Author: BTB Staff

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Michigan Wolverines Odds, Pick, Prediction 12/31/22

Posted on by BTB Staff

The first semi-final game of the college football playoffs will take place on Saturday, December 31, so make sure you don’t miss out on the best Horned Frogs vs. Wolverines betting pick and odds.

TCU and Michigan will be battling for a place in the college football playoff finals when they face at State Farm Stadium. The Wolverines are -7.5 favorites on BetOnline Sportsbook, while the total is set at 58.5 points. These non-conference rivals have never met before.

Horned Frogs lost the Big 12 Championship game

The No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs (12-1-0, 9-3-1 ATS) suffered their first defeat of the season as they fell short of the Kansas State Wildcats in the Big 12 Championship game. The Frogs entered this tilt unbeaten, and even though they scored 11 points in the fourth quarter to tie the score at 28-28 and force overtime, the Wildcats won the title thanks to Ty Zentner’s 31-yard field goal. TCU still did enough in the regular season to earn its first playoff appearance in the program’s history and will have a chance to fight for the first national title since 1938.

Max Duggan completed 18 of 36 passes for 251 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He was excellent on the ground as he led his team with 110 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries. Kendre Miller also scored a rushing TD as he collected 82 yards on 17 attempts. Taye Barber was on the receiving end of Duggan’s lone TD pass, while Quentin Johnston had a game-high 139 yards on four catches. On defense, Dylan Horton was credited with two of the team’s three sacks, while Shadrach Banks chipped in a game-high ten tackles.

Wolverines won the Big Ten Championship game

The No. 2 Michigan Wolverines (13-0-0, 8-4-1 ATS) ended the season as one of just two unbeaten teams (Georgia) and they did it in style with a massive win over the Purdue Boilermakers in the Big Ten Championship game. The Wolverines scored 29 of their 43 points in the second half to secure a 43-22 victory even though the Boilermakers were better in total yards (456-386) and first downs (27-17). Still, Michigan’s defense allowed only nine second-half points to earn a win and the 44th conference title.

J.J. McCarthy completed 11 of 17 passes for 161 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. Donovan Edwards was an absolute monster on the ground with a game-high 185 yards and a touchdown on 25 attempts. Ronnie Bell led the Wolverines with 67 receiving yards and a TD on five catches, while Luke Schoonmaker and Colston Loveland also contributed a receiving touchdown apiece. Defensively, Will Johnson produced a couple of interceptions, Jaylen Harrell had two sacks, and Junior Colson was rock-solid with a game-high 15 tackles.

RB Blake Corum is expected to miss the rest of the season after having surgery to repair a left knee injury.

Trends:

TCU:

  • 3-7 ATS in the last ten Bowl games
  • 4-11 ATS in the last 15 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game
  • 4-11 ATS in the last 15 neutral site games

Michigan:

  • 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 games overall
  • 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game
  • 5-0 ATS in the last five games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Michigan Wolverines Pick

Both teams have high-octane offenses and we’re going to have a spectacle on Saturday, but on this occasion, I am backing a more experienced team with a stronger defense. Michigan has the fifth-best defense in the country allowing 13.4 points per game and the third-best run defense that surrenders just 85.2 yards per game to the opposing running backs. The Wolverines will be without their top RB Blake Corum (1,463 yards and 18 touchdowns), but Donovan Edwards is more than capable of filling Corum’s boots, and he proved that against Purdue with a 185-yard performance.

Pick: Take the Wolverines at -6.5 (-133)

The Total

Although I am backing Michigan’s defense to prevail in this one and make some crucial stops, I still expect to see a high-scoring affair. TCU is averaging 40.3 points per game (6th in football), while the Wolverines are scoring 40.1 ppg. Michigan scored 34+ points in four of its last five games, while the Horned Frogs failed to score 28+ points just once this season. Over is 4-1 in the Horned Frogs’ last five non-conference games; Over is 10-4 in the Wolverines’ previous 14 Bowl games, while Over is 14-4 in Michigan’s last 18 neutral site games.

Pick: Go Over 58.5 points (-110)

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Kansas State Wildcats Odds, Pick, Prediction 12/31/22

Posted on by BTB Staff

We have four NCAAF Bowl games scheduled for Saturday, December 31, and you can’t afford to miss out on the best Crimson Tide vs. Wildcats betting pick and odds.

Alabama and Kansas State will be fighting for the Sugar Bowl when they meet at the Caesars Superdome. The Crimson Tide are -6.5 favorites on MyBookie Sportsbook, while the total is set at 56 points. These non-conference rivals will meet for the first time.

Crimson Tide dismantled Auburn at home

The Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2-0, 6-6-0 ATS) bounce back from a tight 32-31 overtime road loss to the LSU Tigers with three consecutive wins to finish the regular season. The Crimson Tide didn’t have problems against the Auburn Tigers in a 49-27 home victory. The game was pretty much decided in the opening half as the Tide scored 35 points and allowed 14 in return and then they just maintained a big lead to get a W. Alabama totaled 516 yards opposite Auburn’s 395.

Bryce Young completed 20 of 30 passes for 343 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. He also added 48 rushing yards and a TD on five carries. Jahmyr Gibbs led the team with 76 yards and a score on 17 attempts, while Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams found the end zone on the ground as well. Jermaine Burton led all the receivers with 87 yards on three catches, while Ja’Corey Brooks (76 yards and a TD on four receptions), Traeshon Holden, and Jase McClellan scored receiving touchdowns. Defensively, Will Anderson Jr. had two of the team’s four sacks, while Deontae Lawson posted a team-high nine tackles.

Wildcats won the Big 12 Championship

The Kansas State Wildcats (10-3-0, 9-3-1 ATS) ended the regular season with three wins and reached the Big 12 Championship game where they beat the TCU Horned Frogs in overtime to claim their first conference title since 2012. It was a wild game in which the Wildcats had a 28-17 lead midway through the fourth quarter, but the Horned Frogs managed to tie and force overtime. Ty Zentner hit a game-winning 31-yard field goal to win the championship for Kansas State and hand TCU its first loss of the campaign.

Will Howard completed 18 of 32 passes for 199 yards and two touchdowns. He contributed with a rushing touchdown as well but Deuce Vaughn was the one who led all the runners with 130 yards and a score on 26 carries. In the air, Ben Sinnott and RJ Garcia II each recorded a touchdown, while Phillip Brooks led the team with 48 yards on six receptions. On defense, Daniel Green had a game-high ten tackles.

WR Malik Knowles has an unknown injury, and his status for the Sugar Bowl against Alabama is unclear.

