Category: Strategy

There’s talk just about everywhere regarding Closing Line Value (CLV). Simply put, the closing line is the spread at the time off, or kick off. For professional bettors it’s often times THE most important thing and for casual bettors it should be.

The easiest example to give is using a money line. For example, let’s say your typical bet on a given game is $100. If you were to bet on Baylor at -130 and the line CLOSED at -135 that’s a mere .05.

If you were to bet on Baylor at +135 (no that that will happen soon) and Baylor closed +130 you once again gain a nickel. Of course that doesn’t sound like a lot, but if you calculate that edge you’re either making or saving an extra bucks every time you hit “enter.” Take it one step further and betting just one game per day (who does that?) and you’re ahead either way by $150.

That’s the easy part. Actually beating the closing line takes skill, patience, and working hard in advance.For instance, you can’t come home from your day job and expect to get the best of it. Countless sharp bettors and syndicates have at least a 24 hour head start.You must know the game(s) you like and you also must be able to predict what the line will do. I completely understand that the time needed to do that just isn’t there for many people.

The tout industry, or which I am one, has a shaky reputation and it’s been rightfully earned, be honest. However,there are plenty of good handicappers that don’t have day jobs and do the work thoroughly and well. Winning is hard, period, and remember at -110 the break even point is winning 52.4% of your wagers which sounds easy enough. And yet, a small percentage of people actually do that.

I’m not here to sell you plays.I’m here to educate and if I can save one person from making less mistakes than I did, that’s gratifying to me. The point is that you can keep your bankroll under two circumstances, assuming you’re paying for information. Surprisingly, the first one is NOT finding a winning handicapper. It’s starting with reasonable expectations, because everyone has both good and bad streaks. The SECOND one if finding a winning handicapper that also provides reasonable detail as why he bet a certain game, because of nothing else you will learn.

So, give thought to where you are and where you want to be. It’ll pay not only financial dividends but will also dramatically reduce some stress, which we all could use in this day and age,

Over/Under bets (also known as totals) are a type of bet that is based on the final points total of a game in any given sport. For example, these types of bets are placed in sports including football, baseball, and basketball. A bettor places a bet based on whether they think that the score of the game is going to be more or less than the amount set by the oddsmakers. Oddsmakers determine the points totals based on how many points they believe are going to be scored in the game.

Betting On Totals

Before a bettor places any bet, there are a lot of different things that need to be considered. When it comes to betting on totals, there are a number of different variables that need to be considered before the bet is laid down. For example:

• The most current offensive and defensive trends of each team of that season
• The matchup history that may (or may not) exist between the two teams
• The environment, city, or stadium in which the teams will be playing in
• Any injuries that may be plaguing a team and the player

For the sake of explanation and example, we will use the example of the Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles.

An oddsmaker may set the total at 48.5 points for the game. The bettor will have to decide whether they believe that the score will add up to more than 48 or less than 49. For example, if the score ends up 27-20, the game will have fallen under the total set by the oddsmaker.

The Betting Line

Every game that has an over/under set for it, has a betting line. This is the information that the oddsmaker makes available to the bettors to help them make their decision on their bets. Most betting lines are set as the over/under -110, but the oddsmaker can adjust this line if they deem it necessary to do so. Here is an example of betting lines:

• 48.5 over -110- This means that the bettor will have to lay down $110 in order to win $100 if they bet that the points total will be more than 48
• 48.5 under +105- This means that the bettor will have to bet $105 to win $100 if they bet that the points total will be less than 49

One of the things that can make an over/under bet very interesting is overtime. It doesn’t matter if a game goes into overtime or not, the over/under remains the same. The over/under is set for the outcome regardless of whether there is an overtime period or not. It is one of those things that is an under bettor’s worst nightmare and an over bettor’s dream.

What Is A Push?

There are times when the over/under is an even number and doesn’t have a .5 on it, like 48. This is a situation that many bettors who like to bet on the over/under prefer to bet on. It is a popular line to bet on. A push happens when the point total is set to one of those even numbers and the game that the line is set for hits that exact amount.

Like if the score of the Dallas vs Philadelphia game ends at 28-20. This is called a push. When this happens, bettors are returned their money, and no one makes anything off of that particular game, not even the oddsmaker. Some bettors like to bet on these types of games because it comes with an added safety net for their bets.

