Tag: Tennis

TENNIS: Preview of Weekend Event: The Winston-Salem Open

Posted on by Ryan Knuppel

The 2024 Winston-Salem Open, an ATP 250 outdoor hard court tournament, is coming to a conclusion this weekend with semi-final matches on Friday and the final Saturday. Sandwiched between back-to-back ATP 1000 events and the US Open, which begins on Monday, the event hasn’t attracted as much talent as it has in years’ past, leaving an unlikely semi-final pairing and a strong chance that someone wins their first ATP title this season.

Let’s take a look back at the early action this week and preview Friday’s semi-final matches.

Past Winston-Salem Winners

2023: Sebastian Baez def. Jiri Lehecka

2022: Adrian Mannarino def. Laslo Djere

2021: Ilya Ivashka def. Mikael Ymer

2019: Hubert Hurkacz def. Benoit Paire

2018: Daniil Medvedev def. Steve Johnson

Early Winston-Salem Recap

The Winston-Salem Open was turned upside down from the start of the competition with each of the top nine seeds losing their first match. Defending champion and top seed Sebastian Baez lost in straight sets in the second round to Borna Coric, while second seed Francisco Cerundolo also lost in straight sets to American Zachary Svajda. Adrian Mannarino, Mariano Navone, Nuno Borges, and Tomas Martin Etcheverry were among the other top seeds eliminated early.

Only two of the top-12 seeds – Lorenzo Sonego and Alex Michelsen – are into the semi-finals. Veterans David Goffin and Pablo Carreno Busta are the other two semi-finalists. Goffin, who hasn’t won on the ATP Tour in two years, beat Rinky Hijikata in the quarter-finals, while Carreno Busta beat qualifier Learner Tien. Michelsen, a 19-year-old American, beat Christopher Eubanks 7-5, 6-7 (6), 7-6 (5) in a competitive quarter-final match and Sonego beat Pavel Kotov in straight sets.

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Semi-Final Matches

David Goffin (-145) vs. Lorenzo Sonego (+105)

This is the third meeting between Sonego and Goffin. They split their previous two matches, with Sonego winning on clay earlier this season at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters and Goffin winning on indoor hard courts at the Open Sud de France in 2021. Sonego is the higher-ranked player, won the most recent match between the two players, and has been on court almost three hours fewer than Goffin, so it’s somewhat strange to see him as a considerable underdog.

I Like Sonego to win this match for all of those reasons. Goffin is 18-8 on hard courts this season, whereas Sonego is just 8-10, but many of Goffin’s wins have come in Challenger events against lesser opponents.

Alex Michelsen (-115) vs. Pablo Carreno Busta (-115)

Michelsen is a player who is on the verge of breaking through as a legit threat on the ATP Tour. He has two Challenger titles and is ranked a career-best No. 52, whereas Carreno Busta is a clay court specialist whose best days are behind him; the 33-year-old was once a top-10 player but is now ranked No. 299. Carreno Busta is 8-6 this season, while Michelsen is 31-26, including 7-3 in his last 10 matches.

Michelsen is also 19-10 on hard courts. He won his first two matches in straight sets and should have tremendous confidence after his close victory over Eubanks. 

Winston-Salem Final Prediction

Assuming a Sonego-Michelsen final, I like the veteran Sonego to take the title. Michelsen’s time is coming soon, but it seems as though he might have to wait a bit longer. Sonego is a three-time winner on the ATP Tour.

Pick: Lorenzo Sonego def. Alex Michelsen

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National Bank Open

Posted on by Ryan Knuppel

The 2024 Canadian Open, or National Bank Open for sponsorship purposes, is an ATP/WTA 1000 tournament taking place in two major Canadian cities. The women’s draw is in Toronto and the men’s draw is in Montreal. It’s one of the oldest tournaments in the world and, as a mandatory 1000 event, has a loaded field with the majority of the world’s top players, minus Olympic gold medal final participants Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz. 

