Author: John Ryan

Let us start with a look at some player and team situational trends that support the Machine Learning gradings for the ‘OVER’ bet. LA Dodgers will start veteran and future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw and he has posted a team record of 17-5 ‘over’ when starting against a team with a losing record in starts spanning the last three seasons. The Giants are on a 7-0 ‘OVER’ run in home games and facing a team with an excellent bullpen sporting a 1.35 WHIP on the season. The Giants are also a solid 24-10 ‘OVER’ in home games and facing elite teams that are outscoring their opponents by an average of 0.5 runs-per-game in games played over the last two seasons.

What do the Current Betting Lines Tell Us?

Looking at the betting lines I can tell you the Dodgers are 18-6 ‘OVER’ as a road favorite of -175 or greater in games played over the last two seasons. Kershaw’s team record is 17-6 ‘OVER’ after a start where he allowed one or no earned runs in starts spanning his last three seasons.

This is the second game of a four-game series between these NL West Divisional favorites. Last night the Giants won 10-8 over the Dodgers in a barnburner type of game, which ended the Dodgers four-game win streak and extended the Giants current win streak to seven straight. The Dodgers have won 11 of their last 13 games since August 12 and scored at least 7 runs in 7 of these games. Over these 13 games, the Dodgers have averaged 6.85 RPG and allowed a skinny 3.69 RPG and results in a dominating 3.16 RPG differential. Since August 12th, the Giants offense has risen from the phoenix averaging 6.25 RPG, but have allowed 5.25 RPG, which opens the door for the Dodgers to have another huge offensive night.

Current Lines and Best Prices

Despite the loss the Dodgers with Kershaw on the hill are lined as -250 favorites at DraftKings and thew MGM has the lowest currently with Dodgers as -238 road chalk. Bet America has the best ‘OVER’ line currently with a price of 8 runs and -108 vig. Fox Bet is sitting at 8.5 runs and +105 vig as there has been a steady increase in public small-sized bets on the ‘UNDER’.

BetDSI is lined at 8-runs a vig of just -105, but I do not think that line will remain at -105 for long. So, if you want the ‘OVER’ do yourself a favor and get on board at BetDSI.

Cody Bellinger is Red Hot, Finally

During this Dodger winning streak, Cody Bellinger, has shrugged off a horrible start to the season, sporting 10-for-23 hitting including 4 home runs, two doubles, and has increased his OPS a significant 195 basis points. So, the Dodgers have the potential to score 8 or more runs in any game no matter, who the opponent has on the mound.

How is Clayton Kershaw Pitching?

I cannot imagine there is even a single person that would not agree that Kershaw is a sure-thing first ballot Hall-of-Fame elected player. In recent seasons he has had to reinvent himself as his fastball just was not having the speed or heavy sinking movement it had when he was younger. He has thrown far less fastballs and has been able to throw more sliders with different break points keeping batters off balance even if he throws the slider 5 times in a row.

For his career he has thrown fastball an average of 55%, but in 2020 his fastball accounts for just 40% of the pitches thrown. His slider accounts for 43% and his slow-motion looping curve that sometimes travels at 65 MPH is used 17% of the time. So, batters cannot sit fastball on the first pitch because they just do not know what pitch will be thrown. More batters are taking his first pitch and if it is a first pitch strike the batter’s batting average drops 80 basis points. Talk about batting in a hole.

Have Any Current Giants Had Success Against Kershaw?

The overall point is that Kershaw is not always dominating in recent years. Three current Giants have had strong success against Kershaw. Donovan Solano is batting 0.316 with 2 walk and 4 Ks in 16 at-bats, Wilmer Flores is batting 0.294 with a home run, a walk, and 4 Ks, and Evan Longoria is batting 0.292 in 24 at-bats.

How Has Giants Starter Gausman Done vs the Dodgers Lineup?

Kevin Gausman will start for the Giants and I do expect him to get hit hard and often against the Dodgers lineup. Mookie Betts is batting 0.375 with 3 home runs, 7 RBI, in 40 at-bats. Overall, the current members of the Dodgers have batted 0.268 with five home runs and 15 RBI in a slightly small sample size of 100 at-bats.

Gausman is a solid starting pitcher, but in 2020 he has had trouble finishing off batters with outs after being ahead in the count. He has thrown 501 pitches to 133 batters for an average of 3.76 pitches per batter, which is a solid ratio, but many of these at-bats are ending with his hits. Opponents are batting 0.274 with a 0.303 on-base-percentage that reflects that his pitches are getting far too much of the plate and strike zone that enable batters to barrel up these pitches. The Dodgers are excellent at working counts and you can bet they are going to be sitting and looking for spots in the strike zone to hammer into the gaps.