Trends:

Alabama:

  • 10-4 ATS in the last 14 non-conference games
  • 5-1 ATS in the last six Bowl games
  • 4-1 ATS in the last five neutral site games

Kansas State:

N/A

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Kansas State Wildcats Pick

Considering the numbers, Alabama has a better offense and defense. The Tide has the fourth-best offense in the country that averages 40.8 points per game opposite Kansas State’s 33.2 ppg. When it comes to defense, Alabama allows 18.0 ppg, while the Wildcats are allowing 20.1 ppg. Kansas State could be without its best receiver Malik Knowles, and if he doesn’t play the Tide’s chances to win the Sugar Bowl will grow. Bama also has a top-20 pass defense that surrenders 186.0 yards per game to the opposing receivers, so the Wildcats will find it hard to move the chains through the air.

Pick: Take the Crimson Tide at -4.5 (-133)

The Total

Alabama scored at least 30 points in each of its last six games and the Tide have a top-30 pass offense that averages 278.3 yards per contest. The Wildcats allow 216.9 ypg to the opposing receivers, so I am backing Bryce Young to have a 250+ passing-yard display on Saturday and multiple touchdowns. Kansas State also scored 30+ points in each of its previous four games, but the Wildcats allowed 27+ in each of the past three. Over is 7-2 in the Crimson Tide’s last nine Bowl games, while Over is 4-1 in the Wildcats’ previous five games following a straight-up win.

Pick: Go Over 55.5 points (-125)

UFC on ESPN 28: Hall vs. Strickland Betting Odds, Picks, & Predictions

Posted on by BTB Staff

Uriah Hall and Sean Strickland may not carry the weight as Derrick Lewis and Ciryl Gane, literally and figuratively, but this week’s UFC on ESPN 28 card has the chance to be a good lead-in to the next big pay-per-view card coming up on August 7.

Before we get to that point, we have this week’s UFC Vegas 33 card at the Apex. There are 13 fights scheduled for this card with that Hall vs. Strickland main event. Coming off of an outstanding card with a great main event and some questionable judging, we’ll have to see what the July 31 card has in store for us.

To do that, we’ll use the odds from BetOnline Sportsbook to break down the 13 matches on the card this weekend and spend a little extra time on the main card fights.

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Phil Rowe (+128) vs. Orion Cosce (-148); Total: 1.5 (-180/150)

Phil Rowe lost his first fight under contract to Gabe Green back in February. He was a Dana White Contender Series winner over Leon Shahbazyan in August 2019, but it took a while for his first fight. That came at UFC 258. He’s now the opener of this card against Orion Cosce, who has been waiting for his first contract fight after beating Matt Dixon on DWCS this past August.

Cosce’s win pushed his record out to 7-0. He’s giving up a lot of size here, but seems to be the better striker. Rowe has fought at higher levels and has a better ground game. It’s a tough fight to call.

Trevin Jones (+135) vs. Ronnie Lawrence (-155); Total: 2.5 (-115/-115)

Trevin Jones slots in as a late replacement for John Castaneda in this one. Jones is technically 2-0 in UFC, but his win over Timur Valiev was eradicated because of a positive pot test. Jones faces Ronnie Lawrence here, as Lawrence looks to improve to 8-1 in his career. His lone loss came in Bellator back in 2016 and he was away from MMA for a while after that.

Lawrence returned in February 2019 and just scored his first UFC contract win back in February. Jones got his first official one the first week of March. This fight would seem to be a closer call than the line indicates, as Jones has gotten better with age.

Jinh Yu Frey (+120) vs. Ashley Yoder (-140); Total: 2.5 (-400/300)

The judges made a lot of questionable decisions last week, but they may be called upon here with heavy over juice in the fight between Jinh Yu Frey and Ashley Yoder. Frey, a former champ in Invicta, is just 1-2 in her three UFC fights. Yoder has lost three of her last four, but at least they’ve all been against UFC competition.

With a decision likely in the smaller Octagon, Yoder’s big size edge might be the difference here. Neither fighter has fared well lately, so that seems like about all we can go on for this one.

Danny Chavez (-103) vs. Kai Kamaka III (-117); Total: 2.5 (-200/160)

Danny Chavez is 1-1 in his two UFC fights to this point, as he topped TJ Brown and lost to Jared Gordon. Kai Kamaka III is 1-2, with losses in each of his last two fights, including one to Brown as a common opponent. The two losses for Kamaka come on the heels of a six-fight winning streak that included stops in Bellator and LFA.

Chaves had won four in a row. Neither guy fought great competition on the way up the ranks and this fight does seem as even as the line suggests. Neither guy has a lot of paths to victory either. This is a tough fight to find an edge.

Chris Gruetzemacher (+255) vs. Rafa Garcia (-305); Total: 2.5 (-140/110)

This is a big fight for 35-year-old Chris Gruetzemacher. He is just 1-3 in his last four UFC fights, including a loss in October to Alexander Hernandez. It was his first fight since April 2018. Maybe he’ll be in a better spot with a shorter turnaround here against Rafa Garcia, but the heavy line suggests that he won’t be.

The 26-year-old Garcia was one of several recent Combate Americas fighters to head to the UFC. He lost his debut fight to Nasrat Haqparast by unanimous decision in March, but it came with a 13-month layoff. He should be in better shape here, making him a solid money line parlay piece.

Collin Anglin (+110) vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan (-130); Total: 2.5 (-140/110)

Collin Anglin was impressive enough in his Dana White Contender Series win back on September 15 to get a crack here against Melsik Baghdasaryan, a 29-year-old Armenian who fought a couple weeks prior in his own Contender Series match. That win was the first for Baghdasaryan to not come via knockout, as he needed to full 15 minutes with Dennis Buzukja.

This is a very interesting fight because we have two 5-foot-9 knockout artists in the smaller UFC Octagon at the Apex. The under 2.5 at plus money is screaming for a bet here, given that both guys had finished their previous four fights by KO/TKO because tightening up a bit on the Contender Series. With contracts in hand, we should see some more aggressiveness.

Wu Yanan (+205) vs. Nicco Montano (-240); Total: 2.5 (-300/240)

Wu Yanan came to the UFC with quite a pedigree and a lot of promise. She also had a record of 10-2. She has lost three of her four UFC fights and was badly outclassed by Joselyne Edwards last time out. She’ll try her luck with Nicco Montano here. Montano has not been able to stay healthy. The TUF 26 winner has only fought once since that December 1, 2017 match. It was a loss to Julianna Pena.

This is a big price to put on Montano, who has been suspended for a banned substance, hospitalized after a weight cut, injured, and has had travel issues. It has been a litany of things for Montano. As much as Yanan has struggled, how could you lay the -240 here with the odyssey that has been Montano’s UFC career?

Jason Witt (+235) vs. Bryan Barberena (-275); Total: 2.5 (140/-170)

Jason Witt will try to climb to even in his UFC career with the opener on the main card against Bryan Barberena. Witt is 1-2 after losses to Takashi Sato and Marcus Semelsberger. His lone win came back on Halloween over Cole Williams. The 34-year-old Witt is on the last fight of his contract and his two losses have been by knockout in 66 combined seconds.