There have also been a few delays due to weather, so there are still some Round of 32 matches to be played as of Friday. Here’s a look at what to expect for the remainder of the tournament this weekend.

ATP National Bank Open Outright Odds

Jannik Sinner -138

Alexander Zverev +450

Andrey Rublev +1100

Grigor Dimitrov +1400

Holger Rune +1800

Taylor Fritz +1800

Casper Ruud +2000

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina +2500

Hubert Hurkacz +2800

Nuno Borges +2800

Early Rounds Recap

Defending champion Jannik Sinner made quick work of his second-round opponent Borna Coric, beating him 6-2, 6-4, and now faces Alejandro Tabilo in the third round. Other top seeds like Alexander Zverev, Casper Ruud, and Andrey Rublev are into the Round of 16, although there have been a few notable upsets already.

Daniil Medvedev, the third seed, lost in three sets to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, while eighth seed Stefanos Tsitsipas lost in the second round to Kei Nishikori, who used a protected ranking to enter the draw. Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime, who finished fourth in the Olympics, also lost his opening match in Toronto. Americans Tommy Paul and Ben Shelton are also out.

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Upcoming Matches

Alexander Zverev (-305) vs. Holger Rune (+230)

Holger Rune is a young player who has been on the cusp of winning major tournaments for more than a year now, but hasn’t been able to establish himself on the same level as players like his opponent Alexander Zverev, Sinner, and Alcaraz. There’s a real opportunity for an upset in this match, however, as Zverev has rarely taken time off this season and should start feeling fatigued at some point.

Zverev, however, looked dominant in his 6-1, 6-1 win over Jordan Thompson. Rune survived a first-round scare against Roberto Bautista Agut and followed that up with an impressive 6-1, 6-3 win over Pablo Carreno Busta. Rune is 1-1 in two career matches against Zverev but they have never played on hard courts, where Rune is 12-5 this year after going just 10-10 last year and 8-9 the year prior. 

Brandon Nakashima (+150) vs. Andrey Rublev (-180)

Rublev has had some frustrating moments this year, but he is better than what the odds for this match suggest and should prevail against Brandon Nakashima. The American beat Rublev earlier this season on clay courts, but Rublev beat Nakashima 6-2, 6-1 in their only meeting on hard courts. They’re both 16-6 on hard courts this season, although Rublev has victories over better players. 

Final Prediction

It’s hard to see anyone but Sinner winning in Toronto. He’s the defending champion, has only lost one match this year against players not named Carlos Alcaraz, and has a favorable draw with Rublev/Nakashima as potential quarter-final opponents and one of Davidovich Fokina/Matteo Arnaldi/Nuno Borges/Nishikori in the semis. Rune is a good pick to win the bottom half of the bracket, but he won’t be able to contend with Sinner.

Pick: Sinner def. Rune

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Preview of Weekend Event: Wimbledon Final

Posted on by Ryan Knuppel

The 2024 Wimbledon Championships have been anything but predictable. Top seeds in the men’s and women’s draws, Jannik Sinner and Iga Swiatek, were eliminated by the quarter-finals. It has still been a good tournament for Italy, however, as seventh seed Jasmine Paolini is into her second consecutive grand slam final and 22-year-old Lorenzeo Musetti is up against Novak Djokovic in the men’s semi-finals. Let’s take a look at the three remaining matches in the tournament.

ATP Wimbledon Semi-Finals

Daniil Medvedev (+260) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (-360)

Daniil Medvedev is looking to reach his second grand slam final this season, but he faces a tough task against world No. 3 and defending Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz. Medvedev was runner-up at the Australian Open, losing to Sinner in five sets after taking a 2-0 lead, and got his revenge over the world No. 1 in the Wimbledon quarter-finals. Alcaraz has had to grind for his wins over the last two weeks, most notably against Frances Tiafoe, who took him to five sets in the third round. 

