Author: James Mazzola

2020 WGC-Mexico Championship PGA Betting Odds & Free Picks

Posted on by James Mazzola

TOURNAMENT PREVIEW – WGC MEXICO

This week the world’s best players head down to Mexico City to compete in the World Golf Classic – Mexico. World Golf Classic events are unique in that the field is based upon the Official World Golf Rankings which rewards points for performance on all tours, weighted according to field strength. This means that, similar to Majors, the field is made up of players from the USA, Europe, Asia and beyond. The top 50 in the OWGR gain automatic entry and the field is completed by adding the highest ranked players from a two-year span on the Euro and PGA tour, the top 2 on the Japan, Australasian, Sunshine and Asian Tour Order of Merits in 2018 and is finished off by adding the top ranked Mexican player in the OWGR. This leaves us with an elite field of 70 and a no cut event giving each player 4 rounds to compete. Before breaking down the course, let’s quickly recap last week.

GENESIS OPEN RECAP

Adam Scott held on down the stretch to secure an outright victory for readers, the first of 2020. Riviera proved to be one of the best tests in golf and the tournament as a whole was outstanding from start to finish. The cream really rose to the top in the first edition of the Genesis with invitational status with guys like Rory, Kuchar, DJ and Matsuyama all making a run and falling short. The fast and firm conditions made Sunday some of the most compelling golf we will see all year and it really provides a blueprint for courses that are looking to challenge golfers with obstacles other than length. Full tournament head to heads featured here went 2-1 and 4-2 overall capping off an extremely profitable week. Onto Mexico!

COURSE PREVIEW

The WGC – Mexico is played at Club Du Golf Chapultepec in the heart of Mexico City. Players will not only have to deal with Montezuma’s Revenge but also by far the highest altitude of any course these guys will play all season. The course is a par 71 that plays at over 7300 yards but with the course sitting at 7500 feet above sea level the players have said it actually plays closer to 6600 yards with players seeing 10-20% more distance on shots depending on which club is used.

Off the tee players are faced with a tight, tree lined fairways. Many European players have commented that the course feels like a Spanish or Italian style track which could account for the fact that Euros have seen a good amount of success here in years past. The course plays relatively straight forward, without many doglegs and due to the altitude players will be taking less than driver off the tee and finding fairways is a premium due to the dense tree lines that will block any wayward tee shots. We are back with the rather rare Kikuya fairways and rough, although players should be used to it by now playing it 3 of the last 5 weeks. Remember, around the greens it can be nasty.

Speaking of the greens, Chapultepec features Poa, the last time we will see the devilish surface for quite some time. That means more variance with the shorter putts due to the natural bumpiness of the greens, but I will say it is not as drastic as what is found with the West Coast Poa. This will also be the case when we head to the Northeast and encounter Poa again later in the season. The greens are rather small by Tour standards and players have commented that the slight undulations can be difficult to read. While I don’t expect to see the putting difficulty we did last week at Riv, players will need to be solid from 5 feet and in to have a chance in Mexico.

The Par 5s here are very scoreable, which gives bombers a slight advantage as they will have even less into these important holes. With conditions looking the same as the last two years in Mexico, it is fair to expect the same favorable scoring positions with the winner coming in anywhere from 16 to 20 under. This means we will need to look for guys who put themselves in position to make a lot of birdies. It is worth noting that 13 of the last 16 WGC winners worldwide have come in at 25-1 or less and considering the hefty purse that comes with winning a WGC, that makes sense. With that said, let’s get to The Plays!

