Preview of UFC Abu Dhabi

While Las Vegas, Nevada hosts the most UFC events, Abu Dhabi is another location that is known for having some great MMA action. The UFC will be returning to Abu Dhabi this weekend, and the fans in that part of the world will be treated to an excellent show.

Not only are several of the fights going to be excellent to watch this weekend, but many will also come with some great betting options. If you are going to be checking out the action, then you should also be looking to make some bets on the winners. 

Here is a look at some of the top fights coming to the UFC Abu Dhabi and the betting picks to make. 

A Great Main Event

When looking at the UFC fight card, it’s always a good idea to start by checking out the main event of the night. It doesn’t get much better than the main event this weekend as it will be Cory Sandhagen set to take on Umar Nurmagomedov. 

This will not be a matchup for a title, but it’s a fight that has been building for more than a year. These two bantamweight fighters are both going to be looking for a big win, and it is Nurmagomedov that is a big favorite in this one. 

Even though Sandhagen is a big underdog in his first ever main event fight, you can expect him to keep this battle close. Taking Nurmagomedov at -300 will be the way to go in Abu Dhabi, but there will be some big punches landed in this one. 

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Interesting Co-Main Events

You can usually count on the UFC to set up some great co-main events as well, and that is going to be what plays out this weekend in Abu Dhabi. Shara Magomedov will face off against Michal Oleksiejczuk in what should be a great battle. 

These betting odds are much tighter between the middleweights, but it is Magomedov that is the clear betting favorite at -225. This will be just his third fight since joining UFC, but he has looked extremely impressive in each of his first two bouts. 

This will be another situation where it does make sense to go with Oleksiejczuk to pull off an upset, but he is also the underdog for a reason. In another thrilling fight, it will be Magomedov that does his job and comes away with a win. 

Looking for an Upset

The goal when betting on UFC should always be to hit on a big upset each night, and there will be some opportunities out there. You don’t just want to blindly pick an underdog to come away with a win, but some odds stand out right away. 

Elves Brener is set to take on Joel Alvarez this weekend in Abu Dhabi and this is the perfect chance to score an upset. Brener is an accomplished UFC fighter, but he is an underdog at +163 this weekend. 

Those odds are in the perfect area to strike, and jumping on him to come up with a win will be the way to go. 

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NASCAR Grant Park 220

Apparently, video games can become a reality, and NASCAR is set to take over the Second City streets and the Chicago Loop on a circuit that was once only a reality in a virtual world.

With its origins in e-Racing, NASCAR has taken inspiration from its open-wheel counterparts like Formula 1, IndyCar, and Formula E and is turning part of South Lake Shore Blvd and Downtown Chicago into a street course for the NASCAR Cup and Xfinity Series’ this weekend.

Unlike the ovals that dominate the NASCAR schedule, or permanent road tracks and purpose-built racing facilities like Circuit of the Americas (CoTA) or Sonoma Raceway, the Chicago circuit will take the NASCAR drivers through Grant Park with Lake Michigan on the left, while the Drivers will zip past the Spearman sculpture through the turns 8-10 complex on East Congress Plaza that crosses Ida B. Wells Drive. The Grant Park Circuit features many straights that lead to heavy-braking zones and 90-degree turns.

Despite the unknowns and intangibles involved and the general competitiveness and unpredictability of most NASCAR races, Bangthebook has dug a little deeper to help your NASCAR Grant Park 220 betting picks be winning ones.

Check out Nascar odds on BetUS

Will Road Course Success = Street Circuit Success?

NASCAR has had two non-oval events this season: the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas and the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway two weeks ago. While being good on road courses will be helpful on an entirely new circuit, can past road course success translate to NASCAR’s Chicago Street Circuit?

Unfortunately for 23 XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick (+650), success at CoTA did not translate to success at Sonoma. Reddick and Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron (+1200) engaged in a two-car battle that resembled Formula 1 more than NASCAR, breaking away from the pack at CoTA until caution flags bunched the field up. In the end, Reddick won the race, while late race caution flags helped drop Byron to fifth after capturing pole position and the stage 1 win. At Sonoma, Reddick finished 33rd.

Byron is among BangtheBook’s favored NASCAR picks and having an excellent season, with three race wins and ten top-ten finishes landing him second in the NASCAR Drivers’ Championship standings. However, despite looking ready for a jump to open-wheel racing at CoTa, Byron finished a respectable but somewhat disappointing 14th.

Byron bounced back with a sixth-place finish in Nashville, his seventh top-ten finish in the last eight races.

The Hot Hand

In the unpredictable world of NASCAR, there might not be a Driver with a hotter hand at the moment than current Drivers’ Championship leader Martin Truex Jr. (+775) While Truex Jr. finished 17th at CoTA – one of six finishes outside the top ten in his first seven races, Truex Jr. has been a force since his seventh place finish at Bristol.

Since Bristol, Truex Jr. has two race wins, five top-five, and eight top-ten finishes. There are two things to note about Truex Jr.’s recent run of form: he’s finished in the top five in the last four races, including finishing second in Nashville, and he was the winner at Sonoma and led the most laps.

BangtheBooks Favored Contenders

While we can’t shine the light on every driver, we have three drivers you should consider as potential Grant Park 220 winners.

Trackhouse Racing’s Ross Chastain (+1200) won his first race of the season at Nashville and currently sits third in the Drivers’ Standings. Chastain has had an up-and-down season but has collected eight top-ten finishes this season, including a tenth-place finish at Sonoma, while finishing 12th at CoTA.

Kyle Busch (+1000) has three race wins and ten top-ten finishes this season, including five top-ten finishes in his last five races, finishing second at Sonoma. Busch also finished second at CoTa, emerging from the late-race restart chaos.

Hendrick Motorsports Kyle Larson (+850) is Bangthebook’s last potential winner at Grant Park. Larson is always a betting favorite in most NASCAR races and has two race wins and eight top-ten finishes this season, including three top-ten finishes in his last three races.

However, BangtheBook’s NASCAR Betting Pick is to take Kyle Busch at +1000 to win the Grant Park 220.

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Austrian Grand Prix Betting Preview

Until defeated in a straight fight, Red Bull’s Max Verstappen will be the betting favorite and pick to win every weekend. Moreover, unless Verstappen is injured and unable to compete, he is a lock to win a third consecutive Drivers’ World Championship, as no driver has ever lost the World Championship with the 69-point lead Verstappen has over struggling teammate Sergio Pérez.

However, weather and the current Sprint Race format are among the factors in play that could jeopardize the seemingly inevitable Verstappen-Red Bull win. This combination could open the door for Fernando Alonso or Charles Leclerc to end Red Bulls’ eight-race winning streak and domination of Formula 1 in 2023 at their home Grand Prix. As always, Bangthebook is searching for winning wagers and has selected our favored lines for the Austrian Grand Prix and qualifying. However, as the available odds are somewhat limited for the F1 Sprint Saturday, we’re limiting our picks to Friday’s qualifying and Sunday’s Grand Prix.

Check out the Austrian Grand Prix odds on BetUS

Red Bull Versus the World – Chapter Nine

Think back to Sprint Race weekends like São Paulo 2022 or Azerbaijan 2023, and you’ll likely remember a Red Bull team that struggled to get their dominant machinery in the perfect set-up window, even in Verstappen’s hands. While Sergio Pérez won the Azerbaijan Grand Prix weekend, that might have been more Pérez being the King of the Streets on the circuit where he’s had his greatest success, with a side of Verstappen being thoroughly unhappy with his ride.

BetOnline has Max Verstappen (-300) favored to defeat the field (+240) in the Austrian Grand Prix, while Sergio Pérez’s recent struggles since his pole position in Miami and historic lack of success in Austria have him listed as the underdog (+1000) against the field (-2500) in the Grand Prix. This is despite Red Bull’s Honda-powered turbo charger being excellent at altitude and the Red Bull Ring’s long straights and fast corners, which should play to the RB-19’s strengths.

Chapter nine of Red Bull vs the World has the combination of weather and only one practice session before qualifying to add a little chaos into the equation. But until Verstappen is beaten in a Grand Prix via a straight fight, BangtheBook is taking Verstappen over the field to win his fourth Austrian Grand Prix and his fifth consecutive Grand Prix while taking Red Bull as the winning constructor if the betting lines are available.

Friday Qualifying

With F1 Sprint Saturday throwing away the normal F1 weekend schedule, Qualifying is moved from its traditional Saturday spot, taking place Friday, with the cars going into Parc Fermé after only one hour of running. With rain in the forecast, we could see another mixed-up grid and a potential shock pole position like Haas’ Kevin Magnussen’s pole position at the 2022 São Paulo Grand Prix.

Verstappen has claimed three-straight pole positions and five of the eight pole positions this season. Despite being in the same RB-19, we don’t like Pérez’ss chances in qualifying on a circuit he’s never had success at and potentially in conditions not conducive to his peak pace. So, while we’re taking Verstappen to take pole position, those live odds are not available, and there are no Red Bull inclusive qualifying betting lines as of publication.

However, there are numerous head-to-head betting lines available for the Grand Prix and qualifying.

The Best Austrian Grand Prix Head-To-Head Betting Options

Here are Bangthebook’s favored head-to-head betting lines for the Austrian Grand Prix and Qualifying.

We’re looking for wins, and we start with lowly Williams, where Alex Albon (-800) has out-qualified rookie teammate Logan Sargeant (+500) in all eight qualifying sessions this season. We’re also taking Albon (-500) to defeat Sargeant (+350) in the Austrian Grand Prix, as Albon has out-finished Sargeant in five straight races and all six races that Albon has finished.