Bookmakers and oddsmakers are in the gambling business as a business and they need to make money. The -110 figure that they establish for many bets is the amount that a bettor needs to bet in order for them to win $100. This extra $10 is called the juice that the bookmaker needs in order to remain in business.

As Far As The Bettor Is Concerned

Just like with anything, consumers need to find the best prices they possibly can before they spend their money. The same thing goes for laying down a bet. Different oddsmakers and bookmakers will set reduced juice for bettors in order to attract new bettors or increase the action on a particular game. These reduced lines are commonly known as “reduced juice” or “nickel lines.”

Bettors need to shop around for the best they can find so that they need to put up the least amount of money possible to place their bets. The bettor needs to put themselves in a position to make the most they can off the least amount of money possible.

The ultimate objective for any bettor is to minimize their losses and maximize their wins, obviously right? There are going to be times when a bettor will spend a little more on a bet because they are confident in the team. This bet could be upwards of -120 or even -130. If a bettor is going to do this, they need to make sure that they are extremely confident in the bet that they are making.

As Far As The Sportsbook Is Concerned

No business is going to last long if they are not making money. This is why bettors have to spend $110 to win $100. The sportsbook needs to be able to make money for being available to bettors to broker the bets. This seems like a small commission, but sportsbooks make a majority of their money on losses.

Between a cashed out winning bet and a losing bet, the bookmakers will come out up $10. This is not a lot of money, which is why a bookmaker banks on the fact that there are going to be a large number of bettors who are going to lose. Also, what most bettors don’t take into account is the number of bets that a bookmaker takes throughout the scope of a single game. The more bets they take, the more money they make.

For an even more detailed discussion on betting vig and how to beat it, check out this article.

Most of the time when people are betting on NFL games, it has to do with who they believe will win and points totals for the games. With the popularity of internet betting and fantasy football on the rise, prop betting is becoming more and more popular. These types of bets have nothing to do with the outcome of the game, but how a particular player or team will perform in certain aspects of the game.

There are tons of different types of prop bets that a bettor can get in on over the course of an NFL game.

Here are some examples of prop bets involving Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys that a bettor can bet on:

• How many touchdowns they believe Dak will throw for against the Texans
• How many passing yards Dak Prescott will throw for in a particular quarter
• How many rushing yards Ezekiel Elliott will have in the second half
• How many sacks will the defense get
• How many interceptions will Dak Prescott throw for in the game

Prop bets can even include things like:

• How long the national anthem will run
• Who will win the coin toss (this will be talked about later)

The important part about taking advantage of prop bets is that the bettor makes sure to do their research and bet on what they know. Our BangTheBook NFL pages can supply a bettor with everything they could want to know such as betting trends, odds scores, and picks. It also depends on a bettor’s knowledge about a particular team.

A bettor should incorporate their knowledge of a given team and their tendencies that they follow throughout the season. Informed bettors will pay attention to injury reports for players and matchups for the week. This ongoing research will add comfort to the prop bet that they choose for their Sunday betting choices.

Bettors also need to keep in mind the point spread information as well. When a team is down in a game they are going to throw the ball a hell of a lot more than when they are up. Teams who gain a substantial lead by the fourth quarter are going to run the ball to limit turnovers and control the clock. This type of information will need to be considered in those games that may be a blowout.

As was mentioned earlier, the coin toss is a great way for a newbie bettor to be introduced to prop bets, but it is not a bet that they are going to run with throughout the season. It is a good introductory bet because there is no research involved and there is a 50% chance that they will win. On the flipside of that coin (pardon the pun), there is also a 50% chance that they will lose and there are going to be prop bets that will give them better chances of winning and lower chances of losing.

Prop bets can be a lot of fun, but they do require a certain amount of research and knowledge about the player, team, and game that they are betting on. A prospective prop bettor should take their time and choose a bet when they are comfortable with their decision.

Teaser bets are a type of bet that is most popularly used for sporting events in football and basketball. These sports leagues include the National Football League, National Basketball Association, and the NCAA divisions of both sports. These bets can add a lot of fun during the NCAA basketball tournament or during games whose lines are really close and hard to call.

These bets are made on the point spreads and the over/under (point totals) in the games. Points are added to the point spreads and totals (over/under) so that they are adjusted, or teased, in order to increase the bettor’s chances. These bets are a type of bet that gamblers utilize in order to increase their chances of winning.

