Tag: fly

The third part of our four-part series on handicapping techniques deals with situational handicapping. Situational handicapping is fairly self-explanatory in that you look at the situations teams are in and compare that to how teams have fared in that situation in the past.

Situational handicapping methods are measurable, meaning you can tell exactly how they have performed in the past. If you were to specify “NFL road dogs who lost their previous game as a home favorite by at least 28 points are 18-7-3 dating back to 1990,” that is something you can measure precisely.

Some people will refer to situational handicapping as system handicapping, which is fine, just as some people will refer to certain intangibles, such as travel, time changes, etc., as situational factors, which is perfectly acceptable, as well. There’s really no need to get into semantics, which just takes away from the primary goal of handicappers, which should be to come out ahead of the bookmakers.

The one requirement for any situational play is the premise behind the method has to make sense. That’s open to a bit of interpretation, but if you use a bit of common sense you should be OK.

Baseball: Situational handicapping isn’t used extensively in baseball for the reason that baseball is a sport that lends itself to statistical handicapping almost exclusively, as well as the fact that players expect ups-and-downs over the course of the season and know there will be days they blow out teams and days where they are blown out. You don’t see the emotion that you often do in other sports.

Basketball: Situational handicapping can be useful in basketball, particularly college basketball where the players are a bit more emotional than their professional counterparts. The NBA is also a good sport for attacking from a statistical basis, while there are fewer games in college. Like baseball, it’s a bit of a chore to try and dig for situational edges when there are games played every night.

Football: If there was one sport that is tailor-made for situational handicapping, it’s football. You have a week in between games, which gives you ample time to look for spots, study line moves and more. I’ll frequently try to find situations where I’m on the opposite side of the betting public, but don’t really make it a requirement. There is also the fact that the season is so short it can be tough to build an accurate statistical base.

Hockey: Situational handicapping is probably more helpful in the NHL than it is in the NBA just due to the difference in scoring. You can get more accurate statistical projections in the NBA than you will in the NHL because of the numbers. If you have a projection of 102.5 in the NBA, it doesn’t really matter if you round up or down, it won’t make that much of a difference. But if you have a projection of 2.5 goals in the NHL, you’re talking a huge difference between two goals or three goals.

Fewer people bet the NHL, so you’re likely to find a couple of decent situations. One I found in a couple of minutes while writing this section of the articles was teams who have won their last two games as home underdogs are 25-59 if they are road underdogs in their next game. Betting on these teams would have yielded a $1,770 loss, while betting against them would have netted a $1,366 profit and an ROI of 8.8%

Many people look at an MLB rotation on a given day and look for teams to bet “on” that are perceived to simply be the better team. In a way, that’s the public way of thinking and what the bookmakers practically count on. In the continuing theme of both trying to educate and get people to look at things differently, let’s look at FADING teams and players.

Probably more than half the bets I make are betting against teams and pitchers rather than on them. It’s also where you’ll generally find the best prices/value.

The most simple one is fading a starter that’s had great numbers but a very high pitch count game. A great example right now is Wade Miley this week. He had the best WHIP in baseball not long ago and because of his great start, still is for some bettors. However, last week he threw 119 pitches against Washington. Miley hadn’t thrown that many since a game in August of 2015, and the following game was one of his worst of the season.

What’s even more interesting is that two years ago the team that shelled him after the exhausting game was the Tigers, and this week he’s pitching against – – the Tigers. So, in that game it won’t matter for me who Detroit throws out there, we’ll be on the Tigers. If the Tigers are throwing out someone that Baltimore may have some success on we may be on the over as well, all revolving around fading Wade Miley.

Fading bullpens that have been used is a another great example. We can look and see whose bullpens are performing well from a numbers standpoint, but we can also see clearly which bullpens have been used. In this age of specialization many of these relievers are “unavailable” after pitching two straight days. And if you’re following games, often times they warm up but don’t get into the game. That’s often times just as taxing

And example here would be the White Sox. Their pen has been very good most of the season, but look at the usage the last three games:

They don’t have anyone that’s truly rested, and Robertson (their closer) has thrown a lot of pitches in two of the last three games. If nothing else, you would potentially use this game in an “over”, especially if the White Sox starter is one that might be in a bad spot, or one that might not typically give his team a quality start, hence bringing in the bullpen sooner rather than later. At the very least, it would be a situation where we (I) would not take Chicago, unless it were a first-five inning bet. You’ve got to do your best to eliminate way you can lose a bet, just as you find ways to win a bet.

And of course the converse is true that you can bet ON bullpens that are over-performing and rested. The Yankees in this case would be on that list. Over the last week their bullpen ERA is UP over what it has been, and they’ve had a blown save. As we know they’ve got perhaps the best 8th/9th inning duo in the league with Betances and Chapman, but on top of that they’re ALL rested.