Medvedev is 2-4 in his career against Alcaraz and 1-1 at Wimbledon. Both of their matches at the All England Club were decided in straight sets, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance on Friday. They’ve both played multiple four and five set matches already and Medvedev should be playing free and loose now that he finally beat Sinner, to whom he had lost five consecutive matches beforehand. 

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Novak Djokovic (-952) vs. Lorenzo Musetti (+540)

Musetti is a major underdog against Novak Djokovic, but he does have a victory over the former world No. 1 and eight-time Wimbledon winner. Djokovic hadn’t played in a month prior to the start of the tournament and had concerns about his health due to a torn meniscus in his right knee. He hasn’t had any issues and should be well rested after getting a walkover win in the quarters against Alex de Minaur. 

This has potential to be Djokovic’s easiest path to a grand slam final, especially since Musetti had never been past the fourth round at any grand slam before this week. However, the Italian beat Djokovic in three sets at the 2023 Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters and has twice taken him to five sets at the French Open. 

WTA Wimbledon Final

Barbora Krejcikova (-140) vs. Jasmine Paolini (+120)

In an unlikely women’s final, world No. 32 Barbora Krejcikova takes on seventh-ranked Paolini, who is the first Italian woman to play in a final at the All England Club. Krejcikova is a former world No. 2 and one-time grand slam winner who has dealt with a debilitating back injury this year but has looked great at Wimbledon, recently earning a three-set win over Elena Rybakina. Paolini beat Donna Vekic in the semis.

There’s good upset potential here as Paolini is being undervalued. She is 30-12 this season and is into her second straight grand slam final, while Krejcikova was just 7-9 coming into Wimbledon.

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TENNIS: Preview of Weekend Event: The End of the Cinch Championships

Posted on by Ryan Knuppel

The Cinch Championships, also known as the Queen’s Club Championship, is one of two ATP 500 grass court tournaments taking place this week and one of the few grass court events leading up to Wimbledon, which begins on July 1. The tournament began with three of the top-10 ranked players in the world, including Carlos Alcaraz, but all three were ousted by the third round. Here’s a quick recap of the action thus far and a look ahead to this weekend’s potential betting matchups.

Early Round Recap

Alcaraz, the top seed in the tournament and recent winner of the French Open, won his opening match against Francisco Cerundolo, but then was upset 7-6 (3), 6-3 by Jack Draper in what was one of the biggest upsets of the year in the second round. Draper is now into the quarter-finals on Friday and will play fifth seed Tommy Paul, who has wins over Sebastian Baez and Alejandro Tabilo. 

Alex de Minaur, the second seed in the tournament, lost his opening round match in three sets to Lorenzo Musetti, who is also into the quarter-finals after beating Brandon Nakashima in the second round. Grigor Dimitrov lost his second-round match against Sebastian Korda, which set up a wild and unexpected quarter-final.

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Quarter-Final Rundown

Jordan Thompson and Taylor Fritz met early Friday in the first of four quarter-finals with the winner advancing to play the winner of Musetti and wildcard Billy Harris who, along with Draper, is one of two Brits left in the tournament. Harris, 29, is in his first career ATP quarter-final and had just one career victory on the ATP Tour before this week. He also has a wildcard for Wimbledon.

Draper and Tommy Paul play in the third quarter-final on Friday and the winner will advance to the semi-finals to meet the winner of Korda and Aussie qualifier Rinky Hijikata, who has upset wins over Frances Tiafoe and Matteo Arnaldi. 

Finals Predictions

This tournament has been littered with upsets, so it wouldn’t be surprising if that trend continues into the weekend. The most unlikely outcome would be a final between Harris, the 156th-ranked player in the world, and Hijikata, who earned one of four qualifying spots in the event. However, if betting the outright markets, Fritz is probably your best bet – assuming he wins his early quarter-final match on Friday.

Fritz was 2-0 in his prior two matches against Thompson and is having one of the best seasons of his career at 26-11. He won his eighth career title at Delray Beach earlier this season and has a very favorable path to the final. This could be an all-American final too as both Paul and Korda are on the other side of the bracket. Paul and Fritz met in the final in Delray Beach earlier this season. 