McLaren is bringing a mega update to Speilberg, and while they’ll be fighting with the Alpine drivers and Aston Martin and Ferriari’s second drivers for the final points positions. We’re favoring Lando Norris (-550) – who has an excellent one-lap pace even in poor conditions – to out-qualify Oscar Piastri (+375) for the eighth time this season.

We’re also taking Fernando Alonso (-500 GP, -700 Qualifying) to win both inner-Aston Martin battles with Lance Stroll (-700, +450 qualifying), as Alonso has out-qualified and finished higher than Stroll seven times.

Speaking of second drivers, our final featured head-to-head betting line is a Mercedes vs Ferrari Grand Prix shootout. Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz (+105) and Mercedes’ George Russell (-125) are tied 4-4 in head-to-head Grand Prix competition. However, Russell has two DNF/retirements on his record, including last weekend in Montréal. The Ferrari looked quick in Montreál, while Mercedes are still bringing upgrades and optimizing the package it introduced at Monaco.

However, Russell was on a three-race winning streak and on the way to a fourth consecutive win over Sainz in Montreal before kissing the wall and causing terminal damage to the W-14. We’ve liked what we’ve seen from Russell and Mercedes recently and think Ferrari’s fast weekend in Montréal may have been more track-specific than Ferrari turning a corner. That’s why we’re taking Russell to out-finish Sainz in the Austrian Grand Prix.

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Rocket Mortgage Classic Betting Preview

The PGA Tour heads to Detroit, Michigan, this week for the fifth edition of the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Country Club. When the first tournament was held in 2019, it marked the first time a PGA Tour event was played within the city limits of the city. Tournament play begins on Thursday, June 29th and ends on Sunday, July 2nd.

Tony Finau will tee it up this week, looking to defend his title. Finau blitzed the course in 2022, setting the tournament record with a four-day total score of 262 (16-under par). The victory was Finau’s second in as many weeks after winning the 3M Open a week earlier. Finau’s five-shot win was the largest margin of his career, besting runner-ups Patrick Cantlay, Taylor Pendrith, and Cameron Young.

Check out the Rocket Mortgage classic odds on BetUS

Big Names Teeing it Up

After a major tournament and elevated event back-to-back, most of the best players on the PGA are taking a breather this week. Even with many names out, the field remains strong with a handful of top players electing to play.

Four of the top 20 players in the world are in the field, led by Max Homa, who comes in at no. 9. Adding to the list is Finau who is joined by multiple major winners, Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa. Fan favorite and Rocket Mortgage ambassador Rickie Fowler looks to keep his solid play going as the calendar turns to July.

Three of the past four winner’s of the tournament are back in Detroit; the only past champion not playing this week is Bryson DeChambeau (2020). Nate Lashley (2019) and Cameron Davis (2021) picked up their first and only PGA Tour wins at DCC.

Finau and Fowler Headline Favorites

Finau and Fowler are the pre-tournament favorites at +1400 apiece. Fowler is looking to get back into the winner’s circle for the first time since 2019 and has a great opportunity after four-straight starts of T13 or better. Finau has been quiet since picking up his second win of the season at the Mexico Open but can turn it on quickly.

Morikawa (+1600) comes in right behind the favorites. The two-time major winner aims for his first victory since hoisting the Claret Jug in 2021. Morikawa is coming off a missed cut at last week’s Travelers Championship.

Rounding out the Top 5 betting favorites are Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama at +1800. Thomas has had a rough season, coming in ranked 66th in the FedEx Cup Standings and missing two of three cuts at major tournaments. The two-time PGA Championship winner comes to Detroit after a T9 finish at the Travelers last week, his best finish since a solo 4th at the WM Phoenix Open in February. 

Other notables just below the top five are Max Homa, Sungjae Im, and Tom Kim, all with odds of +2200. Homa has a pair of wins this year and has finished just inside the T25 in two appearances at this event. Kim tries to improve on his solo seventh last season, while Im has made the cut here in both tries, his best finish a T8 in 2021.

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Odds to win Big Ten Conference

The College Football season is right around the corner, and it’s time to start looking conference by conference at potential winners. The odds are available and will likely remain this way for a few weeks. If you have not gotten in on any Big Ten Conference Bets for the 2023 season, now is the time to do so.

Here are the current Odds to win the Big Ten Conference:

Check out the Big Ten Conference winner odds on Bookmaker

Michigan Wolverines +175

The Big Ten moved to divisions before the 2014 season, and either the Wolverines or Ohio State have won the league 7 times. It’s to overlook these two teams. And since Michigan has topped the Buckeyes the last two seasons, it’s hard to think they cannot three-peat. The Wolverines have quarterback JJ McCarthy back, along with star running back Blake Corum. The Wolverines are stacked all over the field, so at +175, this seems like the best bet to make here.

Ohio State Buckeyes +200

There is never a question of whether this team has enough talent to win the Big Ten or not. Typically the question is – can they compete at a national scale? The biggest question for this team is – can they beat Michigan on November 25th? They have to go to Ann Arbor this season but have no doubt Ryan Day will have his team ready to go. Ohio State does not have to face Iowa this season but instead has an October 28th date on the road against the Wisconsin Badgers on their schedule.

Penn State Nittany Lions +650

Drew Allar is going to be a stud quarterback at Penn State. This guy has all the good, and many are comparing him to his College Football playing days of, Trace McSorley. Having one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and having a guy in tackle Olu Fashanu, along with a defense that can be matched by some of the best, can be enough to take the Big Ten title. If the Nittany Lions were in the West, this would be a no-brainer. You can grab Penn State at +650.

Wisconsin Badgers +700

There is a great chase for the Wisconsin Badgers to win the West Division, but finding a way to not only win the West but take down the Big Ten title game just does not seem likely. The Badgers are getting 7 to 1 odds to win this. New head coach Luke Fickell wants to provide he can win early, and he can win often. One of the biggest question marks for the Badgers – is quarterback Tanner Mordecai is the type of guy that can lead them all season to conference wins.

Iowa Hawkeyes +800

The Hawkeyes are a long shot. The next question is – do long shots happen out of the Big Ten? The answer to that is not likely. Like Wisconsin, the Hawkeyes can win the Big Ten West, and we know what that means… One win away from being Big Ten champions. Cade McNamara came over, along with Erick All came from Michigan and will start for Iowa. The offense seems to be improved, and their defense is almost always elite. They are a team to watch.

Others:

Minnesota Golden Gophers +1500

Illinois Fighting Illini +2000

Nebraka Cornhuskers +2000
Maryland Terrapins +1000
Michigan State Spartans +10000

Purdue Boilermakers +12500

Indiana Hoosiers +20000
Northwestern Wildcats +20000

Rutgers Scarlet Knights +20000

Best of luck with all your College Football bets for the 2023 season. We expect the Big Ten race to be a good one from start to finish! Remember – this is the final season for the Big Ten before the addition of UCLA and USC to the conference!

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Travelers Championship Preview

The dust from the U.S. Open has settled, and the PGA Tour schedule heads across the country to TPC at River Highlands in Cromwell, Connecticut for the 2023 Travelers Championship. The tournament is the second-most attended PGA Tour event annually, trailing only behind the WM Phoenix Open. Tournament play for this designated event begins on Thursday, June 22nd, and ends on Sunday, June 25th.

Check out the full Travelers Championship odds over on Bookmaker

Xander Schauffele (+1400) is the defending champion after defeating J.T. Poston and Sahith Theegala by two shots last season. Schauffele carded a four-day total of 261 (19-under par) to pick up his first of two victories in 2022. Xander will be back in action this week to defend his title after a T10 finish at last week’s U.S. Open.

The Field is Packed with Star Power

Typically following a major tournament players take the next few weeks off to recover. Not this week, as the Travelers in one of the PGA Tour’s designated events. With that designation, the field is packed with many of the top players in the world. 

Eight of the top ten players in the Official World Golf Rankings are expected to tee it up, along with U.S. Open winner Wyndham Clark (+5500). Scottie Scheffler (+600), the world no. 1, headlines the list that includes Jon Rahm (+1100), Rory McIlroy (+1200), Patrick Cantlay (+1100), and Viktor Hovland (+1800).

Past champions of the Travelers in the field this week joining Schauffele are Harris English (2021), Chez Reavie (2019), Russell Knox (2016), Kevin Streelman (2014), and two-time winner Stewart Cink (2008, 1997).

Low Scores Await at TPC at River Highlands

Although the course is a par-70, TPC at River Highlands has historically surrendered low scores to the world’s best golfers over the years. The layout plays under 7,000 yards and the winning score is typically in the high teens under par.

The club was founded in 1928 as the Middletown Golf Club and then Edgewood Country Club in 1934. Eventually, in the 1980s, the course was purchased by the PGA Tour and became part of the Tournament Players Club network.

Pete Dye redesigned the course in 1984 and Bobby Weed, with the consultation of tour pros Howard Twitty and Roger Maltbie, further altered the layout in 1989.

Jim Furyk holds the course record after firing a 58 in the final round of the 2016 tournament. The score was the lowest in PGA Tour tournament history.

Can Scheffler Keep it Going?

Scottie Scheffler might be winning as many tournaments as he would like to, but the run of high finishes this season is reaching absurdity. Scheffler has finished five straight events inside the top five, including a string of four consecutive T3s or better. 

This season, the 26-year-old has made the cut in 17 of 17 events he’s teed it up in and finished inside the top 25 in all but one of them. Scheffler has two wins on the year, securing a victory at the WM Phoenix Open and the PLAYERS Championship a month later. 

The biggest hurdle for Scheffler to overcome has been his putter. The world no. 1 ranks first in every major statistical category on the PGA Tour but sits 138th amongst his peers in Strokes Gained: Putting.