Summary of the Machine Learning Tools and Projections

The Dodgers are 193-18 ‘OVER’ in games installed as a -175 favorite or greater and scoring six or more runs in games played since 2004. The Dodgers are 43-14-8 ‘OVER’ as a -175 or greater favorite and scoring six runs exact and 8-2 ‘OVER’ in road games since 2004.

The Giants are 31-5-4 ‘OVER’ when installed as a 175 or greater underdog when the opponent has scored six or more runs since 2004 and 7-4 ‘OVER’ when the opponent has scored six runs exact. The Giants are 14-6 for 70% ‘Over’ bets in home games and installed as 175 or greater underdogs.

Pick: MLB 7-star Best Bet ‘OVER’ Dodgers – Giants

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Oakland Athletics (12-5) vs. LA Angels (6-11)
Michael Fiers (R) vs. Dylan Bundy (R)
9:40 PM EST Tuesday, August 11, 2020

Oakland Vs. LA Angels Free Pick Tuesday

For those new to my methods that span 25+ seasons, I use a simple 7 and 10-Star rating with the caveat that the 10-Star never exceeds 7% of your total bankroll. If you are a Dime Player, I would recommend $700 for the 7-Star and $1,000 for the 10-Star plays. I have made over $57K for the Dime Player since April of 2018. My approach is based on the long-term and not just a single day or even a week.

So, in this matchup of AL West members, the A’s are a road dog as they face the Angels starter Dylan Bundy, who is making his fourth start and has been dominating sporting a 2.08 ERA and o.600 WHIP. Bundy has a solid fastball with an above-average movement that drops an average of 8 inches and with an average of 7.4 inches of arm-side movement. The horizontal tailing action is late and gets in on the hands of a right-handed hitter making it nearly impossible to barrel up the pitch.

Bundy is Off to a Great Start

Bundy has three other pitches that combine for 50% and with the other half consisting of the sinker. He throws sliders at 82% MLB and accounts for about 20% of all pitches thrown, a change up that he uses mostly to left-handed batters accounts for 15%, and then a frisbee-type curve ball that averages 75MPH the remainder of the pitches thrown. So, he is not blazing fast by modern standards, but he has an array of pitches that have kept batters off balance so far this season.

Bundy was drafted in the first round of the 2011 draft by the Baltimore Orioles and was fortunately able to leave town and get on a team that at least has contender potential. He has faced the A’s in prior seasons and has allowed a 0.260 batting average with five home runs allowed spanning 94 at bats to the current players on the A’s roster. Based on my machine learning tools there is strong evidence that Bundy is going to struggle against the A’s lineup.

Are There Any Strong Betting Systems?

Here is a solid and consistent money maker that has earned a 58-38 record for 62% winners that bets on underdogs and has averaged a +138 dog line. The query instructs us to play on underdogs of +120 to +165 that have an excellent bullpen sporting an ERA of 3.75 or lower and is now facing a team with a hot starter posting a WHIP of 1.000 or lower over his last three starts and an opponent that has struggled at the plate batting 0.260 or lower.

Take the Oakland A’s tonight as a road underdog. The line you get is just fine and always do the best you can by using the best lines available. I have them at +148 right now at the MGM.

The Current State of MLB

MLB appears to have stabilized after the COVID-19 scares on a few teams put the season in jeopardy. The 60-game sprint is nearing the 1/3 complete level for the majority of the teams and with a few stunners so far. For instance, the Pittsburgh Pirates are 3-13 and their season is all but done at this point. They have lost a league-leading 6-games by one-run and just have not played well overall to date, but it does not mean they cannot win games in upset fashion. The Pirates are going to be priced attractively as the public sentiment for them cannot get worse. I do see them coming up on my radar in games played over the next few weeks so stay tuned for those big dog plays.

NL Current Conditions

The MLB format this season will include the two top teams in each division plus two more teams sporting the highest win percentage from each league that are not among the two top teams. The Colorado Rockies are off to a fast 11-5 start, but are only ½ game ahead of the LA Dodgers in the NL West Division race. The Rockies roster is designed for the 60-game sprint and I do not in any way see this start as a fluke.

The shocker though are the Marlins, who are tied with the Atlanta Braves for the NL East lead. The Marlins are 7-3, but due to the COVID-19 hit have played 7 games fewer than the Braves. Double headers will be frequent for the Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies moving forward. However, do not for one second underestimate the Marlins, who have loads of extremely talented arms and hitters on their roster.

American League Status

The Oakland A’s (12-5) and their money ball Billy Beane-driven approach to the game are alive and well in the Bay area. They sport a 12-5 record, which is best in the League and hold a comfortable lead over the stumbling Houston Astros, who are just 7-9 on the season. The A’s are in position to run away from the other Divisional opponents (Texas, Seattle, Angels) right now if their third-best in MLB pitching staff (3.10 ERA and 1.113 WHIP) continue dominating opponents.