As you can see, not one Yankee reliever threw a pitch yesterday. They’ve also got two rested left-handed pitchers before they’d get to Chapman. The point here is that we would bet ON the Yankees here, or ON their bullpen, given the appropriate starter. Even a starter that might not typically pitch deep like Montgomery, who hasn’t pitched more than six innings in a game this season.

This example is even more magnified on a day like today (the 14th) because they’re playing a double-header, which is yet one more variable. So, while we’re at it, another thing to consider is double-headers. Rarely would you want to bet the second game first, regardless of the pitching match up. That’s true not only because of bullpens, but you just can’t assume what the starting lineups will be.

Now that we’ve gotten off the original track, let me come full circle. Sometimes when we’re handicapping the path of least resistance is not the best one. In fact, it rarely is. Try looking for teams and situations to bet AGAINST. A team playing their first home game after a long road trip is always a good fade spot. They’ve been gone from families, too, and they’ve got the same things to deal with after being gone ten days as most of us would.

We’ve got more situations, and we’ll look at them in the neat future. For now, try looking at things differently, but remember to track them. Having a reference a reference point and/or a baseline is the only way. And if you don’t know we’re you’ve been you won’t know where you’re going.

Dave Essler is a handicapper at Pregame, featured on ESPN, Fox Sports, CNN and others.

Reverse Line Movement – If you’ve heard the term but don’t know what it’s referencing, then in a few hundred words you will. Remember, there are no stupid questions, only stupid answers. So, here we go.

These days there are any number of sites that publish the ticket count for games, which is exactly what it says, ticket count. Specifically, the number of bets on the game and betting consensus. Often times you will see cases where there are far more tickets on one team than the other, and yet the line is moving away from the team with more bets. That means there is more MONEY on the team with less tickets.

Here’s an the rotation for May 15th.

The column marked “spread” is the run line, and obviously the ML column reflects the money line. I don’t think I need to explain “total.” As you can see, the Astros are attracting 73% of the ML tickets, and yet after opening at -118 they are down to -109. The same can be said for Toronto, grabbing 87% of the tickets yet moving down to -131. Quite simply, that is RLM.

However, there’s more to it. First of all there are only 1086 tickets on the Houston game, which isn’t much. For comparison’s sake an NFL game will have tens of thousands of tickets on it. You’ve also got to factor in the time of day, since often times a syndicate will move a line one way, knowing they want to come back and take the other side at a better number. That’s more common than you might think.

Since there are multiple sites with bet percentages, you’ll often see different numbers on the same game. You might ask how is that possible, and I’ll give you the answer. Most sites have affiliations with a specific set of sportsbooks, so they’ll get different numbers. Each cross-section of sportsbooks might be different. So, if you’re going to use these numbers it’s advisable to use the same site over and over, because over time you will see patterns, and that’s what we’re looking for.

I get asked fairly often how many tickets is enough to make a judgment call, and the answer is always different. Obviously in baseball there are going to be less tickets, so the baseline will differ. The time of day matters, so you’ve got to “take readings” at similar times.

As I spoke about earlier, it’s not uncommon for a service to give out the team with the reverse line movement in their favor, and typically late in the day. Actually, it’s quite common. You don’t need a service to tell you that. More importantly, if you’re late to the party you are just not (ever) going to get the best number. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t bet the game.

If you’re going to use this method on your own, you’ve got to do one of two things. Either develop yourself a baseline of parameters as to what is and what is not a bet, or alternatively bet them all. The reason for betting them all is that there is no way you (or anyone, for that matter) can truly tell you what is and what is not sharp money every single time. You’re using a system is all.

It can work, but don’t be fooled by people telling you they are truly handicapping a game when they’re giving these picks out an hour before first pitch. To be brutally honest, I’ll follow some of them myself, but I’ll make it clear that that’s what we’re doing, because many recreational bettors don’t even have the time to look themselves.

Dave Essler is a handicapper from Pregame, featured on ESPN, Fox Sports, CNN, & more.
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As we know, in-game wagering is evolving on a regular basis. Professional bettors are utilizing it perhaps more than the full-game, set-it-and-forget-it bets. Now, if you’re just throwing some milk-money on games for action, that’s one thing. If you’re truly trying to grow your bankroll, it’s quite another.

If you have the time and are following your bets as they’re being played out, there’s no reason you shouldn’t be progressive.

A lot of very successful bettors I know bet nothing but bet first-five innings in baseball. They can be much easier to handicap simply because we’re taking the bullpens completely out of the equation. But, there’s much more to it than that. They create more opportunities for in-game wagering at some great prices with very little risk, if any.

