Tag: ATP

ATP Next Gen Finals Weekend Preview

Posted on by Tyler Vaysman

The 2023 ATP Next Gen Finals began on November 28 at the King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The annual tournament brings together eight of the top 21-and-under players on the ATP Tour and has $2 million in prize money on the line. Brandon Nakashima won last year’s event, while other past winners include Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Carlos Alcaraz and Holger Rune were the top two qualifiers for this year’s tournament but, of course, both qualified for the Nitto ATP Finals, won by Novak Djokovic. Ben Shelton and Lorenzo Musetti also qualified, but withdrew from the event. 

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A Recap of the Group Stage

The group stage began on November 28 with Arthur Fils, Dominic Stricker, Flavio Cobolli, and Luca Nardi in the Green Group. Luca Van Assche, Alex Michelsen, Hamad Medjedovic, and Abdullah Shelbayh were in the Red Group. 

Fils won the Green Group with a perfect 3-0 record, while Stricker finished in second despite having a 1-2 record. Both Cobolli and Nardi also had a 1-2 record, but Stricker barely squeaked by with a 5-6 set record, whereas Cobolli and Nardi had 5-7 and 5-8 set records, respectively.

Medjedovic, the sixth seed, was the surprise victor in the Red Group with a perfect 3-0 record. Van Assche qualified in second place with a 2-1 record, beating Michelsen and Shelbayah. 

Semifinal Matches

Arthur Fils (-400) vs. Luca Van Assche (+275)

Fils and Van Assche meet in the first of two semifinals on Friday afternoon. Fils, as the top seed in the tournament, is the clear betting favorite. They have never played each other in an official ATP Tour event, but Van Assche has a victory over Fils in the 2021 French Open juniors competition. 

Fils is 44-22 this season, including 20-8 on indoor hard courts. Van Assche is 34-29 and 15-8 on indoor hard courts. Fils lost three matches in a row heading into the ATP Next Gen Finals, while Van Assche won two of three heading into the tournament. There’s a lot of reasons to like Van Assche for the upset here.

Dominic Stricker (+110) vs. Hamad Medjedovic (-135)

Stricker and Medjedovic have also never played each other in their careers. Stricker, the world No. 94, was just 7-8 in ATP Tour matches this season and is 19-17 in his career. He last played at the ATP 500 event in Basel, reaching the quarter-finals before losing to Ugo Humbert. He picked up a win over Casper Ruud in the Round of 16. Medjedovic was 3-0 in the round robin and had lost four ATP matches in a row before the start of the Next Gen Finals.

There’s a lot to like about Stricker in Friday’s semifinal match, especially as the underdog. He may not have performed as well as Medjedovic, but he had a tougher group and was playing better heading into the event.

Finals Prediction

If we’re assuming Van Assche and Stricker win their respective matches, that sets up an intriguing final match between two up-and-coming players. They’v also never played each other, but Van Assche is the higher-ranked player and had slightly better results as of late.

Title Winner Prediction: Van Assche (bet at BetUS)

Nitto ATP Finals Weekend Update

Posted on by Tyler Vaysman

The Nitto ATP Finals began on November 12, bringing together the top eight players this season to compete for the season title on indoor hard courts in Turin, Italy. The round robin tournament concludes this weekend with the top four players competing in the semifinals and the winners of those matches meeting in the finals on Sunday.

Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Holger Rune, Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Andrey Rublev, and Daniil Medvedev all qualified for this year’s Nitto ATP Finals. Rune, Sinner, and Alcaraz were playing in the tournament for the first time as direct qualifiers, while Djokovic, Zverev, Tsitsipas, and Medvedev are all past champions.

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Who Has Advanced?

As of Friday, two of the four semifinal spots were secured, although the semifinal matches won’t be decided until the conclusion of the last two round robin matches. Sinner and Djokovic qualified in the Green Group. Tsitsipas was forced to withdraw from the tournament in his second match and was replaced by Hubert Hurkacz, while Rune came up just short in his attempt to reach the semi-final. He needed a win against Sinner on Thursday, but the Italian won 6-2, 5-7, 6-4. 

Still in Contention

The Red Group, meanwhile, is still wide open with two round robin games remaining Friday. Rublev is out of contention after losing each of his first two matches, but any two of Alcaraz, Medvedev, and Zverev can qualify for the semi-finals depending on what happens Friday. 

Alcaraz and Medvedev were slated to play early Friday morning. The winner of that match would automatically earn entry into the semi-finals, although the loser could still qualify if Rublev defeats Zverev later in the day. The only way Zverev qualifies is if he defeats Rublev and Medvedev beats Alcaraz.

Round Robin Results

Sinner finished the round robin with a perfect 3-0 record to win the Green Group, while Djokovic, who will finish the year as the No. 1 ranked player on the ATP Tour for the eighth time in his career, just snuck in with a 2-1 record with each of his games going three sets. 

In the Red Group, Zverev opened the tournament with an upset victory 6-7 (3), 6-3, 6-4 over Alcaraz, but lost in straight sets to Medvedev in his second match. Medvedev is 2-0, with wins over Zverev and Rublev. Alcaraz beat Rublev 7-5, 6-2 in his second match.

Semifinal Scenarios and H2H Results

Medvedev can still win his group even with a loss, so let’s assume for now that he takes the top seed and Alcaraz finishes second. If that were the case, Medvedev would play Djokovic, who he has a 5-10 career record against. Alcaraz or Zverev, in second place, would play Sinner. Surprisingly, Sinner is 4-3 against Alcaraz but just 1-4 against Zverev. 

The favorite, obviously, would be Djokovic, considering he has a winning record against each of the other possible opponents. However, Sinner is playing the best tennis of his career right now, recently winning the Vienna Open in late October, where he beat Medvedev in the final. 

Finals Prediction

With Sinner and Djokovic already through and players in the other group having to play another gruelling match on Friday, there’s good value in betting on a Sinner-Djokovic final. Djokovic is 3-1 against Sinner and you can bet he’s poised and motivated to get his win back after losing to Sinner in the round robin.

Finals Pick: Djokovic def. Sinner

Bet on Djokovic over at BetDSI