THE PLAYS

Xander Schauffele +2200 – With 13 of 15 WGC winners coming from 25-1 or less, it would be hard to leave the no cut event king off the card. If you look past his yearly missed cut at Torrey (hometown, distractions, who knows but he has sucked there) it is hard to find someone more due that Xander to notch his 5th win on Tour. A 2nd place finish at the Tour Championship to end last year was followed by a playoff loss to Rory at the WGC – HSBC in China and another playoff loss at the Tournament of Champions to Thomas. There is likely nothing here but that is 2 more close calls at no cut events to go along with his 3 no cut event wins. Interesting! His form is solid, gaining 5.6 strokes ball striking last week at the Genesis including a 2 under 69 when the course played its most difficult on Sunday. He struck it well enough to be right there last week, he just couldn’t get any putts to fall, losing over a stroke on the greens over the 4 days. He gained 10 strokes ball striking here last year, suggesting altitude will be no issue. Most readers know that I am a sucker for a ball striking machine that just needs a few putts to fall to content and Xander absolutely fits that bill this week and comes in as my favorite under 25-1 play.

Bryson DeChambeau +3000 – A 5th last week at the Genesis was all I needed to see to secure Masters ticket at 45-1 and I will gladly back him here at slightly lower odds in a far inferior field. I love hearing stories of guys dedicating themselves to changes in their game during the off season, while I’m sure many do, few talk about it. Bryson was open about his desire to gain more distance off the tee and devoted himself to getting stronger to achieve that goal. The results are there as he was first in SG:OTT at WMPO and 3rd at Riv. My issue came from the fact he lost almost 5 Strokes on Approach at the relatively easy WMPO, but his striking performance at the Genesis suggests that is fixed as he returned to his old superb approach form, gaining 3.5 strokes in the category last week. While last year was undoubtedly disappointing, a 2nd at the weak fielded 3M being his best finish, he is less than 2 years removed from wins at Jack’s Tournament and the first and second legs of the 2018 FedEx Cup. A return to that form seems imminent and I will always error on the side of pedigree (he also has US Amateur and NCAA Individual titles) when attempting to determine if a player will bounce back to past form. In a tournament where his new found distance could separate him from the field, I look for DeChambeau to be in the hunt come Sunday.

Carlos Ortiz Top 20 +285 – The University of Texas product will undoubtedly be a fan favorite in his home country of Mexico and he is coming into his first ever WGC event playing some incredible golf. In the field being the highest ranked Mexican player without an automatic invite (he should be thanking Ancer for being so good), Ortiz has jumped between the Korn Ferry Tour and the PGA Tour since he turned pro in 2013 but is now in his second full season playing with the big boys and has put together some impressive performances early on. He has made 10 of his last 11 cuts including back to back top 5 performances to close out 2019. What I like about Ortiz is that his game is solid all around. He has averaged positive strokes gained in each of the big 4 categories over his last 5, 10 and 20 tournaments. It is rare you see that kind of consistency with anyone outside of the elite players. Although he is not from Mexico City, my guess is he has plenty of familiarity with the course and the altitude adjustment should be a piece of cake for the Mexican National. Remember, the field is small this week and where you usually have to best 140+ guys to reach the top 20, this week that number is cut in half. At almost 3/1 I will gladly back a player with his form and familiarity.

THE MATCHUP

2u Kurt Kitayama -1.5 (+120) o Chez Reavie – Reavie is in the midst of one of the worst ball striking stretches of his entire career. Do not be fooled by his 10th last week at the Genesis, he did so behind an unsustainable 6 strokes gained around the greens (meaning he must have chipped in a few times) and 3 strokes gained putting. Striking wise he lost over a stroke ball striking, something he has done 3 out of 5 events in 2020, missing the cut in all 3. Kitayama is little known to regular PGA Tour followers, but Euro enthusiasts are well aware of Kurt’s game. The UNLV product qualified for the 2019 Euro Tour and became the fastest player in history to record two Euro Tour wins, collecting his 2nd in just his 11th start. A T6 late last month in Dubai shows he has picked up right where he left off in 2019 where he fell just shy of winning Euro Tour Rookie of the Year. Kitayama can absolutely move it, ranking 6th in driving distance on on the Euro Tour last year and should benefit greatly from the high altitude. Kitayama is likely a name you should get accustomed to, as his goal is to play full time Stateside but for now we can get him at a discount vs an out of form Reavie.