Last night’s game in Washington between the Orioles and Nationals is a textbook example to use. We had taken the “over” for first five innings and had it won when the Orioles scored in the top of the fifth inning to take a 5-1 lead. But, at the time Wade Miley had already thrown 100 pitches, and the Orioles bullpen had been abused the last two nights. We knew Washington would at least have chances somewhere along the line if they could shut down Baltimore. They did and of course won the game in the ninth.

We bet the Nationals to win the game, live wagering. A double win for us at a great price.

That was clearly the best case scenario, and of course they don’t all work out that well. But wait, there’s more. Let’s look at totals for a minute. Let’s assume we bet a game to go “over” 8 runs. In the first two innings they’ve got five runs so we’re looking great. We’ve got that ticket cashed! Well, maybe we do and maybe we don’t, because we all know that games like that often end 4-3.

But, rather than think we’ve got it won, let’s think how we might maximize that position we’re in. The new in-game total that the book throws up between innings might be twelve. Well, if that game had “12” written on it before it started we’d have bet heavily on the under, more than likely. So, why wouldn’t we take an in-game under and have a shot to middle, or hit both sides? Especially if we’re not involving half-runs, because we could easily “push” one and win one.

The point here is that we cannot limit our thinking. Yes, if you’re a recreational bettor with two small children and a job, that does create a higher degree of difficulty, which is why finding a “good tout” might help. But, if you have the time there is no reason why you wouldn’t want to be looking for opportunities. They don’t happen every game, or even every night. But they present themselves in a big way if you’re paying attention.

We know that a very small percentage of people make money gambling. That is in spite of claims to the contrary, and I am actually a tout. A tout that’s trying to help educate people. If Apple comes out with an iPhone 8, people will line up for the newest thing, or at the very least explore it. If a bookmaker offers something new and different, at the very least you owe it to yourself to explore it.

If you don’t know, ask. The saying that there are not stupid questions, only stupid answers, definitely applies. I ask people that are much sharper than me in some niche’s a question almost every day.

Remember, think long term and act short term. It’s the only way and there are no shortcuts.

Dave Essler is a professional handicapper from Pregame, featured on ESPN, CNN, Fox Sports, and more.

Of course I’m not talking about losing a bet intentionally, but let’s face it, they happen. Whether it was a terrible handicapping job or a close one that could have gone either way, we’re going to lose. In fact, we know the magic number to win against the -110 is 52.38%. That’s just it. That means we’re going to lose a lot of games.

For me, the first thing I do after (and sometimes during) a loss, is look back and see what I missed. What I missed might be quite obvious, or it might not even be on paper. It could be a situation that was missed. Regardless, there had to be something. We have to find “that something” before we go forward so we don’t make the mistake again. Honestly, I’ve learned much more from embarrassing losses than great wins.

Everyone has great wins, but that doesn’t mean “we got this”. Everyone has bad losses. And by that I don’t mean “bad beats” where we could/should have won. There is no such thing as a “right side” losing ticket. It cashes or it doesn’t. But, it’s always what we do next that matters the most. Don’t lament the past, use it to your advantage.

You win more money by eliminating mistakes than you do by making really good calls, trust me. All you want to do is put yourself in the best possible position to win, day after day. So on Sunday I learned something. We won three and lost one MLB game, and I am far more focused on the Rockies losing in 13 innings than I am on the three easy ones.

Looking back, they had their chances as most teams do. They had the bases loaded with no outs and didn’t score. They had a leadoff hit in extra innings and didn’t even attempt to bunt. So, although they had more chances that Arizona, they just didn’t execute. That’s what we learned, so what we do is move them down the list of teams we trust. It doesn’t mean we don’t bet on them, we’ve just got to look harder at their games and see if they can get away with sloppy execution. My quick conclusion is that yes, they can get away with no being their best, but not on the road. At least not for now.

I found that to be the case with the Rays not long ago. It has already made me money by not costing me money. I did not bet on them today in Toronto, as bad as Toronto has been, even with Archer pitching. Honestly, I leaned to the under which cashed, but I didn’t bet it. That’s OK. That just means we have a good feel for them now, too.

After a loss, it can make a person too emotional. After a win, it can make a person emotional. Take it out of the equation. You’ve simply got to treat it as you would your job or your business and get better every day.

So, when you lose there’s often no need to reinvent the wheel, and when you win it doesn’t mean you’re good to go and should be moving to Nevada. The truth is almost always somewhere between the two. Stay focused and learn from the losses and you’ll win more, or lose less. If you follow someone, ask what they missed – it’s the only way to get better, whether you’re doing your own work or paying someone else too.

Dave is a professional bettor/handicapper on Pregame, featured on EPSN, CNN, Fox Sports, and more.