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2019 NHL Awards Picks & Predictions

2019 NHL AWARDS SHOW

It’s been a relaxing week since the end of the Stanley Cup Final where the St. Louis Blues lifted the championship trophy for the first time in their franchise history, ending the longest drought of any team in the NHL.

The past few days have seen a few intriguing trades announced and there should be plenty of fireworks left between now and the first round of the NHL Entry Draft on Friday, but after a six-month regular season and two grueling months of playoff action, we still have one piece of business to settle before the door officially closes on the 2018-19 NHL season. That’s the annual end-of-season NHL Awards Show which once again comes live from Las Vegas on Wednesday evening, June 19th.

Wagering on the prop bets for award winners over the years has been very profitable for myself but if these Futures tickets could be cashed at the All-Star break, I’d be doing even better. In the 2017-18 season, more than 150 writers and broadcasters in the Professional Hockey Writers Association (the PHWA), along with 2,000 fans, voted for their mid-season award winners for the first time since the 1968 season (list found here).

Among the notable winners, Nikita Kucherov was the panel’s mid-season selection for the Hart Trophy as league MVP, Victor Hedman the choice for the Norris Trophy as the league’s best all-around defenseman and Andrei Vasilevskiy as the best goaltender for the Vezina. It would have been a Tampa Bay clean sweep and it would have been for me, as well, with preseason selections of Kucherov at +4000, Hedman at +750 and Vasilevskiy for +2500. Quite the (almost) windfall.

Only Hedman would go on to cash a winner for us at the end of that season as Kucherov faded down the stretch and Vasilevskiy burned out due to injuries and a heavy workload. Fortunately, we picked up a nice number on Taylor Hall for the Hart before end of the season and still netted +11.0 units on the NHL Awards for the 2017-18 season.

This year, over the All-Star break in January, the more than 125 writers of the PHWA submitted their early ballots once again (found here) for a sneak peak into who they believe were the current frontrunners for 2018-19 hardware. And once again, I would have cashed another Hart (Kucherov +1500) and Vezina (John Gibson +850) winner if awards were won in good faith after just half a season.

Unfortunately, they’re not. Gibson would buckle under the immense pressure of being bombarded on a nightly basis in the Anaheim crease as the Ducks slid into irrelevancy, along with our Gibson ticket. Kucherov, however, stands to still earn us a sizeable win if he is awarded the Hart Trophy, as expected.

One thing to keep in mind for these NHL Awards is that the outcomes are already predetermined before the playoffs even begin. The PHWA, NHL Broadcaster’s Association and 31 NHL General Managers all submit their official votes upon the conclusion of the regular season mid-April – before the playoffs start. Many casual bettors fail to realize this and will place a wager on a trophy winner thinking playoff performance is considered in the result. It’s not. These are regular season awards only and it’s important to realize the votes are locked in before all the playoff heroics.

Let’s look at some of the more popular awards which will be given out and who I believe will take home the hardware and whether there’s still any worthwhile wagers still to be made. My preseason Futures for each individual award are included below but can also be found in this thread of tweets.

Let’s start with the biggest prize of the night, the Hart Memorial Trophy awarded to the league’s Most Valuable Player.

All odds courtesy of Bodog/Bovada as of time of writing. All stats below courtesy of hockeyreference.com and NHL.com

 

Nikita Kucherov (TB) 82 Games Played. 41 Goals (T-6th), 87 Assists (1st), 128 Points. Led NHL in scoring with the most points of any player since 1995-96 (Mario Lemieux, 161 and Jaromir Jagr, 149). Led league with 1.56 points per game, the most since 2012-13 (Sidney Crosby, 1.56). Factored in 40.1% of team’s goals.

Sidney Crosby (PIT) 79 Games Played. 35 Goals (T-21st), 65 Assists (7th), 100 Points. Tied for fifth in NHL scoring. Tied for fifth in league with 1.27 points per game. Factored in 36.9% of team’s goals.

Connor McDavid (EDM) 78 Games Played. 41 Goals (T-6th), 75 Assists (2nd), 116 Points. Finished second in NHL scoring. Finished second in league with 1.49 points per game. Factored in 50.7% of team’s goals, the top percentage of any player in the league.

 

Let’s be honest. The NHL MVP award should go to McDavid every year if we’re judging solely on pure talent, but that’s not the way it works and despite a huge snub from last year’s nominee list, McDavid was at least recognized for this season’s offensive accomplishments on a very poor Oilers team.

It’s also nice to see Crosby grace the nominees here, giving us the two greatest players over the last two generations up for the award (although Patrick Kane fans will carry the “snubbed” flag this season). Crosby hit the 100-point mark for the sixth time in his 14-year career, becoming just the sixth player in league history to record as many 100-point seasons, joining Wayne Gretzky (15 times), Mario Lemieux (10), Marcel Dionne (8), Mike Bossy (7) and Peter Stastny (7).

This year’s trophy, however, will go to Nikita Kucherov who recorded the most points we’ve seen from a player in nearly 25 years and set a single-season record for a Russian-born player with 128. He took over the scoring race lead way back on December 27 and never relinquished the lead and won by a dominating 12 points over McDavid in second place. Some will argue against Kucherov, saying the award is for the “player most valuable to his team” – and they’d be right. Kucherov recorded at least one point in 62 of 82 games he played, and his team went 54-5-3 when he found the scoreboard. And 8-11-1 when he didn’t. That’s value.

PREDICTION: Nikita Kucherov

WAGER: The recent surge of Nikita Kucherov to super stardom since the start of last season came as a surprise to most but he made my preseason list as the top choice for this award entering the 2017-18 season at a healthy +4000. He was the leader at the halfway point before faltering down the stretch to deny us a huge victory but that didn’t deter me from adding him again prior to this season. It will be our only preseason win this year but Kucherov at +1500 will still net us a healthy profit for our preseason player props. If you weren’t fortunate to grab a ticket on him earlier this season, it’s a steep price at -1100 now but one could argue there’s value still with the probability of him winning this award likely higher than the 91.6% the current line implies.

 

Andrei Vasilevskiy (TB) 53 Games Played (53 Started). 39-10-4 regular season record, led league with 39 wins. Goals-Against Average (GAA) of 2.40 (9th). Save Percentage of .925 (T-6th). 6 Shutouts (T-4th). Goals-Saved-Above-Average (GSAA) of 26.40 (2nd).

Ben Bishop (DAL) 46 Games Played (45 Started). 27-15-2 regular season record. GAA of 1.98 (2nd). Save Percentage of .934 (1st). 7 Shutouts (3rd). GSAA of 32.24 (1st).

Robin Lehner (NYI) 46 Games Played (43 Started). 25-13-5 regular season record. GAA of 2.13 (3rd). Save Percentage of .930 (2nd). 6 Shutouts (T-4th). GSAA of 26.24 (3rd).

 

It should be noted this is one award not voted upon by the PHWA, but rather the 31 NHL General Managers and they tend to value one thing above all else – wins. On the surface, Bishop’s stats are outstanding with the league’s best save percentage and second-best goals-against average. His under-the-surface numbers are even more impressive with the league’s top-rated GSAA and best 5-on-5 save percentage (.938) but those stats won’t hold much weight with most GMs.

Bishop will also be the sentimental favorite being the 32-year old posting career-high numbers and a nominee for the third time in his career but with just 27 wins to his credit and 45 games started, the voters for this award will be drawn to the magic number of 39 wins for Vasilevskiy.

There’s also more separation between Vasilevskiy’s numbers and his backup Louis Domingue than what there is for Bishop and Anton Khudobin and Lehner with Thomas Greiss. That’s a surface-level observation but unfortunately that’s about as deep as these GMs go.

PREDICTION: Andrei Vasilevskiy

WAGER: If I was given a vote for this award, I’d ultimately have to go with Ben Bishop, but we have to keep in mind who the real voters are here. The majority of the 31 GMs are going to see 39 wins vs. 27 and 25 and decide Vasilevskiy is a runaway winner. At +240, there’s just not enough value for me to take a chance that these team leaders have evolved yet in the way they vote. I also had a team contact all but guarantee me Vasilevskiy wins this, which is enough to keep me off the underdog.

Our preseason wagers were set up nicely and looking like we could have a one-two finish around the mid-point of the season, but with Anaheim floundering over the second half and the workload wearing down John Gibson and Frederik Andersen of the Leafs, both faded out of contention. Our longshot on Antti Raanta had promise but an early injury quickly ended that dream. Vasilevskiy is probably worth a small wager here at -320 if you’re looking to get involved but I’m going to pass and just eat the 2.5-unit loss.

 

Mark Giordano (CGY) 78 Games Played. 17 Goals, 57 Assists, 74 Points. Finished second among NHL defensemen in scoring. League-high +39 rating.

Brent Burns (SJ) 82 Games Played. 16 Goals, 67 Assists, 83 Points. Led all NHL defensemen in scoring and led his team in scoring. Third defenseman in NHL history to lead his team in scoring for three consecutive seasons.

Victor Hedman (TB) 70 Games Played. 12 Goals, 42 Assists, 54 Points. Finished 11th among NHL defensemen in scoring. Looking to become first back-to-back winner since Nicklas Lidstrom won three straight awards from 2005-06 to 2007-08.

 

The award for the league’s best defenseman often lands in the hands of the best offensive player but the definition of the award itself should come into play this year. The best “all-round ability” is what separates Giordano from Burns.

While Burns would often be placed in offensive-friendly situations, starting in the offensive zone 63.4% of the time (at even-strength), Giordano would be relied upon to face the opponent’s top line night-in and night-out. Tasked as a shutdown defender and starting just 48.3% of zone starts in the offensive end, Giordano’s complete 200-foot game netted him just nine points less than Burns, still good for third in defensemen goals and second in overall points. Giordano’s league-best plus-39 rating will also be a high selling point for voters who still value outdated basic stats like that.