He’ll need to show something here as a big underdog to Barberena. Barberena has not faired well recently either, as he is just 2-3 in his last five fights and beat a nobody in late replacement Anthony Ivy last time out. It took him the full three minutes to do it as well. Neither one of these guys seems to be worthy of your money, but Barberena is the pick.

Pick: Bryan Barberena

Zarrukh Adashev (+118) vs. Ryan Benoit (-138); Total: 2.5 (-200/160)

Zarrukh Adashev is 0-2 in UFC after losses to Tyson Nam and Su Mudaerji. The 28-year-old native of Uzbekistan takes on Ryan Benoit here in search of his first UFC victory. The line is pretty close, as Benoit was originally supposed to fight Adashev back at UFC 262, but Benoit had major issues with the weight cut and was taken off the card.

He even came in three pounds overweight for that fight. Benoit had lost two in a row and three of four prior to that bout getting canceled. Now he hasn’t fought in over a year. The health and state of Benoit seems to be a major question with a similar weight cut here. Adashev hasn’t been great in the UFC, but he has to be the pick here.

Pick: Zarrukh Adashev

Niklas Stolze (+170) vs. Jared Gooden (-200)

A late switcheroo gave us this fight, as Mounir Lazzez could not secure a visa to fight Niklas Stolze. It will be Jared Gooden that takes the fight on short notice and serves as the favorite. Stolze lost his UFC debut to Ramazan Emeev just over a year ago. Gooden comes in having lost both of his UFC fights. This seems like a pretty optimistic line for a guy that has not fought good competition throughout his career.

Gooden has lost to Alan Jouban and Abubakar Nurmagomedov. Stolze isn’t exactly experienced at the top levels either. There is no major size advantage. There is only one combined stoppage loss between the two. It is hard to see an edge in this fight, other than to say that Stolze was at least preparing for one.

Pick: Niklas Stolze

Gloria de Paula (+155) vs. Cheyanne Buys (-180); Total: 2.5 (-350/275)

Gloria de Paula lost to Jinh Yu Frey back in March in her first contract fight. It was her third career unanimous decision loss. With this one looking to go to a decision, impressing the judges will be important. Cheyanne Buys has gone 4-2 in her decision matchups, with her most recent result a loss to Montserrat Conejo. That was her first contract fight as well.

These two 26-year-olds have a big opportunity here. Buys, who at least had a stop in LFA, seems to have fought better competition on her way up. Neither fighter was aggressive in those recent losses. As crazy as this line is, it looks like the over 2.5 at -350 is the play here. Parlay it with Rafa Garcia on the undercard to cut down the vig a bit.

Pick: Over 2.5

Rani Yahya (+109) vs. Kyung Ho Kang (-129); Total: 2.5 (-140/110)

You probably can’t go wrong with trying Rani Yahya by submission in this fight. Yahya is 27-10-1 in his career and has 21 wins by submission. He has never recorded a knockout and probably won’t start now. Submission is the preferred method of victory for both guys, as Kyung Ho Kang has 11 wins by sub in his career out of 17 victories.

We haven’t seen Kang since December 21, 2019 when he beat Liu Pingyuan for his second straight split-decision triumph. Yahya has fought twice since with a win and a draw. For all of the submission wins that these two have accumulated, they’ve each only lost by submission once. That has to bring the over 2.5 into play.

Pick: Over 2.5

Uriah Hall (+183) vs. Sean Strickland (-213); Total: 3.5 (-115/-115)

The resurgence of Uriah Hall may come to an end here against Sean Strickland. At least that’s what the odds say. Hall has won four in a row, though his most recent fight will be remembered more for the devastating knee injury suffered by Chris Weidman. We don’t know what would have happened the rest of the way, but Hall had won his three previous fights as well.

Sean Strickland, who checks in at 23-3 here, rides his own four-fight winning streak into this bout. The 30-year-old Strickland has a few years on the 36-year-old Hall, who is coming back in four months from that Weidman fight. He can do that because of the circumstances, but this is the first time since 2018 that Hall has fought twice in a year.

Strickland went the full 15 with Krzysztof Jotko on May 1 and won that fight by unanimous decision. This is his fight to lose, especially with the championship rounds in play.

Pick: Sean Strickland

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UFC on ESPN 27: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw Betting Odds, Picks, & Predictions

Posted on by BTB Staff

A busy fight card for both the men and the women comes your way from the UFC Apex on Saturday July 24 for UFC on ESPN 27. There are 12 fights in total on the card, including four women’s fights, so it will be a good night for the females and the men on Saturday.

It will also be a good card for those without an ESPN+ subscription because the entirety of the card will be broadcast on regular ESPN. The main event features a couple of familiar names in Cory Sandhagen and TJ Dillashaw, as Dillashaw returns from a two-year suspension for a banned substance.

We’ll use the odds from BetOnline Sportsbook to break down all 12 fights on the card.

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Diana Belbita (+114) vs. Hannah Goldy (-134); Total: 2.5 (-285/225)

We begin in the women’s strawweight division with Diana Belbita and Hannah Goldy. Goldy is the modest favorite here against Belbita, who is 0-2 in her UFC fights, with losses to Liana Jojua and Molly McCann. Goldy was a winner in her Dana White Contender Series match, but then lost her fight contract fight to Miranda Granger.

Goldy hasn’t fought since 8/3/19 and Belbita is fighting as a strawweight for the first time after two flyweight fights. There are just too many unknowns and variables here.

Elise Reed (+285) vs. Sijara Eubanks (-345); Total: 2.5 (-175/145)

Elise Reed is 4-0 as she makes her UFC debut against Sijara Eubanks. Reed has three wins in CFFC since August 13 and also won her Bellator debut back on October 25, 2019. The 28-year-old Reed just fought on May 29 and scored her second career knockout victory. She does draw a UFC veteran here in Sijara Eubanks, but one not really worthy of this big of a favorite role.

Eubanks went 2-2 in 2020, but lost her two most recent fights. Each of her last 10 fights has gone to a decision. She’s lost four of the last six. This is the right kind of spot to take an underdog, an aggressive underdog that will look to finish this fight and that should make Eubanks very uncomfortable. Reed is a good bet for an upset.

Andre Ewell (+165) vs. Julio Arce (-190); Total: 2.5 (-225/185)

Andre Ewell has had four lackluster performances in a row as he gets set to take on Julio Arce. Ewell is 2-2 in those fights, but has two split-decision wins, a unanimous decision loss, and a knockout loss. He’s out there for the long haul in every fight, as each of the last eight fights has gone into the third round. He is just 4-3 in seven UFC fights and has three split-decision wins.

Julio Arce is back off of a long layoff. We haven’t seen him since UFC 244 against Hakeem Dawodu. Arce is certainly getting the benefit of the doubt here with this line. This looks like a pretty tricky fight to bet. Ewell has a big size advantage, which has helped with the decision wins, so maybe you look at him at +165 in a fight likely to go the distance.