That is it for this week! As always, thank you for reading and make sure you follow my Twitter @jmazzjd. I’ll be releasing my full card there on Wednesday morning as well as any Outright adds tournament progresses.

2019-20 WGC-HSBC Champions Golf Betting Odds & Picks

Posted on by James Mazzola

THE WGC-HSBC CHAMPIONS PREVIEW

This week the players head to China and the Sheshan International Golf Course for the World Golf Championship – HSBC Invitational. WGCs typically sit just behind major tournaments in terms of prize money and field strength. This final WGC event of the year is no different in terms of potential winnings, but due to it being situated in the swing season the field is considerably weaker than typical WGC events. With that being said we will see Rory, along with past champions Rose and Schauffele out of those in the Top 10 in the world. To be clear, this is by no means a weak field and is far stronger than the previous two Asian Swing events. Deki, Casey, Finau, Fleetwood, Reed and Scott round out a solid group of favorites. We will also see Spieth on a tree lined golf course which usually equals a nice week in head to heads. With that said, let’s take a look at Sheshan International. It is also important to note that a lot of the players competing this week will be coming over from a Euro Tour season that has by no means shut down. Make sure you check current form from those events prior to staking any wagers against players who predominantly compete across the pond.

COURSE PREVIEW

The Sheshan International course is a pretty standard par 72, measuring out at 7,261. Apparently ShotLink doesn’t exist during the Asian Swing, so strokes gained data from past renditions are not available. What is clear is that Sheshan will give up a ton of birdies as winning scores have come in anywhere from 14 to 24 under. The winners list suggests that a top flight player will be successful this week with Xander, Rose, Deki, Watson, DJ, Kaymer, Molinari and Phil being 8 of the last 9 winners. The course features 4 par 5s, all easy and reachable along with a drivable Par 4 at the 16th. The weather looks ton be dry, sunny and calm so I expect another week of low scores.

The greens here are Bentgrass and are, as stated in prior previews, the most preferred surface on Tour. Sheshan’s greens are slightly smaller than Tour average, without dramatic undulations that are often seen. They have played soft in past years, susceptible to approach shots and run anywhere form a 11.5 to a 12.5 on the Stimpmeter. While it is hard to predict who will have the hot putter week to week, it will be important to get it close in order to have plenty of birdie opportunities on these relatively easy greens.

The tree-lined fairways at Sheshan will require players to keep it in play, and the statistics from previous renditions suggest that it is harder to hit these fairways than the average Tour event. Once in the fairway on the Par 4s, players will be playing short irons and wedges into greens. This means length along with driving accuracy will be important over the 4-day no cut tournament.

I have to admit, without strokes gained data from the previous two Asian Swing events and form data due to few of these guys not playing much since the end of the 2019-20 Season this isn’t the worst tournament to take off. There is also zero chance that stops me from looking for a winner so onto the plays!

THE PLAYS

Corey Conners +6350 – Conners notched a win this year way back in April at the Valero Texas Open and after a bit of a rough stretch seems to has regained his form. The thing I love most about Conners this week is that he has played in the previous two Asian Swing events, finishing 6th and 12th, meaning he is completely acclimated to the time change. Throw in a 13th at the Safeway prior to heading overseas and that is three straight T15 finishes. That 13th at the Safeway came on the back of gaining 5 Strokes on Approach and while there isn’t SG data available for his past two finishes, the fact that Corey is 7th on Tour in SG: APP in 2019 makes it easy to surmise how he came upon success the last two weeks. On a course where hitting it close is paramount, getting a previous winner this year at 60/1+ with those proven iron skills is too short a price to pass up.