Hedman gets a surprising nomination this season after winning the award last year. His 54 points were good for just 11th overall in defensemen scoring and his Point Shares contribution to his team was just the eighth-best among blueliners, behind honorable mentions John Carlson and Kris Letang. When you consider Hedman posted solid numbers across the board while mostly paired with Dan Girardi though, it’s hard to not just hand him the award again and thank him for his service.

PREDICTION: Mark Giordano

WAGER: After cashing a +750 winner last season on Hedman, injuries derailed our top hopeful this year after an outstanding Norris-worthy start from John Klingberg. A 56-point season from Roman Josi wasn’t enough to garner a nomination, despite the third-best defensive rating in the league at the position, behind only teammate Matthias Ekholm and Giordano. The winner here is going to be Giordano but at -1000 and only small limits available, there’s not much we can do. Like Kucherov and the Hart Trophy, feel free to throw a few bucks down for a free lunch but overall, I’ll just eat the 1.5-unit loss on our Norris preseason wagers.

 

Elias Pettersson (VAN) 71 Games Played. 28 Goals, 38 Assists, 66 Points. Led all rookies in scoring. Led Vancouver in goals, assists and total points in just 71 games played. Set Canucks rookie record for points (Pavel Bure, 60).

Jordan Binnington (STL) 32 Games Played (30 Started). 24-5-1 regular season record. Blues rookie records for wins and shutouts (5). Led all NHL goaltenders with 1.89 GAA.

Rasmus Dahlin (BUF) 82 Games Played. 9 Goals, 35 Assists, 44 Points. Led all rookie defensemen in assists and total points. Third in overall rookie scoring. Second-most points in NHL history for a defenseman before the age of 19 (Phil Housley, 57).

 

It was an incredible season in the NHL with multiple ubertalented rookies, showing us the future of the league is in great hands. The Vancouver Canucks Elias Pettersson was the one who clearly stood above everyone though with 66 points in 71 games, 21 more points than Brady Tkachuk’s 45 points. Pettersson also led his own team in goals, assists and points, improving the Canucks eight points in the standings from the year prior, despite playing 11 games less than second-leading scorer Bo Horvat.

The 20-year old showed he is a true game-breaker and his impact became clear once opponents began to specifically game plan around stopping him – and he still soared. The only thing able to slow Pettersson down was a knee injury in January and although he wasn’t quite the same player upon returning for the rest of the season, he still put up 24 points over his final 33 games, a 0.73 points per game rate which still eclipsed Tkachuk’s next-best rate of 0.63 ppg.

His biggest challenger is St. Louis Blues goaltender and new Stanley Cup winner, Jordan Binnington. The 25-year old goaltender had one hell of a run starting with a shutout in his very first start and rescuing his team from last place in the overall standings and carrying them all the way to a third-place finish in the Central Division.

Unfortunately for Binnington, voters locked in their choice upon the conclusion of the regular season so don’t have the influence of the playoff run to alter their view, or the added time to gain perspective on just how great the impact Binnington’s play really had on the Blues season. And that’s unfortunate, since looking back at it now, Binnington’s impact for his team was arguably greater than Pettersson’s on his. Or, at the very least, significantly closer than the betting odds suggest.

Rasmus Dahlin gets buried a bit here in a distant third but should by no means go overlooked. He’s a special talent who had an unbelievable year and when you score more points than the great Bobby Orr did before the age of 19, Buffalo Sabres fans have every reason to pump the tires of their new beloved stud.

PREDICTION: Elias Pettersson

WAGER: This is the one category which has seen a significant price change since odds opened, with Pettersson dropping from -7500 to the current -2000 number. With low limits, even a little public money can cause the swing, so I wouldn’t read much into it. A lot of public money betting into these props likely don’t even realize the votes were cast before the start of the playoffs, with casual bettors thinking Binnington should win this because of his playoff run. In hindsight, it’s a valid point and if voters could vote now, I’d argue the newly-crowned Stanley Cup winner would warrant more attention. Fortunately for Canucks fans, these awards are for regular season only and votes were locked in back in April, so Pettersson gets the decisive win here.

 

Jon Cooper (TB) Cooper guided Tampa Bay to their first Presidents’ Trophy in franchise history with a record-setting season of 62 wins and 128 points. They finished 21 points better than the second-best team (Boston Bruins and Calgary Flames, 107 points each), the largest gap since the 1995-96 Detroit Red Wings (27 points) and tied that same Detroit team for the most wins in NHL history in a single season. They were the first team in league history to record at least 30 wins at home and on the road. Lightning finished with 128 points and won the Atlantic Division, 13 more points than their 2017-18 total which also won the division crown.

Barry Trotz (NYI) Led New York to fifth overall in the NHL with 103 points, the team’s best single-season since they recorded 104 points in 1983-84. Helped transform the defense which gave up a league-high 293 goals in the 2017-18 season to a league-low 191 goals this season, only the second team in league history to record such a feat (1918-19 Ottawa Senators). Islanders finished with 103 points and second in the Metropolitan Division, 23 more than their 2017-18 total and 11th place finish in the Eastern Conference.

Craig Berube (STL) Promoted from associate coach to head coach on November 19 after the Blues started 7-9-3. The team finished 38-19-6 under Berube, including 30-10-5 after January 2 when St. Louis was in last place overall in the NHL standings. Blues finished with 99 points and third in the Central Division, 5 more than their 2017-18 total and ninth place finish in the Western Conference.

 

The Jack Adams Award for the best coach of the year is another one not voted on by the PHWA, but rather by the NHL Broadcaster’s Association. The voters here are often enamored by a coach who takes a non-playoff team the year prior and sees a significant standings increase.

Gerard Gallant won it last year for taking the expansion Vegas Golden Knights all the way to a Pacific Division crown in their inaugural season. John Tortorella won it two years ago for taking the Columbus Blue Jackets from a 76-point, 15th place Eastern Conference finish to a 108-point, third place division finish. The majority of winners in this category share similar stories.

Occasionally though, the Broadcaster’s Association rewards an exceptional season for an already top team. Barry Trotz won this award three years ago when he took his 101-point Washington Capitals who finished second in the Metropolitan Division the year prior, to a 120-point Presidents’ Trophy.

Trotz is up for nomination again this year with one of the classic Cinderella stories taking the Islanders from a non-playoff team to a 103-point, second place finish in the Metro and many feel he’s the type of story this category typically loves.

That’d be true. In fact, there were a number of great coaching stories around the NHL this season, including honorable mentions to Bill Peters in Calgary and Rod Brind’Amour in Carolina, along with fellow nominee Craig Berube who took the Blues from the depths of Hell to securing a playoff spot.

Like Trotz’s win in 2016 though, we have another Presidents’ Trophy coach nominated with Tampa Bay’s Jon Cooper who had an already great team and took them to legendary status. The Lightning weren’t just the top team in the league this season, they were one of the greatest regular season teams in the history of the NHL and for that, I believe Cooper will be recognized.

PREDICTION: Jon Cooper

WAGER: Jon Cooper (-105) 1 UNIT. In a season where several coaches took their team from a bottom-feeder to a respectable playoff team, Cooper’s historic season in Tampa Bay stands out and should garner enough votes to rise above a split between Trotz and Berube who have similar stories.

 

— END 2019 NHL AWARDS —

2018-19 NHL Playoffs St. Louis Blues vs. Boston Bruins Stanley Cup Final Preview

After a five day break, the NHL is set to resume Monday evening to culminate this incredible postseason with the start of the 2019 Stanley Cup Final between the Western Conference Champion St. Louis Blues and Eastern Conference Champion Boston Bruins. This year’s championship final is being pegged as the rematch nearly 50 years in the making after the teams’ last Cup Finals showdown way back in 1970. It also happens to be the last time St. Louis made it to the Stanley Cup Final. The league only owned 12 clubs back then but there’s a few fun similarities between the then and now.

The 1970 Bruins also finished second overall in the six-team East Division and were led by future Hall of Famers Phil Esposito and John Bucyk. The iconic center and left wing were complimented by a strong right winger in John McKenzie who finished that season second in scoring among forwards on the team.

Bruins fans could draw comparisons to this year’s iconic duo of Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand who are complimented by this year’s second-leading team scorer, right-wing David Pastrnak.

That 1970 team was loaded in talent from top-to-bottom, including an outstanding goaltender in future Hall of Famer Gerry Cheevers and the immortal Bobby Orr on the blueline. Orr won the Art Ross Trophy that year as the league’s top scorer with an unbelievable 120 points in 76 games, along with taking home the Hart, Norris and Conn Smythe Trophies.

You’ve no doubt seen this photo throughout your life (and especially a lot this past week) of Orr scoring the overtime Stanley Cup-winning goal where he dove through the air. One of the most memorable moments ever, “The Goal” was even enshrined in legend with a bronze statue of the diving Orr outside TD Garden in 2010 (moved to nearby Portal Park just off the arena’s eastern border in 2016 during construction outside the western entrance). Interesting tidbit – the creator of said statue is Harry Weber, a St. Louis native.

The 1970 Blues were a team with balanced scoring led by their defense and goaltending, allowing the second fewest goals in the league. They were the top squad in the West Division but the only team of the six to finish above .500 and were just sixth overall in the 12-team league.

Of course, it would be unfair to compare rookie Jordan Binnington to future Hall of Famers Jacques Plante and Glenn Hall who led the way in net back then, but the 2019 Blues would not be here without the Calder-nominated rookie’s play between the pipes.