These are not the type of bets that bettors are going to make huge profits on, but it will increase the chances of winning. Gamblers will also use these types of bets when they are less worried about the amount of money that they win and are more worried about winning in general. If a bettor is confident in their choice for a game, teaser bets are not going to be the best idea. They are best used in games that have close lines and are difficult to call.

They are much like a parlay bet. Parlay bets are bets that combine two or more bets into one singular bet. Teaser bets are offered by most sportsbook and they are advertised by them as “exotic” bets. Let’s discuss an example of a teaser bet in order to understand how they work.

For purposes of discussion, we will use a National Basketball Association game as an example. Before a bettor can take advantage of a teaser bet, they have to find a line that you like. For example, if they find a line that has the Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 over the Boston Celtics and the over/under is 198. They like Philadelphia to cover the spread, which means they will win the game or lose by 8 points or more. They also choose the under and bet that the points total will be less than 198 points.

The teaser bet from the sportsbook on this game offers you 5 points in which to adjust the spread and the over/under. These additional points are added to both the spread and the over/under, thus making the points spread 12.5 and the over/under 203. This gives the bettor a little more wiggle room in the outcome of the game. This increases a bettor’s chances because now Philadelphia has to win the game out right or lose by 13 points or more. And when it comes to the under that was chosen by the bettor, the points will have to be less than 203.

When it comes to the NFL, the best teasers cover the key numbers. Those key numbers are 3, 4, 6, and 7. The optimal 6-point teaser would be to take a 2.5-point underdog and make them an 8.5-point underdog or to take a 7.5 or 8.5-point favorite and take them down to 1.5 or 2.5.  Crossing key numbers in totals like 44, 45, 51, 52, 54, or 55 are also important for those that are teasing totals. You want to make sure that you are getting important numbers and not just teasing for teasing sake because a two-team teaser has the standard -110 vigorish, even though you need both games to come through.

Betting is never an exact science, and there is always going to be a certain amount of risk involved. These teaser bets can give the bettor increased chances in those close games that can go either way, or they are having difficulty choosing. If a person is confident in the outcome of a particular game, this is not a type of bet that needs to be taken advantage of.

Even people who only dabble in sports betting understand that the house/bookmaker is normally favored in the bet. What most people who bet don’t realize is that there is a way of turning these tables, so they will favor the bettor more often. It is called becoming an advantage player through advantage betting. An advantage player is a bettor who only bets when the odds are in their favor. In order to become this kind of player, you have to understand positive, negative, and neutral expected value (EV).

Expected Value

The simplest way to explain expected value is to look at it when betting on a coin flip. A neutral expected value (EV) is when the bettor is betting a dollar on their call and the bookmaker/house is betting the same on their call. Over the course of 100 flips, it is likely a 50/50 chance that either side breaks even. Now to understand negative and positive expected value, let’s up the bet a little bit.

A negative expected value (-EV) is when the odds are in favor of the house. Let’s say, over the course of 100 flips, the bettor wins $1 on their successful calls and the house wins a $1.10 on its successful calls. If the chances are 50/50 in winning the calls, the bettor can consider themselves losing from the beginning and it will (on average) cost them $55 over the course of 100 flips (versus the $50 it will cost the house).

A positive expected value (+EV) are when the odds are in favor of the bettor. We will continue with our coin flip example. When the bettor wins a $1.10 on their successful calls and the house wins $1 on their successful calls, the bettor has the improved chances of walking away with $55 than if the $50 the house would win. These positive expected values are the situations that bettors want to find in order to turn the tables on the house and come out with a profit more often than not.

Methods Used To Find Positive EV

We have a couple of articles posted in order to help you understand and implement two different strategies to become an advantage player. These strategies are the teaser betting strategy and the prop betting strategy. These articles will allow you to understand the basics and begin to use them in a way that will allow you to turn a profit.

Teaser Betting Strategy– When you begin to do the research prior to your bets, you’ll realize that just before game time, the lines become more efficient. Teasers are the values based on those betting lines so that you (as the bettor) doesn’t have to go into deep research in order to figure out where the positive expected values are. This is probably one of the easiest ways to find +EV bets and our article outlines this method in detail.

Prop Bet Strategy– These are bets based on particular situations within the game and is one of the easiest betting opportunities that a bettor can take advantage of. Our article will detail the breakdown of the situation of betting on who will score first. Once you have used this strategy to find +EV on and win the prop bets on this situation, you will be able to use this method for other prop bets.