Ian Poulter +7550 – Sticking with the theme of recent success in Asia, Poulter is extreme value here. A 13th and a 16th finish the last two weeks for the multiple worldwide winner follows the same logic in respect to acclimation in Asia as Conners. While I am by no means a course history truther, when there is a lack of strokes gained data it is necessary to look closer and Poulter’s history at Sheshan is difficult to ignore. He has never finished outside the top 30 in this event (ignore his win here as it was at a different track), including multiple top 10s. Considering his price alongside

Erick Van Rooyen Top 20 +180 – With a small 78-man field the Top 20 market is very much squeezed this but I’m happy to grab an absolute bomber at close to 2/1. Van Rooyen will absolutely gain strokes off the tee this week as he is one of the longest players in the world. His experience amongst PGA players this year is somewhat sparse, but between the Canadian Open, PGA, U.S. Open and British he has gained almost 15 strokes on approach. The issue is Van Rooyen sucks at putting, but if you’ve ever read here you know my soft spot for bad putters. If he brings his Major game to China, he easily has enough to compete with the best.

THE MATCHUPS

2u Cam Smith (+100) o Jordan Spieth – I foreshadowed this play in the intro and Spieth on a course with trees is an auto fade. Spieth threw together a very respectable 8th in Korea at the CJ Cup event, a course where you can absolutely spray it off the tee. That was followed up by a 66th last week which basically equals DFL when you count all the auto exemption guys that got a spot in Japan. Given his finish it is no shocker that the Zozo penalized wayward drives. Spieth simply cannot find the fairway right now. Along with fairways, Spieth seems to be trying to find his game as a whole considering this is his 3rd appearance in a row, a scheduling situation usually reserved for the most fringe Tour players during the Swing Season. While Cam Smith is not the most exciting player to back in a head to head, there is a bit of solace to be taken in the fact that he finished 3rd in his last start and 13th in the start before that. That is what we have on Cam as his stats will now wow you, but this is must more a play on Spieth who seems to simply be broken off the tee.

That is it for this week’s breakdown! Thank you for reading. My Outright plays are below, look for my full card on Wednesday morning and as always feel free to shoot me any questions on Twitter @jmazzjd!

GL!

2019 A Military Tribute at the Greenbrier Golf Betting Odds & Picks

Posted on by James Mazzola

THE GREENBRIER PREVIEW

Welcome back! Remember when the season “ended” 3 weeks ago? Well… It is back! This week players head to The Old White TPC in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia for A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier. The new schedule has pushed this long time event into what is called the “Swing Season,” which basically encompasses every event from here until the normal start of the season in January. While for the most part the big names will take these events off, I love them as they feature a bunch of guys who just gained their card through the Korn Ferry Qualifying. For handicapping purposes, The Greenbrier provides some nice historical data as this has been a mainstay on tour for quite some time. Before we breakdown Old White, lets recap the Tour Championship

TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP RECAP

The end of the 2018/29 season has been more than amazing for readers as Rory McIlroy closes his starting stroke gap to cash his 8/1 Outright recommendation, making 3 straight winners for the article. His season was spectacular and without Brooks going absolutely crazy in Majors, Rory would have been a shoe in for Player of the Year honors. I thoroughly enjoyed the new format for the Tour Championship as it paired the players who have been most successful this season together, all fighting for that $15 million prize. Now all the points are reset and the next think you know you will be reading a Masters Preview article.

COURSE PREVIEW

Old White TPC has some pretty interesting immediate history. In 2016 Old White and 3 other courses were flooded with water covering up to 6 feet in depth. This obviously resulted in the canceling of that rendition of the event, but it also led to a remodel of the course which needed complete reseeding. The resulting course didn’t change much in terms of playability tee to green but the contours on and around the greens are different substantially changed. Players this week will see a classic, tree lined design where any type of player can win.

The course is set at a resort (you will see falconry commercials this week, bet it!) within a National Park “high” up in the Appalachian Mountains, 2000 feet above sea level. This provides a nice advantage for the shorter hitters who can add 10-15 yards onto their drives. The fairways here are wide and the greens are large so this typically turns into a putting contest, making it rather difficult to handicap.