The Bruins would sweep the Blues that year in four straight to win their fourth-ever Stanley Cup at the time, ending the 1970 postseason on a 10-game win streak after also sweeping their semi-final round. As it was back then, Boston is the betting favorite this year as well having won seven straight games, not tasting defeat since Game 3 of the Second Round at Columbus. One could look up-and-down this year’s Bruins roster and also claim it’s loaded with talent against a Blues team with balanced scoring and led by a star goaltender.

Could history repeat itself, or will the city of St. Louis rise up to bring the franchise their first-ever Stanley Cup Championship? Let’s take a look.

 

[Author’s Note: I wanted to give special thanks to Eric Poole for providing permission to use the beautiful graphic he created of the Blues-Bruins Stanley Cup matchup which you see in the upper right corner. Those who have been to my Twitter page have seen my sweet custom profile pic which he also created for me. You can find more of Eric’s incredible artwork at his Twitter, @Epoole88]

 

STANLEY CUP FINAL

The Eastern Conference only plays teams from the West twice a year, but both of this season’s meetings between the Blues and Bruins came in the new year after rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington had joined the team. As usual though, the regular season head-to-head meetings don’t give us much to go on and shouldn’t carry much weight when breaking down this matchup.

In the first meeting on January 17, Boston won 5-2 but it was Jake Allen in net for St. Louis who were also without Robert Thomas, Tyler Bozak and Alex Steen, so throw that one out.

The February 23 matchup which the Blues won 2-1 in a shootout is closer to what the teams look like now, although Boston was still without David Pastrnak and the Blues minus David Perron and Brayden Schenn. Both teams were scorching at the time, similar to now, with Boston having extended their overall points streak to 13 games and St. Louis just one game removed from a club-record 11-game winning streak. Binnington and Tuukka Rask were both fantastic in that one and will be key factors again in this Stanley Cup Final.

It’s no fluke we’re looking at the Blues and Bruins as the last two teams standing. This championship matchup features two of the hottest teams over the second half of the season with the Blues recording a 29-9-5 record from the time Binnington took over the crease on January 7, improving the team from dead last in the West at that time to within a whisker of the Central Division title.

The Bruins dealt with several impact injuries early in the season but still managed to stay near the top of the overall standings and started to put it all together down the stretch to finish second in the Atlantic Division, going 25-10-5 from that January 7 date to the end of the regular season. Only the record-setting Tampa Bay Lightning were hotter over the second half than the St. Louis and Boston.

One of the biggest questions entering the Final is how the long layoff will affect these teams, particularly the Bruins who will have had 10 full days off (the Blues will have had five). Rest can be a weapon but both teams will have had ample time for recovery, so is having too much time off a detriment?

Recent NHL history would suggest that’s a possibility with the more rested team entering the Stanley Cup Final having lost the last six years. You’ll have heard (or will hear) that trend at some point but as with any trend it should be looked at closer and broken down. You’ll notice in the chart below the number of days each side has had off entering the Final over those six years.

The average number of days off for the “more rested” team is 4.2 with the “less rested” getting just 2.5 days off between the Conference Championship and the start of the Stanley Cup. With four of the six years having just a one day difference, there likely isn’t much to take from this other than pure coincidence. It also doesn’t pay relevance to the situation presented this year. Boston has 10 days off which is unheard off in the modern era. You have to go all the way back to the 2003 Playoffs to find the last team who had as many days off before the Cup Final when the team known as the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim also had 10 full days off after sweeping the Minnesota Wild. They played (and lost) to the New Jersey Devils in a thrilling seven games who had just three days off.

It’s hard to say how the long layoff will affect Boston but it should be noted even though St. Louis enters as the “less rested” team this year, they will have had more days off (five) than all but one of the Finals participants over the last six years. Ultimately, “rest” entering this year’s Stanley Cup shouldn’t be a focal point.

So, what should be? Let’s break down the important areas and see who holds the edge.

 

The Boston Bruins hold the number one ranked total offense in the 2019 Playoffs at 3.26 Goals Scored Per 60 Minutes but life hasn’t come as easy at 5-on-5. The Bruins rank just sixth at a full goal lower with the rest of the offensive categories just average.

That’s a bit surprising as Boston has seemingly been rolling four scoring lines with contributions throughout the lineup. The top line of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak have led the way with 30.8% (12 of 39) of the playoff 5-on-5 goals scored but they’ve been quiet at times and needed help. David Krejci has stepped up with four goals and 11 of his 14 points while 5-on-5 to lead the second line.

It’s been trade deadline acquisition Charlie Coyle though centering the third line who has helped created a balanced attack. He has as many 5-on-5 goals as Marchand and Pastrnak (five) and nine of his 12 points in 17 games. His linemate Marcus Johansson, another deadline pick-up, has also been key with eight of his nine points 5-on-5 in just 15 games.

The fourth line has also been incredibly effective chipping in seven goals from the combination of Sean Kuraly, Joakim Nordstrom, Chris Wagner and Noel Acciari. The loss of Wagner to injury for the rest of the playoffs hurts but Acciari has been able to step in without issue and has a shorthanded goal to his credit.

One area Boston could use more production from is Jake DeBrusk. After scoring six goals in 12 playoff games a year ago and 27 in 68 regular season games this year, the sophomore has just three in his 17 games this postseason, with one of those coming on the powerplay.

The Bruins powerplay success has somewhat masked the inefficiencies of their 5-on-5 offense but this is still a dangerous balanced group with scoring over four lines and who are (relatively) healthy, something the Blues haven’t had to deal with yet in this playoff run.

St. Louis has used a punishing forecheck and their strong cycle game of moving the puck around the perimeter to consistently apply pressure and generate offense here in the playoffs. After averaging just 1.7 goals per game 5-on-5 in the first round against Winnipeg and 2.1 per game in round two versus Dallas, the Blues exploded in the Conference Final with 2.7 per game against San Jose.

That jumped them to number one in the postseason for 5-on-5 goal scoring, although their Expected Goals only increased from 2.10 to 2.14 overall. St. Louis took advantage of a worn down Sharks lineup riddled with key injuries, so they may find offense not as easy to come by this series against a Bruins team whose strength is disrupting the cycle.

Leading the way has been top-line winger Jaden Schwartz who has 12 goals this postseason, one more than his entire regular season total and just one off the franchise mark held by Brett Hull in the 1990 playoffs. He’s been the driving force of the offense with 10 of those coming 5-on-5 but it’s been a balanced attack after that. The Blues have no one else near Schwartz’s goal production but do have 10 skaters with 2-4 goals, including Vladimir Tarasenko who awoke last round.

After a quiet opening two rounds with just two points against the Jets and three versus Dallas, Tarasenko recorded points in all six Conference Final games, eight in total with five of those coming 5-on-5. That production will have to continue for the Blues to stay in this series.

Tyler Bozak and Pat Maroon have combined for seven goals at even-strength to lead a strong third line, despite the drop-off from linemate Robert Thomas. The rookie had his coming out party last round against the Stars with four points, including two key assists in Game 7, but was held to just one assist against the Sharks. Thomas has been dealing with an injury and hasn’t been skating between games, so having a few days off could benefit him.

It’s been the emergence of the fourth line though which has also allowed St. Louis to confidently roll four attacking lines. Head coach Craig Berube has so much confidence in Oskar Sundqvist, Ivan Barbashev and Alex Steen, he started the trio in five of the six games against San Jose and they helped set the tone early. They’ve chipped in eight goals 5-on-5 and will again be a key with their relentless forecheck.

So, we have two offenses here with four strong attacking lines and aggressive forechecks. Expect to see a lot of heavy hits from both sides looking to set the tone early. The Blues may own the 5-on-5 playoff goal scoring lead (thanks to preying on San Jose goaltender Martin Jones and a worn down Sharks team) but it’s the Bruins who hold the slight edge everywhere else, at least statistically. The fourth lines will be key for each team again, but it may be the Boston third line with Coyle and Johansson who tip the scales in the Bruins favor. And, of course, the Bruins top line will always be the best one when on the ice. Give Boston the edge in 5-on-5 offense.

 

The Blues have been known throughout these playoffs for their suffocating defense, but there’s been times where they’ve been hemmed in their own zone for long stretches. It’s been a bend-but-don’t-break mentality and to this point it’s worked.

Alex Pietrangelo has led the way offensively with 13 points but it’s Colton Parayko who has been tasked with shutting down the opposition’s best and he did a phenomenal job against Logan Couture late in the series against San Jose. He’ll have his hands full this round as Boston’s depth scoring will make it difficult to cover everyone.

The third pair of Carl Gunnarsson and Robert Bortuzzo will need to step up and they could really use Vince Dunn back. Dunn hasn’t played since taking a puck in the mouth early in Game 3 last round which was believed to have caused concussion symptoms along with serious damage. He skated with the team on Saturday for the first time since the incident and will travel for Game 1. Saturday’s optional skate saw no contact though and Sunday’s practice saw him skating as an extra, so it’s not expected he’ll be ready early in the series.

The Bruins already faced an elite defense against Carolina last round and a similar-to-the-Blues defense against Columbus in round two, so the challenge presented by St. Louis should be familiar. It’s the Bruins backend though who don’t get enough credit with Charlie McAvoy, Torey Krug and an underrated Matt Grzelcyk. A 41-year old Zdeno Chara continues to lose a step but his hulking presence is still effective in other ways and rookie Connor Clifton has held his own on the third pair in place of an injured Kevan Miller. Unfortunately, Miller suffered a recent setback and has officially been shut down for the remainder of the playoffs.