Randy Costa (+185) vs. Adrian Yanez (-220); Total: 1.5 (-145/115)

After losing his debut to Brandon Davis on 4/13/19, Randy Costa has had a couple of really impressive first-round knockouts. We’ll see if he can make it three in a row here, but he is an underdog to Adrian Yanez and a sizable one at that. Yanez is riding a six-fight win streak that includes two wins under contract in the UFC and his Dana White Contender Series appearance.

Yanez lost twice in LFA, with losses to Miles Johns and Domingo Pilarte, both of whom are now in UFC. Both were by split decision. Yanez is a pretty hot prospect for the UFC and the 27-year-old seems to have the chance at a highlight knockout here. This one has potential for fireworks and should be over quick, so the under 1.5 is the look at plus money.

Nassourdine Imavov (+132) vs. Ian Heinisch (-152); Total: 2.5 (-210/170)

Remember when Ian Heinisch was getting big billings and main card fights? Now Heinisch is fighting guys making their third UFC appearances on the undercard of a regular Fight Night event. Heinisch has lost three of four as he looks for a bounce back bout against Nassourdine Imavov.

Imavov is 1-1 in UFC and both fights have gone the distance. Heinisch is really stepping down in class here and this line looks oddly low given the caliber of competition, but you have to think this is a fine that Heinisch can win, despite a pretty big size disadvantage. Confidence does seem low in the 32-year-old, so maybe this is a good buy point.

Brendan Allen (-110) vs. Punahele Soriano (-110); Total: 1.5 (-135/105)

This looks to be a good fight between undefeated Punahele Soriano and a 25-year-old in Brendan Allen that already has 20 career fights. Soriano is 8-0 and off to a solid 2-0 start in UFC, 3-0 if we include his Contender Series win over Jamie Pickett, and we probably should. That was Soriano’s only career fight without a finish, as he has five knockouts and two submission wins.

This has Fight of the Night potential written all over it. Allen is 5-1 in UFC if we include his DWCS matchup. He lost to Sean Strickland by knockout, but bounced back very nicely with a first-round win over Karl Roberson. We don’t normally see UFC put fights like this together, as you don’t really want either one of these guys to suffer a setback, but this is an awesome fight.

Frankly, this one seems too close to call, as a knockout is likely, but it will all depend on which fighter lands the shot.

Mickey Gall (+142) vs. Jordan Williams (-162); Total: 2.5 (105/-135)

The main card begins at 170 pounds with Mickey Gall and Jordan Williams. The highly-touted Gall is 2-3 in his last five fights and his wins are over George Sullivan and Salim Touahri. The losses are the better fighters in Mike Perry, Diego Sanchez, and Randy Brown. It sure seems like Jordan Williams is being grouped with those guys based on the odds.

Williams is getting a lot of respect here for a guy that has had multiple UFC chances and hasn’t really looked the part. He was on the Dana White Contender Series three separate times, with a win, a loss, and a No Contest. He lost to Nassourdine Imavov, who is fighting on the undercard here, last time out. This line seems out of whack, as Gall has been a disappointment, but against more proven fights.

Pick: Mickey Gall

Maycee Barber (+115) vs. Miranda Maverick (-135); Total: 2.5 (-200/160)

We have some really good fights on this card and this is one of them. Maycee Barber’s return from the torn ACL she suffered against Roxanne Modafferi was a 15-minute loss to Alexa Grasso back in February. It was a good, close fight that Grasso won 29-28 across the board, as she was the more active and more accurate striker. There was definitely a bit of cage rust from Barber and maybe some tentativeness coming off of the ACL injury.

Now she fights a really strong up-and-comer in Miranda Maverick, who has won both of her UFC fights. She just won on March 27 over Gillian Robertson by unanimous decision, but Robertson is just 9-6 and not really good enough for the promotion. This is a step up for Maverick and this may be a good chance for Barber to get back on track. She can trust the knee now and shook off the rust. An upset could very well be in the cards here.

Pick: Maycee Barber

Darren Elkins (+142) vs. Darrick Minner (-162); Total: 2.5 (-175/145)

Darren Elkins is 26-9 in his career. Darrick Minner is 26-11. This will be the 24th UFC fight for Elkins. It is the fifth for Minner, if we include his Contender Series loss to Herbert Burns. Talk about a guy that has paid his dues. Minner now steps in against Elkins in what could very well be his biggest fight to date. He is favored to win and move up in the division on the back of a win over Charles Rosa.

Elkins lost four in a row before beating Eduardo Garagorri back in November. He was definitely on the verge of maybe not having a spot in the UFC anymore, as the promotion has purged a lot of veterans over the last 18 months. This is a tough fight because Minner probably shouldn’t be this big of a favorite, but Elkins hasn’t shown much lately. The smaller Minner will test Elkins’s takedown defense and that is where the fight looks to be won.

Pick: Darrick Minner

Raulian Paiva (+235) vs. Kyler Phillips (-275); Total: 2.5 (-200/160)

Raulian Paiva had a really strong 2020, as he beat Mark De La Rosa and Zhalgas Zhumagulov to have a 2-0 year. That win over Zhumagulov was on July 11, though, so he has gone more than a year between fights as he steps in against Kyler Phillips. Phillips has won four in a row, including all three UFC fights.

The big price tag makes sense here. Phillips just fought on March 6 and has fought twice since the last fight for Paiva. The reason this fight draws a big billing on the main card is to drum up interest in Phillips. Otherwise, there are much better fights for this spot on the card. That seems to be a good indicator of how this one ends up.

Pick: Kyler Phillips

Macy Chiasson (+162) vs. Aspen Ladd (-182); Total: 2.5 (-195/165)

This doesn’t seem to be as good of a fight as Barber vs. Maverick, but these are still two solid fighters in the women’s bantamweight division. The two have a combined record of 17-2, as Chiasson suffered her only loss against Lina Lansberg a couple of years ago and Ladd had a loss with an asterisk against Germaine de Randamie after a really fast stoppage.

Ladd has not been seen since 12/7/19 against Yana Kunitskaya as she recovered from a torn MCL and ACL. We saw Maycee Barber have some cage rust against a very capable opponent in that spot. Who’s to say we don’t see the same from Ladd here? Chiasson is also the bigger fighter with a size advantage.

Pick: Macy Chiasson

TJ Dillashaw (+155) vs. Cory Sandhagen (-180); Total: 3.5 (130/-160)

Cage rust seems to be kind of a theme for the UFC on ESPN 27 card. This will be TJ Dillashaw’s first fight since January 19, 2019 when he lost to Henry Cejudo for the bantamweight title in just 32 seconds. The banned substance that Dillashaw took resulted in a two-year suspension, so the former champ returns at the age of 35 to take on Cory Sandhagen.

The much taller Sandhagen beat Frankie Edgar back in February on the heels of an impressive win over Marlon Moraes in October. His only two losses are to Jamall Emmers back in LFA and Aljamain Sterling at UFC 250. Dillashaw has had an excellent career, but this is a huge ask against Sandhagen, a great fighter in his own right looking to move up the rankings for another crack at Sterling. He should get it with a win here and he should get that win.