Expanding Your Knowledge

There are different ways in which to implement advantage betting. The strategies listed above are the simplest to understand and put into action in order to turn a profit. The article we have available are articles in order to help bettors start on their advantage betting strategies. They are by no means the end all, be all of the possibilities of advantage betting. Here are a couple of great books that can really elaborate on the basics of advantage betting.

Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong

Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting by King Yao

Our article about finding the bets with max value is a great supplement to whichever method that you have chosen to use for advantage betting. It is a way to continue to expand your knowledge of advantage betting with either strategy that we highlighted above.

We also have listed an article about winning without a tout. This is a great article to read in pairing with the article of finding the max value that will help you in earning bonus picks. When you expand your knowledge, you increase your chances of earning a profit with each educated bet that you place.

All of these articles are aimed at increasing your basic understanding of advantage betting. These will allow you to find the bets with the best positive expected value and how to make money utilizing these bets.

This will take some time to fully understand and to successfully implement. It will take research and practice in order to become proficient, but once you have reached this level and you want to be the type of bettor who can make an online career doing this, there are other reading materials that you may want to explore. One such book is Conquering Risk: Attacking Vegas and Wall Street by Elihu D. Feustel.

This is a book that is a lot more in-depth with the process and applying it to further situations and circumstances. It has a major focus on the math, statistics, and handicaps that go along with betting and risks involved with bets and monetary gambles. This is a book that only need be explored once a bettor has reached an advanced level.

Understanding how to place a successful bet is not an exact science and it is going to require some work and research. It will require practice and will come with some losses. These are going to be learning processes that can all be utilized in becoming more proficient in advantage betting. It is important to make sure to utilize all of your possible resources, the ones that we provide and others out there as well. The more knowledge and research that you can obtain, the more that you will be armed to make educated bets for profit.

Esports is a field of betting that has been on the rise and steadily growing. All the kids that have ever played video games are rejoicing now that they know money can be made from one of their hobbies.

Later on, I will be discussing the ins and outs of betting in this arena. The best of the best in terms of websites to visit as well as who the most well-known bookmakers are and where you can find them will be talked about. Last but not least and most important: how to bet.

Before we begin we can discuss exactly what esports mean.

What Are They?

Esports are what as known as “electronic sports”. All the popular games like Call of Duty, Fortnite, and League of Legends would be classified as electronic sports. They involve either a solo player or team trying to complete an objective against or faster than their opposition. This normally takes place over an Internet-based connection.

Now not just any game is classified as an E-sport. The difference between the games I just mentioned and say Assassins Creed is that games like Fortnite attract a lot of attention. Companies seek out players and teams to sponsor and these games have huge tournaments that have thousands of people watching and screaming just like regular sports.

With this in mind, these tournaments bring in the top players in different games because of the rewards like sponsorships and 7 figure prize money for winning a tournament. A large breadth of these players come from Eastern Asia where professional gaming is much more prevalent and is clearly visible in the skill gap between teams from other continents.

As of now, League of Legends and a few other games run the entirety of the market since it is still very young, but it isn’t impossible to find betting in other places. On top of a huge incentive for players to join, viewership for esports has skyrocketed as well. A lot of kids used to watch their favorite gamers on Youtube; now with the advent of other streaming services like Twitch and Mixer which is exclusive to Xbox, big corporations saw the opportunity to cash in on this phenomenon.

The Popularity of Betting on Esports

Initially, the idea of betting on esports did not sound enticing, especially to the sports purists. Watching some nerdy kid play a game that they also used to play and make 6 figures from it sounded infuriating. But many people still watch and have been attracted to it despite previous sentiments.

Starting from 2016, esports has grown considerably and now more companies are offering it alongside their traditional sports bets. Most major books like offer e-sports betting.

How Does It Work?

E-sports betting operates no differently than traditional betting systems. You pick your stake and bet just like you would for basketball or horse racing, it’s all very simple. Even what you win is paid out in the same manner, the methodology is no different.

Is There Any Difference?

The only difference between e-sports betting and traditional betting is what you’re betting on. In sports, it’s a competition of physical and mental prowess between two athletes or teams, whereas in e-sports it’s mostly a mental thing. Don’t count these players out, their reaction times and mental processing speeds are nothing to scoff at.

What’s the Deal?

Of course, I’m sure you’re very skeptical of the mechanics behind all of it. How can you be certain that nobody is working together or will rip you out of your money? To put it simply, there is a governing body for all of this just like any other betting arena.