Numbers-wise, Boston gets the 5-on-5 edge across the board but there’s a case to be made for the Blues with the better overall playoff numbers. The Bruins have owned the statistically top-ranked defense all year and even though the numbers have slipped a bit here in the postseason, they’ve still given up the second fewest goals thanks to the play of Tuukka Rask in net.

St. Louis are right behind though with the fourth-fewest 5-on-5 goals allowed and they’ve done an excellent job at suppressing shots. It will be crucial for St. Louis to continue limiting shot attempts which may not be as easy against Boston with their ability to roll four scoring lines.

In the end, these are two outstanding bluelines. With playoff numbers and current form now holding as much importance as the regular season, it’s fair to say the category of defense is close to even.

 

This category begins and ends with the Boston powerplay which has produced historic numbers to this point. They’ve scored 17 goals in 17 games and connected at a 34% clip (17-for-50). They’ve scored at a rate of 12.78 goals per 60 minutes, comfortably the number one rank. But just how good has the Boston PP been this postseason?

The Tampa Bay Lightning were the top powerplay unit in the regular season, producing a goal 28.24% of the time. They scored at a rate of 10.89 goals per 60, almost a full goal above Boston’s second-ranked 9.95, which is the most productive powerplay since at least the 2006-2007 season (the tracking for this category at NaturalStatTrick.com only goes back to 2007-08). The Lightning’s regular season dominance hasn’t been seen in the modern era – and Boston’s playoff rate of 12.78 eclipses them by nearly two full goals per 60. The only other level of postseason dominance I could find on a historic scale was the 1980-81 New York Islanders who connected 37.8% on their powerplay – the only team in history to score at a higher percent through 17 playoff games.

How hot is the Boston powerplay this postseason? Think center of the sun or center of a nuclear explosion hot. Pure fire. They’ve come at opportune times, as well, often early in games or when the game was close. No garbage time add-ons here and other than Tuukka Rask, the powerplay is the number one reason the Bruins escaped Toronto and are standing here now. And if it continues at this rate, it will be the reason why the world outside of Boston will have to gag again when another parade is scheduled later in June.

So, can the Blues be the team to finally slow it down? Not likely. The St. Louis penalty kill was the top ranked unit over the final 25 games of the regular season, but they allowed a high number of shots and scoring chances, suggesting they had some luck involved and a quality goaltender in Binnington coming up big. Here in the playoffs, those numbers are worse. They’ve bled scoring chances against when a man down and have allowed 8.15 goals per 60, the second-worst rate of any team making it past the first round (only Carolina was worse after already feeling the Bruins’ wrath). It doesn’t help that Binnington has really struggled to stop shots from the High Danger area and if he doesn’t find a way to stand on his head, expect to see multiple Boston powerplay goals again this series.

The one thing in the Blues favor is their penchant for discipline. Staying out of the box has been a huge strength and they’ll need to muster every bit of self-control against the worm known as Marchand and his agitating ways. St. Louis has a playoff-leading +21 penalty differential which is a whooping +15 more than the next team (Boston is 8th at +1).

As you can see in the chart below, the Blues have held a sizable advantage in powerplay time each round, but they’ve still allowed nine goals against. If they don’t find a way to improve this round – or worse, the penalty differential is closer to even – it could be their undoing in the end.

This figures to be a hard-hitting series with plenty of new aggression built by the end of Game 2 or 3, so staying out of the box this round will be St. Louis’ biggest challenge yet.

 

The key stats in this series may have nothing to do with the Key Stats in the end. Both St. Louis and Boston have been average at generating offense off the rush and shooting from the slot, producing almost even numbers with a slight edge to the Bruins.

Where the difference lies is in the defending of these areas, although to be fair this is still close. The Blues have had trouble early in each series slowing down their opponent’s attack off the rush but have done a remarkable job of tightening things up as each round progressed. Berube and his staff should be credited for their in-series adjustments, but Bruce Cassidy is proving to be a remarkable hockey mind himself and the Bruins have also been successful in the subtle changes they’ve made through each round. The ability to adapt and conquer is a major reason why both these teams have made it this far and will make the tracking of Slot Shots and Rush Scoring Chances fun to watch as this series progresses.

 

Both the Blues and Bruins wouldn’t be here without the heroics of Jordan Binnington and Tuukka Rask. Binnington, more so with his stellar play in the second half of the regular season, and Rask with his Conn Smythe-worthy performance thus far here in the postseason.

Although Binnington has set a Blues franchise-record for playoff wins in a single season with 12 now, he hasn’t been able to duplicate his Calder-nominated stats from the 32 regular season games he played, sitting in the lower half of playoff goaltenders in the 5-on-5 categories above. He’s also been inconsistent series-to-series, with an excellent middle round against Dallas between two subpar performances against Winnipeg and San Jose, as you can see in the chart below.

One thing we can say has been consistent about the rookie though is much like the team in front of him, Binnington has increased his strength as each series has progressed, particularly the first and third rounds where his overall numbers appear meek. Despite underwhelming numbers early versus Winnipeg and San Jose, he was very Rask-esque later in each series, as you can see in the chart below.

Boston had better get to the rookie early because they may not get much past him if the series runs deep.

One thing which may help the Bruins is their familiarity of Binnington already (this may be a moot point, but I found it interesting and worth sharing). Although they’ve only faced him once in the regular season, Binnington has roots in the organization as he played 28 games with the Providence Bruins farm team in the AHL last season, the team Cassidy was with for eight seasons (3 as an assistant coach and 5 as the head coach) before being promoted to Boston in 2016. You can bet he’s been in the ear of his former staff and current head coach Jay Leach this past week. Binnington has obviously improved a ton just over the past year, but you never know what coaches may pick up on.

In regard to Tuukka Rask, what can you say? The man has been a machine this postseason with out of this world numbers. His 5-on-5 save percentage of .946 ranks him third this postseason but it’s incredibly impressive over the span of 17 games, whereas Curtis McElhinney’s .957 and Mike Smith’s .947 were both produced over just five games each. The next closest with at least 10 games played was Colorado’s Philipp Grubauer with his .932 mark.

As you can note in the first chart above, Rask has also improved each round, only getting stronger as the grind of the playoffs has wore on. His High Danger save percentage, especially, is through the roof exceptional. It’s also crazy that he didn’t allow a single goal from the HD area the entire four games against Carolina (you can note though he did only face 11 HD shots in total that series. Binnington was also perfect in Games 4-6 vs. San Jose where he stopped all 12 HD shots).

About the only concern facing Rask is the long layoff. Whereas I don’t believe the layoff will have a serious effect favoring one team or the other overall, this is the one area where it could be significant. I’m sure even the most die-hard Boston fan would agree that Rask has been playing over his head during this playoff run but a hot streak can be sustained over a short time frame such as the two-month race to the Stanley Cup. Throwing a ten day break into the mix isn’t ideal for a goalie on a true heater.

Will the layoff cool off Tuukka, or will he be able to pick up where he left off? His regular season numbers won’t blow you away and if Rask regresses even a little, the underdog Blues could steal this series.

 

FINAL WORD: Let me preface this by saying, I really hope I’m wrong in my analysis of this series. Other than Tampa Bay, the Bruins were the one team I didn’t want to see here in the Final for the sake of our Stanley Cup Futures. There was a good chance we’d have a dog from the West make it through and now we have to hope St. Louis can finish the job Toronto and Carolina couldn’t complete.

I don’t believe that will happen though as Boston is just a bit stronger in every area and a lot stronger thanks to their unreal powerplay. This is going to be the most physical team the Blues have played yet and while they can no doubt handle themselves in a slug-it-out tilt, I don’t see them being able to stay out of the box or hold their usual significant edge in penalty differential. And ultimately, the man advantage will likely be the difference again in bringing the Bruins their first championship since 2011. Again, I really hope I’m wrong, or at the very least the Blues are able to get a series lead early. Their best chance should be in Game 1 with both teams coming off the long break and maybe Tuukka Rask looks a bit more human to begin.

When breaking down a matchup like this, one should look at what needs to happen for both sides to win and I feel there’s a lot more concrete answers on the Boston side with a lot of “IF this happens…” for St. Louis.

That being said, we haven’t seen a layoff this long between the Conference Finals and Stanley Cup in the modern era, so there’s going to be a degree of uncertainty around everything. I will say, the longer this series goes, the more I favor St. Louis. If the Bruins don’t finish this in four or five games, they may not finish it at all. The official guess is Boston is the better team and ends it in 5, but if it gets to Game 6, the Blues in 7 could become reality.

SERIES PICK: BOSTON IN 5

SERIES WAGER: NONE (Boston opened in the -165/-170 range for the series price at most shops and was bet down the first few days to the -150/-155 range, but has been brought back up as of Sunday evening to the current -160/-165 number. This is right at where I feel the number should be, so I don’t see any value in grabbing either side to start. As we’ve done throughout these playoffs, we’ll analyze game-to-game and look at opportune spots to jump in at a better number)

FUTURES WAGER: NONE (Obviously the Futures market is now closed with just the one series remaining and any hedging against our current tickets would be just on the series price. It’s going to be a profitable season for all of our Futures, regardless of what happens in the Final, but we do have one Cup Futures ticket still on St. Louis at about 15-1 (+3061 for a half-unit) which could make this an incredible season overall. If somehow a Blues Cup Futures ticket is all you’ve held this season, I’d certainly look at hedging with a bet on Boston pre-series to lock in some profit, but if you’ve been following all my wagers here since the preseason you’ll know we don’t hold a lot of remaining equity. I’ll have an update on where we stand on all of this season’s Futures in the daily report which continues before Game 1 on Monday. For now, we stand pat on the Blues ticket and hope like hell they grab a series lead or at least take a split back to St. Louis at which time we’ll re-assess.)