It has been some time since we have seen most of the guys making up this field. Many of them were toiling on the Korn Ferry Tour trying to secure their card, or hanging out at their local country club after being cut early from the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The course lends itself to a multitude of skill sets being successful with its wide fairways and large greens and the fact that form stats are rather old at this point means there is a certain grasping at straws effect when it comes to a statistical analysis this week. Strokes Gained Approach will of course be a staple of my model but I may put a little more credence to putting as opposed to normal weeks. There are only 2 Par 5s at Great White, which is a good thing to note for anyone looking to live bet the event, and it is paramount to score well on them. Ultimately, this is the quintessential week where a “pray and spray” method for outrights will yield the most success and that will be reflected in my full card below. You will also see that I allocated less than my usual 2 units, I plan to enter into the post round market rather than dedicate the full unit amount pre tournament.

THE PLAYS

Scottie Scheffler +5650 – If we are going to dip into the recent Korn Ferry graduates, why not the guy who earned the only fully exempt PGA Tour Status (including a PLAYERS invite) by finishing on top of both the Regular Season Points List as well as the Finals 25 Points list that combined the final three events of the Korn Ferry Finals. Scheffler bagged nine top-10 finishes during the season including a win, then to close the season he won the first Korn Ferry Finals event and parlayed that effort into a T11 and T7 in the subsequent two events. The former University of Texas standout is an absolute ball striking machine, coming in 15th in driving distance and 4th in greens in regulation on the Korn Ferry Tour. Scheffler did manage to qualify for the U.S. Open, barely missing the cut, but proved he could compete in his limited 2018/19 PGA Tour appearances making all 3 cuts. All signs point towards a jump forward with Scheffler, and I am more than happy to get out in front of the market on a guy who absolutely has the game to find himself in the winner’s circle.

Brian Harman +5750 – For anyone who listens to the FORE! Profit Podcast that I co-host with Haven Brown they know my disdain for Harman’s game. A short hitting, inconsistent iron player is not the typical guy I back. However, when there is a lack of quality form stats and the field is as weak as it is here, I typically align myself with players who have shown the ability to close out a tournament. Harman fits this bill with his two PGA Tour wins, but also showed some decent form to end the year. What stands out most is his ability to drive the ball straight as he has gained strokes off the tee in 8 of his last 10 showings. This is difficult to do considering his length and Harman will benefit greatly from the altitude adding distance to his drives. Harman has always been a streaky putter and the fact he will live in the fairway with shorter than usual irons in should equate to excellent green in regulation numbers, giving him a chance if he can get the flat stick going. In a field made up of few guys with winning experience, I’ll take a vet who has proven he can close at 50/1 or better.

THE MATCHUPS

1u Cameron Tringale (+100) over Brenden Grace – In a field full of newcomers, it isn’t surprising to see Tringale high up in my model. His last time out, he was abysmal and that looks to be driving his price down. Prior to a hiccup at the Northern Trust, Tringale was 10/12 on made cuts in 2019 behind a solid all around game. Most importantly though Tringale is a solid putter gaining a full stroke on average per round over his last 10 round. Making putts will be absolutely paramount this week as most players will not struggle to find fairways and greens. Grace is the exact opposite here, showing terrible form to finish off the season where he finished higher than 48th only once since THE PLAYERS. His struggles are predominately on the greens where he he is giving up a stroke and a half per round on average over his last 10 and 20 rounds. In what is sure to be a putting contest, I will take the proven entity that is Tringale’s flat stick over the streaky Grace who has shown very little form in 2019.

That is it for this week’s breakdown! Thank you for reading. My Outright plays are below, look for my full card on Wednesday morning and as always feel free to shoot me any questions on Twitter @jmazzjd!

GL!

The Open Championship 2019 Golf Betting Odds & Picks

Posted on by James Mazzola

This week players from all over the world converge on Northern Ireland in hopes of being crowned Champion Golfer of the Year. The 148th rendition of the world’s oldest Major, The Open Championship (henceforth only referred to as The British), heads to Royal Portrush Golf Club, a course that hasn’t hosted The British since 1951. The Masters is undoubtedly my favorite Major given the history and tradition that comes along with Augusta in April, but in terms of pure entertainment value it doesn’t get any better than The British Open. Starting at 1:30 a.m. ET, 156 golfers will take their turns tackling what looks to be one of the most unique challenges of the year. The best part? WIRE TO WIRE TV coverage, the most of any event all year. This is golf handicapping nirvana considering we spend all year begging to see our longshots actually hit some golf shots. The fact that so many players are in excellent form and the amazing visual experience of that comes from a links course adds to what I’m sure will be an exciting four days. As is always the case with the British Open, weather will be the determining factor in how the course will play. With that said, let’s get into a preview of Northern Ireland’s Royal Portrush Golf Club