It has been regulated with its own statutes and codes so everyone is on an even playing field. In theory, the players could collude against the house and we all know they wouldn’t like that, so they made sure that nobody could be screwed.

There isn’t really an incentive to throw a game because of possible striking it rich. Everyone involved has a reason to give maximum effort and come out as a champion whether you’re betting or playing on the big monitor on stage. Furthermore, it would be very easy to tell if a player was giving up. There are millions of people watching via live stream around the world and in the offices of the committees that run everything.

So it’s safe to say that your bet is as protected as any in e-sports and might even be safer than other types of events.

Betting on Your Phone

There aren’t any mobile apps that exist as of this writing that I am aware of but you can just go on a web browser and log on like you would on a computer. Refresh the page to stay updated on any active bets going and see where you stand. In the future, now that it has been legalized across the United States, many companies will be investing in easier to use platforms so that more people can join.

History and Future

E-sports tournaments have been around longer than betting itself. Starting around 2012 was the year that these large tournaments were televised on large services like Youtube and Twitch. The most recent League of Legends Tournament completely sold out Madison Square Garden in New York City and that was live viewing. The fanbase is there already it’s just a matter of finding people who also like to bet on their favorite games as well.

The issue lies in that a lot of the people watching are young kids who don’t have the money or interest to really bet on e-sports, they just want to watch or play. Once these people get a bit older, they either grow out of video games or still don’t have a habit of gambling so it’s a really tight niche market but there’s a lot of room for growth.

Like I mentioned before, the majority of viewers are younger kids and commercials will be playing for these betting sites most likely. It’s a possibility they will look into it since they are impressionable but at the same time, they probably have the most knowledge and will do fairly well.

Looking into the future it is hard to tell how the industry will advance. E-sports is already estimated at a hundred million plus dollar industry and a lot of the money that is thrown around is from players themselves wagering against one another.

If e-sports progresses like regular sports and there’s a bunch of different leagues with different skill levels of players etc then there will be a lot more room for people to bet. Players can get family and friends to potentially support them and smaller entities will probably join the ring in terms of sponsorships.

What the future holds is a mystery just like everything else but with the growth that both industries are experiencing, it is logical to project that many more people will get involved regardless of their experience in the arena.

Betting against the public is the epitome of intensity in the gambling world. What are the odds and who is picking who? Everyone believes they have all the answers but then they start second-guessing and choose the safe pick a.k.a the popular pick. Those who stick to their conviction believe they have the advantage because they bet against the public who most of the time are uninformed and misguided.

Real Facts vs Fake News

From the outside, it seems sensible to use this strategy fairly often because if the popular pick won every time then there would be no sportsbooks in business. Any sort of house or dealer tries their best to get some of the pie especially when odds are 50/50 and they do their job well. They can’t let the free-thinkers make them look foolish either. So usually they will survey the area and play a little bit on both sides

When the common choice is made clear, the bookies usually end up on top. If they’re the ones making all the money, why would you not align with them? Like they say: “the house always wins” and the worst thing that can happen is you end up like the rest of those who didn’t pick the correct side.

You can see this strategy firsthand in everyday life. Ask someone how they feel about two opponents, one of which is the obvious choice to win. They look at you in confusion as if the person/team they pick has never been beaten before. At the end of the day, most bettors enter the life because they were fans initially and have a stake in it already. It is everyone’s dream to watch their team win while getting rich and it’s seemingly easy money if you just choose the best team… or so they think.

With this in mind, the bookies can adjust accordingly and shift their lines to put themselves in a position to cash out as much as they can and the security of the common man not doing any research to realize this. The really obvious picks will adjust even more and raise the stakes higher for those enough to bet the opposite.

People Lie – Numbers Don’t

In all sports, home court advantage is seen as a decent metric for telling which team will win. This proves false especially in the NBA which is good news for contrarian bettors. Road teams have won 51% of the time since 2005. What’s even better is that when this is ignored by the public, the record improves. Teams in the middle of a long road trip do the best. During that time period so long as they receive less than 1/3 of the spread, win almost 60% of the time.

In the college world, March Madness upsets have made people literal millionaires overnight. In the regular season on the more heavily-bet games, going opposite of the public has proven a good choice as 56% of the time it’s the better choice. It’s impossible to adopt a system that is invincible due to the inevitable fact that a market correction will be made. However, going opposite of the public bet is a strategy that’s proven lucrative and has fared well so far.