Pick: Cory Sandhagen

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2021 3M Open Betting Odds & Free Picks

Posted on by BTB Staff

One of the weakest fields of the season winds up that way because of a lack of depth. The 3M Open has some name value with Dustin Johnson, Louis Oosthuizen, Tony Finau, and Patrick Reed, but a distinct lack of second and third-tier players leaves us with one of the weaker events by Official World Golf Ranking standards for this weekend at TPC Twin Cities.

This is only the third installment of the 3M Open, an event that features a prize pool of just $6.6 million and immediately follows The Open Championship. That doesn’t bring out a lot of big names, but there are some recent winners, major winners, and some other players with accolades to make this an interesting event.

We’ll post the odds from MyBookie Sportsbook down below the preview and pick content and you can sign up at MyBookie to get a 100% Deposit Match Bonus on your initial deposit.

3M Open Betting Odds & Field

Dustin Johnson is far and away the favorite this week at +750 after a pretty solid showing across the pond in the British Open. Louis Oosthuizen had an awful final round at Royal St. George’s, but he is +1400 this week alongside Tony Finau, who had another high finish in a major last week. Patrick Reed is +1800 to round out the short prices.

Robert MacIntyre, who played well at the Open Championship and was in one of the final groups on Sunday, will come back stateside to take his crack at this event at +2800. Cameron Tringale, 2019 winner Matthew Wolff, Sergio Garcia, Barbasol champ Seamus Power, and European Tour stalwart Lucas Herbert make up the guys priced below 40/1.

Other notables include Rickie Fowler, Emiliano Grillo, Cameron Champ, and Bubba Watson, who will be out of his COVID isolation by the first round on Thursday.

TPC Twin Cities Notes

This is a rather long par 71 track that comes in over 7,400 yards. The greens will be sitting around 12 to 12.5 on the stimpmeter with a bentgrass putting surface. This course is built on sand, but it is not like a links course. There are a lot more trees and the fairways are flatter. We’ll also seen much shorter, thinner rough than what the players dealt with last week.

The winning score for Matthew Wolff in 2019 was 21-under and we saw Michael Thompson come in at 19-under last year, so low numbers can be posted here, even though we’ll be short a par 5 with that par of 71.

This is a Tom Lehman re-design and a lush, green track with a lot of rainy weather of late across the Great Lakes region. The greens come in all shapes and sizes and are well-protected by hazards. Fourteen holes have some kind of water. Several golf analysts compare the course to PGA National, but easier.

As a result, SG: Approach has been far and away the most important metric here.

Third Time’s A Charm?

This is the third year of the 3M Open. There were no repeat top-10 finishers from 2019 to 2020, but we do have some guys that are playing here for the third time. One of them is Dylan Fritelli, who was 46th in 2019 and 18th in 2020. Another is Tony Finau, who was 23rd in 2019 and third in 2020. Finau was among the tournament leaders in SG: T2G last year. If he putts the ball better with similar SG numbers this time around, he’ll have a great shot.

Cameron Tringale went from 42nd in 2019 to third in 2020 with an outstanding performance here last year. That is why he has one of the shorter prices at +3000.

Ryan Moore was 12th here last year after missing the cut in 2019. Sepp Straka was 18th last year after missing the cut in 2019 as well. Adam Long was second here in 2020 after a MC in 2019.

Charles Howell III was 23rd in 2019 and third in 2020, so he has two fine data points at this course.

Yay or Neigh?

We only have two years of data for our Horse for Course section. Along with the names listed above, here are a few others to think about.

Matthew Wolff won in 2019 and was 12th here last year. Wolff has not been in good form lately and has been taking some time to focus on his mental well-being, so we’ll see how he plays here this week.

Emiliano Grillo did not play in 2019, but was third last year. Max Homa was also third last year after a MDF in 2019. Nine players actually tied for third last year, three shots behind the winner, Michael Thompson. Adam Long had a solo second at 17-under.

Alex Noren, Charl Schwartzel, Robby Shelton, Richy Werenski, and Finau were the others that finished T-3rd.

A lot of the top-10 finishers from two years ago are not here. Wolff is as the inaugural champ. Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa tied for second and are not on hand. Carlos Ortiz is also not in the field. Brian Harman withdrew on Monday.

Top-10 finishes from 2019 that are here include recent winner Lucas Glover, Adam Hadwin, who finished fourth in 2019 and is 100/1, and Troy Merritt.

Recent Form

Cameron Davis won the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week and a lot of the players that did well in that event had success on this course in 2019, so there could be a bit of a correlation there. Guys like Alex Noren and Troy Merritt are the ones that stand out the most.

Lucas Glover, who won the John Deere Classic, was seventh here two years ago, so he looks to be a solid player going into the weekend. Brandon Hagy has a couple top-20 finishes lately and Luke List has had back-to-back top-five outcomes. Hank Lebioda has three straight top-eight finishes.

Brian Stuard has a couple top-15s in a row, while Patrick Rodgers has a couple top-25 results. Bubba Watson was sixth at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Lucas Herbert has a recent European Tour win.

Seamus Power might be the recent form king this week with six straight top-20 finishes, including last week’s Barbasol Championship win. He has three straight top-10 finishes. It would either be Power or Louis Oosthuizen, who has two runners-up and a third from The Open on his recent resume.

3M Open Picks

This is a wide-open tournament. You certainly wonder about players coming back from a week or two in Europe. You wonder about the depressed prices on recent form guys that may just be in a good cycle. You wonder about a lot in a field like this.

You can take some big swings here, like a Matthew NeSmith at 175/1 as a top-10 player in SG: Approach this season. Only Keegan Bradley ranks higher in SG: APP among the players in the field this week.

Emiliano Grillo is 12th in SG: Approach and looks like a safer play, albeit at a lower number at +4000.

Jhonattan Vegas has really done well striking the ball. The putter hasn’t quite been there, but he has good length and three top-11 finishes in his last five starts. He is another look at +6600.

Coverage of the 3M Open will be on Golf Channel and CBS this weekend.