2018-19 NHL Playoffs St. Louis Blues vs. San Jose Sharks Western Conference Final Preview

The Western Conference Final features two teams who have held high expectations on this stage before just to see gut-wrenching heartache end their season time and time again. Over the past decade, both the St. Louis Blues and San Jose Sharks have been considered contenders for hockey’s ultimate prize, yet neither team has ever been able to fulfill their destiny and the two franchises share a combined zero Stanley Cups to their name.

For St. Louis, they advanced to the Cup Final in each of their first three years of existence from 1968 to 1970 but haven’t been back since. San Jose’s only trip to the Finals in their 27 seasons was in 2016 when they beat this very team in the Western Final but lost the championship to Sidney Crosby’s Pittsburgh Penguins in six games. For one of these teams, they’ll have the rare chance to make history once again while the other will add another season of unmet expectations and heartbreak.

(Check out the Eastern Conference Final here)

 

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINAL

 

Sometimes, the best team doesn’t always win. We could maybe have said that about the San Jose Sharks after their opening round series win over the Vegas Golden Knights where they were outplayed 5-on-5 and gave up eight powerplay goals. They appeared to be exiting the postseason early but staged one of the greatest comebacks in sports history when they erased a 3-0 deficit late in the third period of Game 7 with four powerplay goals on a controversial five-minute major penalty call.

We could maybe have said that again after another seven game series win over the Colorado Avalanche where they were arguably the second best team statistically but again benefitted from controversy after an apparent game-tying goal in the second period of Game 7 was overturned for a subjective offside call.

And it’s possible we may say it again after the Western Conference Final.

Many would say the Sharks are fortunate to be here and while there’s an argument to be made there, with each passing game it continues to feel more and more as if San Jose is destined to win their first-ever Stanley Cup for not only the franchise, but for the legendary Joe Thornton.

The St. Louis Blues could also lay claim to be the second best team in each of their two series after losing the Expected Goals battle to both the Winnipeg Jets in round one and the Dallas Stars in round two. As has been the case all through the season though, the Blues have been an incredible comeback team under the guidance of head coach Craig Berube and his ability to make the correct adjustments. After dropping games 3 and 4 to Winnipeg and appearing to be in trouble, the Blues made the right adjustments to slow down the Jets attack and win the final two games of the series. The Stars also looked to have the upper hand after consecutive wins in games 4 and 5 but again Berube made the proper adjustments and used a suffocating defense to shut down the Stars attack and take the final two games of the series.

The Sharks and Blues are an interesting matchup in that we have two teams who play a similar style, and each dispatched a team in the previous round who played the same way. Dallas and Colorado were both quick strike teams who attacked off the rush and the Blues and Sharks had to adjust to slow them down. To their credit, they both did an excellent job in doing so. In this round, we have two teams who prefer a more methodical approach to generating offense with their strong cycle game but are certainly capable of having their defense jump into a play to create scoring opportunities.

In head-to-head meetings this year, much like the Eastern Conference Final two of the three regular season meetings were early in the season and should be discarded. And even the third meeting in March which saw San Jose win in overtime doesn’t carry relevance. That final meeting saw Jake Allen in net for St. Louis who were without Vladimir Tarasenko, David Perron and Carl Gunnarsson, while the Sharks were minus Erik Karlsson and Evander Kane. In fact, San Jose has never even seen Jordan Binnington. It’s usually wise – but in this case even more – to completely disregard the regular season meetings.

 

For two teams who utilized a slow-it-down clog the neutral zone game plan last round, the top offensive stars on each side have been leading the way. This series will feature the three leading goal scorers in the postseason with San Jose’s Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl tied for the lead with nine goals and St. Louis’ Jaden Schwartz third with eight.

Both teams have also seen big offensive contributions from their blueline with Brent Burns tied for second in playoff scoring with 14 points and Erik Karlsson with 12 for the Sharks and Alex Pietrangelo tied for the Blues scoring lead with 11 points.

Last round, both teams were forced to adapt to their opponents faster attack and slow things down. Here, we have two teams with similar styles, so we may see them willing to open things up more in a back-and-forth style, at least to start the series.

San Jose and St. Louis are both capable of putting the puck in the net with their top-end stars, but the Sharks have the better arsenal of depth scorers with seven players with at least three goals and five players with 10 or more points this postseason. The Blues have played one less game but have just four players with three or more goals and just Schwartz and Pietrangelo have hit the 10-point mark with Ryan O’Reilly next at nine.

It’s not a large advantage, but it’s enough to give San Jose the edge in the offensive category.

 

The two defenses here have seen outstanding underlying numbers all season with little to separate them other than the actual goals, and that can be attributed to the difference in each team’s goaltending. The Sharks were near the bottom of the league during the season in goals allowed thanks to the tandem of Martin Jones and Aaron Dell who both had terrible regular seasons. The defense itself was elite with Marc-Edouard Vlasic leading the way as one of the best shutdown defenders in the league and despite some issues during the season, he’s back on his game now and will make life difficult for Jaden Schwartz. Here in the playoffs, the numbers have slipped across all categories which can partially be due to playing two powerful offenses in Vegas and Colorado, but the defense as a whole hasn’t been as sharp as in the regular season.

The Blues have steadily improved their defense throughout the season and it’s carried into the playoffs as they made excellent in-series adjustments to suffocate the Jets and Stars late in each series. With Pietrangelo and Colton Parayko leading the way, the team employs no other outstanding individual but four interchangeable guys who can play anywhere in the lineup with Vince Dunn, Carl Gunnarsson, Jay Bouwmeester and Joel Edmundson (although I personally think Dunn is outstanding and underrated).

Both defenses are also strong at contributing on the offensive end as the Blues led all teams in goals from defensemen during the season and the Sharks of course countering with Burns and Karlsson. I expect we’ll see the defense be just as important on the offensive end this series and why scoring could be higher to begin with both teams making the necessary adjustments as the series wears on and games becoming tighter.

Two elite units here when they’re at the top of their game but based on current form this past month, the Blues get the edge in the defensive category.

 

The San Jose powerplay has been excellent all season but they’ve been relentless here in the playoffs and with the Blues holding the defensive edge 5-on-5, the Sharks are going to have to find success on their man advantage this series.

That may prove to be more difficult than they like though as this St. Louis team has done an amazing job at maintaining their discipline and staying out of the box. The Blues have drawn 13 more penalties than they’ve taken which is tops in the postseason by a wide margin. Columbus and Colorado are next with +7 and only four teams in all have a positive penalty differential (Toronto being the other). The Sharks, meanwhile, are 12th among playoff teams at a -3 differential.

San Jose’s powerplay has the clear edge in the special teams matchup but if the Blues continue to play with discipline the Sharks biggest edge in this series could be all but negated.

On the other side, the Blues powerplay was heating up towards the end of the regular season and carried that success into the first round against Winnipeg where they scored five goals, but it was shut down by Dallas’ outstanding defense with just two goals over 37 minutes of man advantage time.

The Sharks penalty kill had struggled all season but have been excellent in the playoffs at limiting shots and scoring chances, although the goal totals have still piled up. St. Louis should be able to have more success again against this unit and this could be a key matchup in deciding the series. It’s fair to believe the Blues actually hold the edge despite the teal sweeping the stats in the chart.

Keep an eye on the penalty differential and the Blues powerplay finding success. If they continue to stay out of the box, the edge in special teams is a lot closer than the overall stats suggest and may even swing to the Blues side.

 

As previously mentioned, these two teams spent the second round defending the same type of opponent which meant they gave up a lot of scoring chances off the rush and dangerous shots from the slot. On the offensive end, both the Blues and Sharks prefer to create offense from cycling the puck and shooting from the outside, looking for screens and deflections. Attacking off the rush isn’t really their style but with similar attack patterns, it will be interesting to see of either team tries to be more aggressive off the rush.

The edge in the key stats is even entering the series but the team who establishes the more aggressive approach may gain a significant advantage.

 

Both Martin Jones and Jordan Binnington have been exceptional at times this postseason and both have played a large role in their team’s success to this point, so it may come as a surprise to know they sit first and second in total goals allowed through the first two rounds.

Binnington had a fantastic regular season earning a Calder Trophy nomination for top rookie of the year, despite only joining the league in January, but the rookie has shown inconsistency here in the playoffs. That being said, he’s come up huge late in each series when the pressure has been at its highest. After losing two straight to Winnipeg to even that series, he allowed just two goals in each of the final two games to close it out. Against Dallas, when his team trailed three games to two, Binnington shut the door allowing just two goals over the final two games. He’s been calm and collected all season, showing the poise of a veteran Hall of Famer. He hasn’t been as sharp early in each round but has got stronger as each series progressed.

Jones had a nightmare regular season and his playoff numbers don’t look too impressive as a whole as he’s been below average from a statistical output, but we’ve seen Jones put on an unbelievable performance game-to-game since Game 5 of the Vegas series. It’s fair to say the Sharks wouldn’t be here right now if not for the play of Jones.

Statistically, Binnington and the Blues get the edge in net but there’s reasons to be cautious about both. Binnington is still a rookie and the deeper we get into the playoffs, the bigger the moment. Jones is the veteran who’s been here before, but one always wonders if the real Martin Jones will suddenly emerge (the regular season not very good version).

In this case, it might be better to trust the rookie over the veteran.

 

FINAL WORD: Like Boston-Toronto and San Jose-Vegas in the opening round, this is the closest we’ve seen to a true coin flip series and picking a straight up winner isn’t easy. I believe the Blues hold the smallest of edges thanks to their suffocating defense and ability to maintain their cool which should negate the Sharks largest edge. Based on what you’ve read above, you’d probably expect St. Louis to be the pick here.