COURSE PREVIEW

There is a strong sense of unknown with Royal Portrush. While it hasn’t hosted a British Open since 1951, it was the site of the 2012 Irish Open and this serves as our last viewing of this track in a competitive environment. The problem is that Royal Portrush has undergone somewhat of a face lift since 2012 including two brand new holes and the lengthening of a few tee boxes. What stands now is a Par 71 course that will play up to 7300 yards and while we don’t have an exact read on the course, there are a few traits we can be certain of. First, the greens we normally associate with the British Open are bumpy and not unlike some of the Poa greens seen on the West Coast. Here, the greens are slick and it has been said Royal and Ancient will have them running as fast and firm as possible. Second, it seems as though the fairways are a little wider than normal British fairways but unlike many British tracks the rough looks to be long and penal. Finally, the weather. As with most British Opens, the wind will be the ultimate determining factor in how Royal Portrush plays. This area of the world is well known for strong, unpredictable winds and it isn’t crazy to experience all four seasons in a single day. Depending on the winds Royal Portrush could set up as a bombers paradise or lend itself to short game wizards who are getting up and down from all over. Due to this, the sharpest handicappers will be waiting until a definitive weather report is available before finalizing their card, especially when it comes to head to head betting. Differing wind conditions between early and late tee times can offer an extremely lucrative position as markets tend to be slow to adjust to weather issues, if they adjust at all. In this article I will highlight some positions I have taken prior to a full weather report, but as always check my Twitter feed (@jmazzjd) right up until tee time for my final card.

KEY STATISTICS

If you’re stumbling upon my write up for the first time let me say this: while I incorporate many statistics into my model, current form is the most heavily weighted. It just so happens that current form has been a great predictor of success at the British Open over the last 19 years. 13 of the last 19 champions had won a tournament the same season prior to lifting the Claret Jug. To narrow it to more recent trends, five of the past 6 champions had a win in one of their previous 5 starts, with Zach Johnson being the outlier (he just had 3 top 10 finishes in his 5 prior starts).

The next stat I am going to incorporate is Strokes Gained: Ball Striking which combines Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Strokes Gained: Approach. I want to highlight players who strike the ball consistently and do not have to rely on a hot putter to keep them in this tournament. Guys who are consistently near the top in SG:BS can win in multiple ways. If the wind is down and it turns into a birdie fest, those will be the players with the most birdie opportunities and if the wind is high solid ball striking allows players to control flight and penetrate that wind in tough conditions.

Finally, I am going to be looking at Strokes Gained: Around The Green and 3 Putt Avoidance. If the winds are up I want to highlight players who can grind out a par if greens become difficult to hit. These players typically thrive in tough conditions as a solid all around short game becomes much more important when birdie opportunities are rare.

Now, onto the PICKS!

OUTRIGHT PLAYS

Brooks Koepka +1015 (.79u to win 8u): This is simply an auto bet for the foreseeable future as his record in Majors since his US Open triumph in 2017 simply cannot be ignored. He comes in at 17th in my model due to rather poor current form. I believe this is the result of his entire lack of care for regular Tour events and will ignore his last two results. Even with those two less than stellar showings he is 3rd in Ball Striking over his last 24 rounds and 12th in the Stats portion of my model over his last 50 rounds. There are times when you have to deviate slightly from model results and apply some simple logic. Brooks at Majors is one of those times.