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BETTING ODDS FOR THE 2021 3M OPEN

DUSTIN JOHNSON+750
LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN+1400
TONY FINAU+1400
PATRICK REED+1800
ROBERT MACINTYRE+2800
CAMERON TRINGALE+3000
BRIAN HARMAN+3000
MATTHEW WOLFF+3300
SERGIO GARCIA+3300
SEAMUS POWER+3500
LUCAS HERBERT+3500
BUBBA WATSON+4000
EMILIANO GRILLO+4000
MAVERICK MCNEALY+4000
CAMERON DAVIS+4000
RICKIE FOWLER+4000
PATTON KIZZIRE+5000
KEEGAN BRADLEY+5000
HANK LEBIODA+5000
CHARL SCHWARTZEL+5000
STEWART CINK+5000
LUKE LIST+5500
RYAN MOORE+5500
DYLAN FRITTELLI+5500
GARY WOODLAND+6000
DOUG GHIM+6000
LANTO GRIFFIN+6000
BRANDT SNEDEKER+6600
PATRICK RODGERS+6600
JHONATTAN VEGAS+6600
J.T. POSTON+6600
RICHY WERENSKI+6600
CHRIS KIRK+7000
CHARLES HOWELL+7500
BRENDON TODD+8000
TROY MERRITT+8000
MITO PEREIRA+8000
MICHAEL THOMPSON+8000
JOEL DAHMEN+8000
KYLE STANLEY+8000
STEVE STRICKER+8000
MATT KUCHAR+8000
ADAM SCHENK+10000
ADAM HADWIN+10000
ERIK VAN ROOYEN+10000
CHEZ REAVIE+10000
BRANDON HAGY+10000
BEAU HOSSLER+11000
BO HOAG+11000
TOM LEWIS+11000
BRIAN STUARD+11000
ADAM LONG+12500
SAM RYDER+12500
SCOTT STALLINGS+12500
MARK HUBBARD+12500
RUSSELL KNOX+12500
CAMERON CHAMP+12500
PAT PEREZ+12500
SEPP STRAKA+14000
RYAN ARMOUR+14000
RAFA CABRERA BELLO+15000
JAMES HAHN+15000
KEITH MITCHELL+16000
TOM HOGE+16000
BYEONG HUN AN+16000
PETER UIHLEIN+16000
JASON DUFNER+16000
SCOTT PIERCY+17500
BRANDON STONE+17500
KEVIN TWAY+17500
BRICE GARNETT+17500
JOSEPH BRAMLETT+17500
MATTHEW NESMITH+17500
WYNDHAM CLARK+17500
CHESSON HADLEY+20000
VINCENT WHALEY+20000
CAMERON PERCY+20000
SCOTT BROWN+20000
ROBERT STREB+20000
DENNY MCCARTHY+20000
ROGER SLOAN+20000
WILL GORDON+20000
SATOSHI KODAIRA+20000
AUSTIN ECKROAT+22500
NATE LASHLEY+22500
VAUGHN TAYLOR+22500
ANDREW PUTNAM+22500
CAMILO VILLEGAS+22500
JOHN HUH+22500
BRONSON BURGOON+25000
JIMMY WALKER+25000
BEN MARTIN+27500
TYLER DUNCAN+27500
HARRY HIGGS+27500
SEAN OHAIR+27500
ROBBY SHELTON+27500
MARK ANDERSON+27500
M J DAFFUE+30000
BO VAN PELT+30000
CHASE SEIFFERT+30000
NICK WATNEY+35000
PETER MALNATI+35000
JOSH TEATER+35000
KIRADECH APHIBARNRAT+35000
AARON BADDELEY+35000
J.J. SPAUN+35000
WES ROACH+35000
ROB OPPENHEIM+35000
JOHN PAK+35000
MICHAEL GLIGIC+35000
DAVID HEARN+35000
SUNG-HOON KANG+35000
RHEIN GIBSON+35000
FABIAN GOMEZ+35000
ANDREW LANDRY+35000
LUKE DONALD+35000
BILL HAAS+40000
MICHAEL GELLERMAN+40000
AUSTIN COOK+40000
SCOTT HARRINGTON+40000
QUADE CUMMINS+40000
JOHNSON WAGNER+50000
RAFAEL CAMPOS+50000
SHAWN STEFANI+50000
KRIS VENTURA+50000
TED POTTER+50000
ANGUS FLANAGAN+50000
TYLER MCCUMBER+50000
BRIAN GAY+50000
CHRIS BAKER+50000
JOHN SENDEN+60000
SANGMOON BAE+60000
RYAN BREHM+60000
BEN TAYLOR+60000
ZACK SUCHER+60000
JONATHAN BYRD+60000
D.J. TRAHAN+60000
GRAYSON MURRAY+75000
RYAN BLAUM+75000
NELSON LEDESMA+75000
D.A. POINTS+75000
MICHAEL KIM+75000
SEBASTIAN CAPPELEN+75000
DOMINIC BOZZELLI+75000
MATT EVERY+100000
MARTIN TRAINER+100000
BRENT SNYDER+100000
HUNTER MAHAN+100000
KEVIN STADLER+100000

UFC on ESPN 26: Makhachev vs. Moises Betting Odds, Picks, & Predictions

Posted on by BTB Staff

UFC 264 probably didn’t work out the way that everybody wanted, but the outcome of the Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier fight sure seemed like it was going to reach that conclusion at some point anyway.

Less-heralded fighters will take center stage for this week’s event at the UFC Apex with a main event between Islam Makhachev and Thiago Moises. That is the main event of this card known as UFC on ESPN 26 on Saturday July 17.

Eleven fights are scheduled in total for this card, which will go back behind closed doors at the UFC’s training facility. We’ll look at the odds from BetOnline Sportsbook to see if we can find some good wagers.

Alan Baudot (+285) vs. Rodrigo Nascimento (-350); Total: 1.5 (115/-145)

The lone heavyweight fight of the evening is the lead-off match, as Alan Baudot looks for his first UFC win. The 33-year-old Frenchman lost to Tom Aspinall back in October by first-round knockout to fall to 8-2. His other loss was to Dalcha Lungiambula, so his two losses are to the two best fighters he has faced.

Rodrigo Nascimento also lost that night, but to Chris Daukaus in just 45 seconds. It was the first career loss for Nascimento, who is more of a grappler and a submission artist than a striker. Daukaus was going to keep that fight upright. Baudot probably won’t have as much success.

Pick: Rodrigo Nascimento

Malcolm Gordon (+250) vs. Francisco Figueiredo (-300); Total: 2.5 (120/-150)

Another big underdog in an early fight as Malcolm Gordon looks for his first UFC win. Gordon is 0-2 with losses to Su Mudaerji and Amir Albazi. He was 12-3 prior to that. Francisco Figueiredo, a former Jungle Fight competitor, won his debut fight over Jerome Rivera back in January. He should get another win here.

Pick: Francisco Figueiredo

Anderson Dos Santos (+145) vs. Miles Johns (-170); Total: 2.5 (-205/165)

Miles Johns rebounded nicely from his first career loss with a knockout win over Kevin Natividad on Halloween. Now the 27-year-old Johns faces Anderson Dos Santos, who is 1-2 in his UFC career. Dos Santos is 21-8 and has a strong ground game, which seems concerning for Johns, who has won six of his 11 fights by decision. This will be a good test of his takedown defense.

Johns is the taller fighter, which should help him hold serve here as a favorite, but this fight looks a lot more competitive and is a tougher handicap than the first two.

Pick: Miles Johns

Sergey Morozov (+118) vs. Khalid Taha (-138); Total: 2.5 (-220/180)

Sergey Morozov lost his UFC debut to Umar Nurmagomedov back in January, but the former M-1 bantamweight champion will get another shot here. It was Morozov’s first fight since October 2019, so some cage rust was to be expected and that was certainly the case, as he was very efficient with his strikes and takedown defense.