However, there’s something mysterious around the magic of the Shark Tank and Game 7s this year and if it gets that far, it’s hard to pick against San Jose at home. Analytically, the Blues are likely the slightly better team and should be the pick to win this series – but – (this will sound really cheesy) this year just feels like the Sharks are destined to get back to the Finals. I’ve learned over the years to never tempt the Hockey Gods, so, sometimes cheesy wins, as does the second-best team.

SERIES PICK: SAN JOSE IN 7

SERIES WAGER: NONE (Whether you’re currently holding Futures on these teams or not, the recommendation would be to hold off on a pre-series wager here until after Game 1 and then look at grabbing the loser at a nice plus price. The expectation is for this to be a long back-and-forth series which should present a plus price on both sides at some point)

FUTURES WAGER: NONE (This is a freeroll for us with Futures on both sides to win it all. We own a preseason Cup Futures ticket on St. Louis for +3061 (half-unit) and a Western Conference Champions ticket for +600 which we added prior to Round 1. Our San Jose Cup Future was also added prior to Round 1 for +1400. If you still don’t currently own a Futures ticket on either of these teams, the recommendation would be to not place anything now. I expect both teams to be trailing at some point in this series and since you can grab Cup Futures between each game, you should be able to get better than the current +300 price on either side available now at BetOnline)

2018-19 NHL Playoffs Carolina Hurricanes vs. Boston Bruins Eastern Conference Final Preview

After a shocking opening round which saw both the Metropolitan and Atlantic Division winners knocked out in the East, Round 2 saw both betting favorites win their respective series with the Carolina Hurricanes sweeping the New York Islanders (despite technically being the lower seed) and the new second round Stanley Cup favorite Boston Bruins survive a tight 4-2 series win over the Columbus Blue Jackets. Both series were highlighted by sensational goaltending and solid defense which could set up for a low scoring Eastern Conference Final.

(Check out the Western Conference Final here)

 

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL

 

The Carolina Hurricanes were a beat up and tired team after their seven-game war against the defending champion Washington Capitals in the opening round, which saw them win the final two games to overcome a 3-2 series deficit. They advanced on no rest to face an Islanders team who had over a week off after sweeping Pittsburgh in their opening series. Despite showing early fatigue and losing starting goaltender Petr Mrazek in Game 2, Carolina received exceptional goaltending from veteran Curtis McElhinney and a little puck luck to close out the Isles in four straight in a series which was a lot closer than the sweep would indicate.

The Boston Bruins also overcame a 3-2 series deficit in their opening round to defeat the Toronto Maple Leafs in seven games, showing they can beat a team based on skill and speed. The Bruins then went toe-to-toe with the Columbus Blue Jackets who had swept the top-seeded Lightning in round one. After falling behind two games to one, Boston won the final three games to win the series 4-2 thanks to unbelievable goaltending from Tuukka Rask and a resurgent top line. It was a heavier hitting series and the Bruins showed they can also win against a more physical team.

Now, the script is flipped for Carolina as they are the rested team after having a week off, going against a Boston team coming off a physical six-game series which included an overtime and double overtime game. The Bruins are the betting favorites at a -155 series price (indicating they’re a 60.8% favorite) but do they really hold that large of an edge?

The head-to-head season series was extremely close with the teams splitting two games in Carolina and the Bruins winning the lone game in Boston in overtime. All of those meetings can likely be thrown out though as the Bruins were missing several key players in each game and the meeting in December was the only game where Rask or Mrazek played. Let’s look at who may hold the edge in each of the key categories.

 

It may come as a surprise to some, but the Hurricanes are the top scoring team per 60 minutes in the 2019 Playoffs, thanks largely to their home ice success where they’ve gone 5-0 scoring five goals in four of the five games (and averaging 4.4 overall). It’s been an upward trend for this team since the trade acquisition of Nino Niederreiter and return of Jordan Staal from injury who have bolstered their scoring depth and made them difficult to line-match against. The Canes are also helped by some of the best puck-moving defensemen in the league and with the improved play in goal of Mrazek and McElhinney, everyone is able to take more chances to create offense knowing the man in net is there to bail them out with the big save.

Although Carolina sweeps the offensive edge for season and playoffs, Boston will still undoubtedly possess the single most dangerous line in this series thanks to the awakening of David Pastrnak who sparked the Bruins with four points in their last two games against Columbus. Along with Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron, the trio have scored 16 of Boston’s 40 goals this postseason. That matchup of the Bruins top line against elite shutdown center Jordan Staal and his line will go a long way to determining who wins this series.

 

The Boston defense has been an elite unit all season, but they’ve slipped a bit here in the playoffs. Part of that is due to playing one of the best offensive teams in the first round (Toronto) but could also have a bit to do with missing Kevan Miller who helped stabilize the backend and give Boston one of the deepest bluelines in the league. Miller will still be out to begin this round and they’ll also be without Charlie McAvoy for Game 1 which gives Carolina a clear edge on the backend at least to begin the series.

The Carolina defense was also a strong unit this season and have really turned up the pressure this postseason, but their numbers are also propped up a bit from playing the Islanders in the second round, a rather anemic offense. Keeping those things in mind, there isn’t much separating the quality of these bluelines. The Canes get a sizeable defensive edge in Game 1 with McAvoy out and still get the overall edge based on their current form and the Bruins depth weakened without Miller.

 

There’s no single category here which sees two completely opposite ends of the spectrum than what we see here in Special Teams. The Boston powerplay is an elite unit and the one thing they’ve succeeded in doing all season is putting the puck in the back of the net. They scored seven goals against the Leafs in round one which was arguably the difference in the series and then scored three goals last round against the elite penalty killing unit of Columbus.

The Carolina penalty kill was one of the league’s best units in the regular season, but they slipped a bit down the stretch and have been downright terrible here in the playoffs. They had a ton of difficulty against the elite unit of Washington in round one where they allowed six goals and then allowed three to the Islanders last round, a team with one of the worst powerplays. That doesn’t bode well against this Bruins attack and could be the biggest factor in the series. Carolina will absolutely have to show poise and discipline to stay out of the box, which won’t be easy against the aggressive Bruins who excel at getting under their opponent’s skin.

The other half of Carolina’s special teams hasn’t been any better as the powerplay has served more as a momentum killer than anything, averaging just 1.6 shots and 1 scoring chance per two minute powerplay. The Bruins penalty kill has been average in the playoffs, but average should be well enough to have the edge here and with the significant powerplay advantage, Boston holds a clear edge in Special Teams in what could be the difference in the series.

 

Neither team has been great at getting quality shots from the slot area and both defenses don’t allow many High Danger attempts, so premium scoring opportunities should be low at both ends. With Carolina being the top team at defending this area in their own zone, look for them to hold the edge in the slot battle which may ultimately not be a big factor in this series.

The Bruins will look to use their underrated speed to create scoring chances off the rush where they’ve been effective and with the Canes struggling to slow down their opponent’s rush, Boston will be dangerous with quick strikes, giving them the overall edge in the key stats.

 

This is a bit of a grey-area entering the series as Rod Brind’Amour still hasn’t announced whether Petr Mrazek is fully ready to go or if Curtis McElhinney will start the series. McElhinney was excellent in relief against the Islanders after entering midway through Game 2 when Mrazek suffered an injury. He allowed just four total goals over two-and-a-half games with a .947 overall save percentage and .965 at 5-on-5 which would qualify as the best mark in the playoffs.

If Mrazek doesn’t start Game 1, it’s believed he’ll still start the majority of games this series which is why he’s penciled in for the stats pack. His numbers over the second half of the season were right at the top of the league and although they don’t look as pretty from the first round series against Washington, there’s no question he was exceptional during the big moments when the games were on the line late.

Tuukka Rask had a terrible regular season and posted a career-low overall save percentage of just .912, but he’s caught fire here in the playoffs and is the likely Conn Smythe leader as of this moment for Playoffs MVP. Only Mike Smith of the Calgary Flames posted better overall 5-on-5 numbers this postseason and of all the goaltenders still standing, no one comes close to Rask’s numbers with St. Louis’ Jordan Binnington and Mrazek a distant 2nd and 3rd behind him.

The clear edge in net belongs to Rask entering the series as he’s been the best player on the ice for Boston this postseason but the numbers on the Carolina side are also very good. The biggest question may be whether Mrazek will be as effective when he returns as we’ve seen he’s one of the best at making the big save when the game’s on the line.

 

FINAL WORD: If you’ve been following along to all of my previews before each round, you’ll notice this is the first series where Carolina red and white doesn’t completely dominate the stat graphics. This will be their biggest test yet and first time they won’t be considered the pre-series favorite but this one should also be closer than many expect. The Canes should still hold a slight edge while playing 5-on-5 at both ends of the ice but their penalty kill is going to be the X-factor in the end. Boston’s powerplay is simply too dangerous and a key powerplay goal in a few low scoring games could ultimately be the deciding factor.

SERIES PICK: BOSTON IN 7

SERIES WAGER: BOSTON (-160) (1 unit) (Regardless of what you currently hold for Futures tickets, the recommendation is to grab the series price on Boston to start, with the expectation of them winning Game 1. We’ll look at other options after that)

FUTURES WAGER: NONE (We’re currently holding Carolina to win the Stanley Cup at +2600 and although the expectation is for their ride to end here, due to the fact we’re also holding Cup Futures on both St. Louis and San Jose we’re okay with letting this series play out a bit, knowing we’ll have a dog in the Finals either way. We don’t have much room left to buy Boston at the current +175 price and still turn a profit from our Futures, so we’ll keep an eye on the prices and if Carolina can get a series lead at some point we’ll take a look at the options then)