Xander Schauffele +2850 (.28u to win 7.8u): There isn’t a doubt in my mind that Xander is going to break through and win a Major, the question is when rather than if. The British could easily be his time. Along with current form, British Open pedigree has been a key component found in winners. Since 2011 every British winner has finished in the top 10 in the British prior to winning. In Xander’s two starts across the pond he has registered 2nd and 20thn place finishes. On top of the requisite pedigree Xander comes in at 11th in my model, propelled by excellent form pretty much all season long including a 3rd at the US Open and 2nd at The Masters. This is the exact type of player I would rather be too early than too late I will gladly back him at his current number.

Adam Scott +3000 (.26u to win 7.8u): Any winning profile that places an emphasis on ball striking will find Adam Scott on the short list. While I’m weary of the fact he hasn’t played since the US Open, the fact that he has gone 9 straight tournaments without losing strokes to the field putting far outweighs any fear of rust. As a long time Tour vet Scott has had plenty of opportunities to develop his British Open Pedigree and his resume includes numerous top 10s. As is always the case when backing Scott, his success will be determined by his flat stick. Four moderately decent days putting will have Scott right in the thick come Sunday and at this number I’ll gladly grab a share.

Henrik Stenson +3250 (.24u to win 7.8u): Stenson’s Strokes Gained: Approach numbers over his last 10 tournaments are reminiscent of peak Tiger. It is unreal. Over his last 5 tournaments alone he has averaged over 5 strokes gained on approach. Check that ball striking box. A 9th at the US Open and a 4th last week at the Scottish Open show his form is excellent as well. Check another. Finally, if you take a look at the Claret Jug you will find Stenson’s name carved into it. Last box checked. Stenson’s number has obviously plummeted since early offerings but anything over 30/1 for a guy who checks every box is exposure I love.

Jason Day +4250 (.19u to win 8u): The plays thus far have been littered with ball strikers and while peak Jason Day would have definitely been included in amongst the greats, Day has been relying on his short game for success for years now. Knowing this, I found it interesting to see Day’s ball striking has been absolutely superb of late, coming in 4th over his last 8 rounds vs the field and 11th his last twelve while at the same time not gaining many strokes on the greens. To me, this is the perfect storm for Day and a lights out putting weekend is just around the corner from someone who is consistently one of the worlds best with the flat stick. A putting performance in line with his career norm coupled with his current ball striking form is the recipe for a win here and getting 40/1+ is excellent value considering Day’s upside.

Justin Thomas +4250 (.19u to win 8u): JT is the perfect example of why it is important to start building your Major cards far before the week of the tournament. This number is ultimately gone due to his solid performance at the Scottish this last week but was readily available two weeks ago when I released the play on my weekly podcast, Fore! Profit. Prior to his injury at The Honda, JT was in the midst of a career best ball striking run while racking up top 10s. He looks to be back in that form considering his performances striking at The Travelers and The Scottish, but has developed some issues with the putter. A guy with JT’s talent is the kind of player who can turn an issue like that around in a week’s time. If you do back him, you’re probably better off not watching him putt 5 footers, but trust in the talent and take a number at a Major that is so high it is likely never seen again.

Bryson Dechambeau +6050 (.13u to win 7.9u): Another number long gone (and released on the Pod), but I have no issues backing him at 30/1+. I know I am in the minority here, but I love Dechambeau’s game and definitely root for him each week. His pedigree cannot be ignored. NCAA Champ, US Amateur Champ and multiple wins worldwide all before 26. The short list of guys who have accomplished all that are basically the Mount Rushmore of golf, Tiger, Jack, Arnie. Why on earth is he 60-1?! I’m guessing it’s because he isn’t popular and thus his value gets depressed. I’m here to take advantage of that. On top of that, he comes in 14th in my model mostly due to a 2nd and 8th in his last two outings stateside. As with Xander, it is a matter of when, not if as to when Bryson cashes a major and this is another spot where I’ll be early rather than late.