Khalid Taha, who is 1-2 with a No Contest in four UFC fights, does have nine knockouts to his name, but we haven’t seen as much of that striking power at this level. Morozov should look better in this spot than he did in his last fight and is an intriguing upset candidate.

Pick: Sergey Morozov

Montserrat Conejo (+400) vs. Amanda Lemos (-600); Total: 2.5 (-145/115)

Mexican strawweight Montserrat Conejo will look to improve to 2-0 in the UFC with this fight against Amanda Lemos. Conejo was a winner over Cheyanne Buys with an impressive debut on March 20, but this is a big step up in class against a bigger fighter in Lemos. It was a big win for Conejo, who entered on short notice and won the fight easily.

Lemos is 3-1 in UFC, with a loss to Leslie Smith in her debut back in 2017. Otherwise, she’s won three times since December 2019 and hasn’t really broken a sweat in any of those fights. She’s -600 for a reason here, but that does seem like a bit of a big price to bet. Lemos has won eight of nine by stoppage, so the under 2.5 isn’t a bad look here if she’s that heavy of a favorite to win.

Pick: Under 2.5

Preston Parsons (+275) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (-335); Total: 1.5 (-135/105)

The UFC debut for Preston Parsons comes against Daniel Rodriguez at 170 pounds. The welterweight is 9-2 in his career and has won four straight fights by submission. All nine of his wins have been via submission. It is a huge opportunity for the 26-year-old to go up against Rodriguez, who has fought five times in the last 17 months with a 4-1 record.

Rodriguez has fought a lot of staples in the welterweight division and his additional experience at the upper levels seems to be a big deciding factor in where this is lined. Rodriguez has never tapped out in 16 career fights and it seems like it will be a challenge for Parsons to win a decision against such a proven, savvy fighter.

Pick: Daniel Rodriguez

Billy Quarantillo (+140) vs. Gabriel Benitez (-160); Total: 2.5 (-170/140)

The main card begins with Gabriel Benitez, who is an injury replacement for Herbert Burns, up against Billy Quarantillo. Quarantillo, a favorite on the Dana White Contender Series, is coming off of a loss to Gavin Tucker, which is just the third of his career. The 32-year-old former KOTC champ had won eight straight prior to that fight.

Benitez scored a nice bounce back win over Justin Jaynes last time out after back-to-back losses. The 33-year-old has a very versatile skill set with the ability to win in a lot of different ways. So does Quarantillo, so this has Fight of the Night potential on what is an otherwise weak card.

It seems hard to trust Benitez here, as the first four minutes with Jaynes were pretty even before the knockout shot to the abdomen.

Pick: Billy Quarantillo

Dustin Stoltzfus (+185) vs. Rodolfo Vieira (-220); Total: 1.5 (-130/100)

This is a big opportunity for Dustin Stoltzfus, a Dana White Contender Series find that lost a little over two months after getting his contract. It was a unanimous decision loss at UFC 255 for Stoltzfus, who was 13-1 coming into that match against Kyle Daukaus. It is Daukaus’s only UFC win in three tries. The 6-foot-3 Daukaus did have a size edge over Stoltzfus and used that effectively in the fight.

Rodolfo Vieira will not, but he is still a big favorite here at 185 pounds. Vieira lost to Alexander Hernandez last time out by second-round submission after winning his first two UFC fights. Stoltzfus has never lost via stoppage. Vieira has seven stoppage wins, so maybe this is an all-or-nothing fight, but the juice on the over 1.5 is not terribly prohibitive and a better way to bet on this fight rather than trust two fighters still finding their way in the promotion.

Pick: Over 1.5

Jeremy Stephens (+178) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (-208); Total: 2.5 (-130/100)

If it feels like we haven’t seen Jeremy Stephens in a while, that’s because we haven’t. Stephens fought at UFC 249 in May and suffered his fourth loss in five fights. It would probably be five in a row, but an accidental eye poke from Yair Rodriguez resulted in a No Contest. Stephens is a shell of the fighter that he used to be, now 35 years of age. He’s fought much better competition than Mateusz Gamrot has, but that’s about all we can say in favor of Stephens here.

Gamrot, the former KSW champ, is 1-1 in UFC. He just won in April over Scott Holtzman after losing his debut fight to Guram Kutateladze. As bad as Stephens has been lately, Gamrot is not at all experienced against fighters like this. If Stephens has anything left in the tank, we should see it here. If nothing else, Gamrot is not a big finisher, so the over 2.5 is very much in play.

Pick: Over 2.5

Marion Reneau (+125) vs. Miesha Tate (-145); Total: 2.5 (-300/240)

Well then. Miesha Tate has not fought since November 12, 2016 when she lost to Raquel Pennington by unanimous decision and then retired from MMA. She’ll make her return here to take on Marion Reneau. The fact that Tate hasn’t fought in 4.5 years and is still a favorite seems to say a lot about Reneau, who is 9-7-1 in her MMA career.

Reneau will be retiring win or lose here at the age of 44. Tate has stayed around the sport in an executive role for ONE Championship, but getting back in the cage is an altogether different feeling. She’ll turn 35 in August, so she isn’t old by fight standards, but rust could be a huge factor.

That being said, Reneau has lost four in a row and she’s on her way out the door.

Pick: Miesha Tate

Thiago Moises (+450) vs. Islam Makhachev (-700); Total: 4.5 (-150/120)

Except for women’s title fights, it is hard to remember a line this high for a UFC main event. Islam Makhachev can move to 20-1 with a win here over Thiago Moises. The 26-year-old Moises has been impressive in UFC to this point and has fought some more accomplished competition than Makhachev, so maybe he will have a puncher’s chance in this fight.

It is hard to take +450 to fade Makhachev, who only has the one loss, but taking a -700 seems challenging here as well. This will be the first fight set for championship rounds in either guy’s UFC career. Moises went into the fifth round three times during his stints in RFA and LFA.

This one will likely go the full 25.

Pick: Over 4.5

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Real Money Contests at MyBookie Sportsbook Provide a Great Opportunity to Win

Posted on by BTB Staff

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Philadelphia Flyers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Pick 3/12/20

Posted on by BTB Staff

Amalie Arena is playing host to an intriguing tilt as the Philadelphia Flyers come into town to face the Tampa Bay Lightning. It’s the third and last time that the two clubs will meet in the regular season. This Eastern Conference matchup gets going at 7 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 12 and it will air live on NBC Sports Philadelphia.

Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

Tampa Bay (-150) is currently the favorite over Philadelphia (+130). If you want to put some action on the matchup’s Over/Under (O/U) total, you’ll be looking at -115 money on over 6 goals and +-105 on the under under..