What Team Has Hit the Most Home Runs in MLB?

It is not the New York Yankees, Dodgers, or Minnesota Twins, who led the MLB to a destruction of the league-record for most home runs in a season in 2019. Surprisingly, the league leaders this season are the San Diego Padres with 30 ‘dingers’ followed by the Dodgers with 29, LA Angels with 28, the Yankees with 27, and the Atlanta Braves with 26 rounding out the Top-5.

After Aaron Judge helped the Yankees get out to a fast start using the home run they have run cold as a team of late. The Yankees rank ninth in MLB averaging 4.94 runs-per-game and their pitching staff has grossly underperformed, ranking 20th with a team ERA of 4.30 on the season. I am not going to back the Yankees on the premise they are going to revert back to their mean performance because these levels may be their mean norm. I recommend caution over the next week in backing the Yankees, who will have inflated lines.

This BangTheBook article details a few key parameters fitting for an MLB season that concludes with a strong betting system that you can bet with confidence. I know I will be doing that. So, without further ado, let’s get started.

During a 162-game season teams will get scorching hot and icy cold for short periods of time. There are always outliers, for instance, as the St. Louis Cardinals went nuts in the last two months of last season. In a 60-game sprint, the peaks and valleys will not be as large and the urgency of teams to stop losing streaks will make the next game akin to a must-win environment.

4-Game Losing Streaks

Public opinion points to the Yankees juggernaut winning at least 40 games and some hecklers say they could win all 62 of the 60-games on the schedule. I meant that actually, but returning back to a serious tone if the Yankees, for instance, lose four straight games they will have to win 40 of 56 games to win the American League East, in my opinion. So, it depends on when the losing streak starts to rear its’ ugly head that does matter most.

Getting Off to A Fast Start

So, getting off to a fast start to the first 20 games will allow those teams a chance to recover from a four-game losing streak. If the goal is to get to 40-wins, then a team can have 20 losses (obviously) over the 60-game sprint. However, a four-game losing streak also means a total of just 16 losses over a 56-game sample size that is split in two parts by the four-game losing streak. That equates to a 0.714 win percentage over those 56-games, which few teams have ever attained.
Take the Phillies to Win the East

A fast start is what has made Bryce Harper a feared batter in April. I know it is July, but he is rested and motivated and is the type of player – like a Trout – that can carry a team on his back. I am swinging for the fences and putting a reasonable amount on the Phillies to win the NL East and the NL Pennant.

The MLB 60-Game Sprint Betting System

Since 2004, teams that are on a losing streak of not more than 4 games and have hit 15 extra-base-hits over their last three games are a solid 19-13 straight-up (SU) for 59.4% winning bets, averaging a -115 favorite betting line, and produced a handsome 15.1% return-on-investment (ROI). These teams are an even better 15-9 for 63% using the Run Line) and producing an eye-opening 25% ROI since 2004. Extra-base-hits are doubles, triples, and home runs. So, we want teams that hit for power and average both and not just one or the other.

What About the Pitching?

Teams that are on no more than a 4-game losing streak, installed as not greater than a -135 favorite, and their bullpen has allowed no more than one run (earned or unearned) spanning the last three games have earned a SU 62-30 record for 67% winning bets and a solid 9.2% ROI since 2004.

Second Game of a Double Header

In the second game of a double-header teams that lost Game 1 and have no more than a 4-game losing streak, have a starting pitcher on the bump that completed seven or more innings of work, and are facing an opponent that has now won 8-of-10 games are a near-perfect 6-1. Teams playing the next day off a loss in this identical scenario have earned a 41-37 for 53% winning bets and a nice 7% ROI, but an even more impressive 36-24 using the Run Line for a 16% ROI in games played since 2004.

Slicing the data set to include teams that have won at least 55% of their games improves the MLB 60-game betting system to a 14-11 SU record and a 7% ROI, but a jaw-dropping 15-7 record using the RL for a 32% ROI.

Summary of the MLB 60-Game Sprint Betting System

The takeaways from this MLB 60-game sprint betting system is to identify teams that are strong hitting teams that are near the top in the extra-base-hit category and need to stop a losing streak of not more than four games. Moreover, getting a starting pitcher that completed seven more innings of work or a hot bullpen that allowed one or fewer runs despite losing no more than four games is another money-making situation.

I will be updating this article once the season starts and it will otherwise, I am going to increase my ownership in ALL publicly-held craft beer companies and go visit Mr. Adam Burke so he can help guzzle them down with me on some desolate golf course he talks about on the Podcast. But seriously, stay safe, and if you are in any area, especially the area I live in, have respect for others and wear the mask. I am the first to admit it sucks to wear one, like doing the honey-do list (she will not read this, I hope), but it protects others, yourself, and is respecting all people.