Patrick Reed +8550 (.09u to win 7.7u): Poor Patrick Reed. Guy gets no love. Multiple winner on Tour along with a Green Jacket and he is lumped down here with guys who are struggling to keep their card year to year. I’ll gladly take a bite, especially when I see a glimpse of light with his game. Last two starts? Over 12 strokes gained on approach. That is old school Fatty playing! This number is still readily available and is really just a free square. If things get nasty, he can obviously grind with the best of them and he is definitely not afraid of pressure. This is close your eyes and take a number that is simply incorrect territory. I’ll do it, and probably not root for him.

FULL TOURNAMENT HEAD TO HEAD PLAYS

Chez Reavie -1.5 Strokes (-110) over Bubba Watson (3.3u to win 3u): This is what long time followers know as a drone strike. This is a max bet that is rare and has an insane success rate. There isn’t a single redeeming quality to be found with Bubba’s resume leading up to the British. 3 MCs in his last 5 and simply hates playing courses that don’t “fit his eye.” His British record suggests links courses fit into this category as his history across the pond is riddled with missed cuts and lacks a single top 20. Reavie on the other hand has been playing great and checks in at #14 on my model, powered by a win at the Travelers and a 3rd place finish at the US Open. Reavie’s ball striking has been superb and while his British record leaves a lot to be desired (2 missed cuts) he has never had this kind of form prior. This is much more a fade of Bubba who lacks a single box check and I’ll gladly ride the extremely hot form over a player who has no ambitions of being around for the weekend.

Koepka over Rahm (2u at +100), DJ (2u at -105), Rory (1u at +135): BROOKS KOEPKA SHOULD NOT BE A DOG TO A SINGLE PERSON ON THIS EARTH AT A MAJOR! What more does this guy have to prove? My analysis of Brooks is up top, so let’s talk about the three guys who markets currently think are better than Brooks. While strokes gained data for Euro events is hard to come by I can say this, John Rahm is a mediocre iron player. Obviously an elite driver of the golf ball that will inflate his ball striking numbers, Rahm far too often has tournaments where he loses strokes with the irons. This is most exemplified by him checking in at 60th in SG:BS over his last 8 rounds which includes an excellent finish at the US Open. Further, Rahm’s British Open resume leaves much to be desired with a MC, a 44th and a 59th. Comparing this with Koepka’s affinity towards majors and this bet is a no brainer. DJ is elite, there is no other way to look but for whatever reason he hasn’t been able to consistently perform at the British Open. He has consistently come up short to Brooks in majors and there is no reason to think that doesn’t continue here. Rory, on the other hand, has an excellent British record. A win and a whole slew of top 5s, links golf suits Rory’s game. You will also undoubtedly hear about the pre renovation course record Rory holds at Portrush, achieved when he was just 16 years old. Couple all that with absolutely insane form and fading Rory isn’t something one should be super excited about. The problem is that price. I actually have these two rated similarly but that plus number is too juicy to pass on. I also have questions about Rory going back home for this event. He will undoubtedly be the unspoken host of this tournament and I can see distractions, along with immense pressure, being too much for him. Getting my number 1 golfer at plus money is too good to pass up.

Stenson, Scott, Xander -1.5 Strokes (1u each at +100) over Molinari: The reigning Champion Golfer of the Year has been playing golf very badly and fortunately he’s matched up against three guys I obviously love. You can look above for their analysis so let’s break down Mr. Molinari. Mols has made it pretty clear from his comments that he is enjoying family life and the luxuries that come from not only winning the British Open but coming VERY close to a Green Jacket. There is a narrative that the final round with Tiger took it out of Molinari. Since the Masters his putter has completely lost him and his striking has been nothing exciting whatsoever. A 16th at the US Open was entirely the result of some lucky chip ins. He ranks outside the top 30 in every form metric used in my model and is priced with guys I believe will be in contention come Sunday. I was on Molinari here last year but this year he will be a full fade.

The British Open is very unique in that the weather can change at the drop of a dime. Due to this I will be releasing my full card via Twitter (@jmazzjd)Wednesday evening in the hopes of having the best knowledge of possible advantages. As always my DMs are open for any questions and I hope everyone enjoys The 2019 Open Championship!

GL.