Losing 0.8 units for moneyline bettors, Tampa Bay is 43-27 straight up (SU) overall this year. That win percentage, the NHL’s second-best so far this season, is a big slide from what the team recorded during last year’s regular season (62-20). Among the team’s 70 games this season, 36 have gone over the total, while 30 have gone under and just four have pushed. The team is 22-12 SU at home this season.

The Lightning have converted on 23.1 percent of their power play opportunities this season, a figure that places them in the top-10 among NHL teams. On the other hand, their penalty kill is ranked 13th overall, and they’ve successfully killed off 81.5 percent of all penalties.

As a team, the Lightning have been called for penalties 4.2 times per game overall this season, and 5.4 per game over their past ten match ups. The team’s had to stave off opponent power plays for a whopping 15.2 minutes per game over their last 10 outings, overall.

Averaging 28.3 saves per game with a .917 save percentage, Andrei Vasilevskiy (35-17-3) has been the primary goalkeeper for the Bolts this year. If the Bolts choose to give him a rest, however, the team could turn to Curtis McElhinney (8-10-10 record, .906 save percentage, 2.89 goals against average).

Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos will each lead the offensive attack for the Lightning. Kucherov (85 points) has tallied 33 goals and 52 assists and has recorded two or more points in 26 different games this year. Stamkos has 29 goals and 37 assists to his credit and has notched at least one point in 41 contests.

Philadelphia has earned 12.6 units for moneyline bettors this season and is currently 41-28 straight up (SU). A total of 36 of its contests have gone over the total, while 31 have gone under the total and just two have pushed. As the road team, the Flyers are 16-18 SU.

The Flyers have converted on 20.7 percent of their power play chances this season, a figure that’s right around league average. On the other hand, its penalty kill unit is ranked 13th overall and it’s successfully killed off 81.9 percent of all opponent power plays.

Philadelphia’s players have been whistled for penalties 3.5 times per game this season, and 5.4 per game over their last five road outings. The team’s been forced to stave off opponent power plays just 8.0 minutes per game over their last 10 outings.

Carter Hart (2.42 goals against average and .914 save percentage) has been the primary option in goal for Philadelphia. Hart is averaging 23.4 saves per game and owns a 24-19-3 record.

For the visiting Flyers, the offense will be facilitated through Travis Konecny (24 goals, 37 assists) and Sean Couturier (22 goals, 37 assists).

Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning Free Picks

Pick: SU Winner – Lightning, O/U – Over

Notes

Betting Trends

Over Philadelphia’s last ten games, nine of them have been decided by two or more goals (the team is 8-1 in those games).

Power-play opportunities could play a key role tonight. The Flyers are 16-17 when they serve fewer penalty minutes than their opponent and 27-22 in games where they’re in the penalty box for fewer than 10 total minutes. The Lightning are 15-7 when they serve fewer penalty minutes than the opposition and 25-14 when they’re in the box for less than 10 minutes.

Tampa Bay is 2-1 in games decided by a shootout this season while Philadelphia is 5-5 in shootouts.

The total has gone under in three of the past five outings for each of these teams.

Philadelphia has averaged 6.4 giveaways over its last five home games, an improvement from its season average of 9.8 giveaways per game (ranked 15th overall).

One of the top teams when it comes to taking care of the puck, Tampa Bay is ranked 3rd this season with just 7.3 giveaways per game. That figure has trended lower recently, however, as the team’s averaged 5.5 giveaways over its last 10 games and 4.8 giveaways over its last five.

The Bolts this season have registered the seventh-most hits in the NHL (24.0 per game), but that average has risen to 26.6 over their last five games as the home team.

Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens Betting Pick 3/12/20

Posted on by BTB Staff

In their third head-to-head matchup of the regular season, the Buffalo Sabres and the Montreal Canadiens meet at Bell Centre. The match will get going at 7 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 12, and fans at home are able to see this Atlantic Division matchup live on The Sports Network.

Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens Odds

Playing the role of favorite will be Montreal (-145), while Buffalo is an underdog offering moneyline odds of +125, and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under (O/U) at 6 goals. The line for betting the total stands at -105 money on the over and -115 for the under.

Montreal is 31-40 straight up (SU) and has not been kind to moneyline bettors (to the tune of -17.4 units) thus far. That early-season winning percentage is a slide from what the team recorded during last year’s regular season (44-38). 35 of its 71 games have gone under the total, while 33 have gone over and just three have pushed. The team’s 14-23 SU at home this year.

The Canadiens have converted on just 17.7 percent of their power play chances this year, a figure that’s ranked 23rd overall in the NHL. On the other hand, their penalty kill is ranked 20th overall, and they’ve successfully killed off 78.7 percent of all penalties.

The Canadiens, as a collective unit, have been penalized 3.4 times per game overall this season, and 2.8 per game over their last five home outings. The team’s had to stave off opponent power plays for just 5.6 minutes per contest over their last five home games.

With a .909 save percentage and 27.5 saves per game, Carey Price (27 wins, 31 losses, and six OT losses) has been the top goalkeeper for Montreal this year. If head coach Claude Julien decides to rest him, however, the team may turn to Keith Kinkaid (1-5-5 record, .875 save percentage, 4.24 goals against average).

The Habs will continue to look for leadership from Tomas Tatar and Phillip Danault. Tatar (61 points) has tallied 22 goals and 39 assists and has recorded two or more points in 14 different games this year. Danault has 13 goals and 34 assists to his credit and has notched at least one point in 37 contests.

Buffalo has lost 6.5 units for moneyline bettors thus far and is currently 30-39 straight up (SU). Through 69 regular season matches, 34 of its games have gone under the total, while 31 have gone over and just four have pushed. The Sabres are 10-24 SU as the away team this season.

The Sabres have converted on 18.9 percent of their power play chances this year, a figure that’s right around league average. On the other hand, its penalty kill unit is ranked 31st overall and it’s successfully killed off 74.7 percent of all penalties.

Buffalo’s skaters have been penalized only 3.0 times per game this season, and 2.2 per game over their last five on the road. The team has had to kill penalties just 4.2 minutes per game over their last 10 outings.

Linus Ullmark (28.7 saves per game) has been the primary option in goal for Buffalo. Ullmark owns a 17-17-3 record, and has registered a .915 save percentage and 2.69 goals against average this year.

Leading the offensive firepower for the visiting Sabres will be Jack Eichel, who has 36 goals and 42 assists on the year.

Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens Free Picks

Free NHL Tip: SU Winner – Canadiens, O/U – Under

Notes

Betting Trends

Buffalo is 2-2 in games decided by a shootout this season while Montreal is 4-1 in shootouts.

For both of these clubs, the total has gone over in three of their past five games.

The Canadiens have averaged the league’s third-most shots on goal (34.2) while the Sabres have attempted the 31st-most (only 34.2).

Montreal has averaged 3.0 goals per game overall this year, but has been averaging 1.0 goal per matchup over its three-game losing skid.

Seven of Buffalo’s last ten games have been decided by two goals or more. The team is 1-6 in those games.

The Habs this season have tallied the fifth-most hits per game in the NHL (26.5).