Finals Pick: Fritz def. Paul in three sets

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French Open Finals Betting Preview

Posted on by Ryan Knuppel

The 2024 French Open is coming to a close this weekend and what a tournament it has been with several clashes between top-ranked players and a couple of major upsets in the women’s draw. The men’s semi-finals take place on Friday. Then Iga Swiatek, a three-time French Open winner who has won 18 consecutive matches, takes on Italian underdog Jasmine Paolini, who is into her first grand slam final.

Novak Djokovic withdrew from the tournament after reaching the quarter-finals, but the men’s final will be one worth watching, featuring either Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner vs. Casper Ruud or Alexander Zverev.

Let’s take a look at the women’s final and speculate what the men’s final might look like.

WTA French Open Final

Jasmine Paolini (+900) vs. Iga Swiatek (-1400)

It’s hard to see anyone beating Swiatek at Roland Garros, which makes straight-up betting on the women’s French Open final a little tricky. At -1400, there’s very little incentive to bet on the world No. 1. And yet, there’s still some risk involved even though she has won 18 consecutive matches, has only lost 8 games combined in her last three matches, and is 2-0 in her career against Paolini.

However, Swiatek hasn’t played Paolini since 2022 and the 28-year-old Italian is on some kind of run at Roland Garros. Her two most recent victories came against Elena Rybakina, the world No. 4, and Mirra Andreeva, a 17-year-old Russian sensation who earned a spot in the semi-finals with a win against Aryna Sabalenka. Paolini is 22-10 this season, including 10-3 on clay courts, whereas Swiatek is 4-4, including 20-1 on clay.

The games total is a better betting market for the women’s French Open final. BetOnline has the number at 17.5, with over and under odds of +100 and -120. The over is a good bet here since it could still hit even with a Swiatek sweep. With so much on the line, Paolini should at least make things interesting in one set. A 6-4, 6-2 victory for Swiatek still covers the total. 

ATP French Open Final

There’s a lot to be determined here. Alcaraz and Zverev are the betting favorites at BetOnline, however Sinner has lost only twice this season and Ruud is a two-time runner-up at Roland Garros. Any combination of players in the final is plausible. I like Alcaraz to beat Sinner in the first of two semi-finals, however. Alcaraz has been in fine form for the last two weeks, is arguably the best clay court player on the ATP Tour, and is one of two players to beat Sinner this season.

In the second semi-final, Ruud is a good pick considering he has plus money at +110 tennis odds. He had the good fortune of not having to play in the quarter-finals as his opponent – Djokovic – withdrew, so he should be fresh. He has played four hours fewer than Zverev at Roland Garros and is 1-0 against the German on clay, beating him in straight sets in last year’s French Open semi-finals. 

Assuming an Alcaraz-Ruud final, I still like Alcaraz to prevail and win his third grand slam. A victory at Roland Garros would leave only the Australian Open for the career grand slam.

Australian Open Weekend Preview

Posted on by Ryan Knuppel

The 2024 Australian Open, the first of four grand slams on the tennis calendar, is heading into the second week of action and there has already been some incredible matches and major upsets. While the men’s draw has largely gone as expected, the women’s draw is wide open with just eight of the top-20 players still in contention.

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First Week Recap

The biggest upset in the first round – and easily the match of the tournament – saw Anna Blinkova defeat third seed Elena Rybakina in a dramatic three-set affair that featured a 42-point tiebreak in the third set. This set the record for longest tiebreak in a women’s grand slam match. Fifth seed Jessica Pegula, sixth seed Ons Jabeur, and eight seed Maria Sakkari all lost in the second round. Mirra Andreeva, a 16-year-old Russian sensation, beat Jabeur and and won her third-round match against Diane Parry.

In contrast, nine of the top-10 men’s players and 16 of the top-20 are still in contention heading into Day 7 of competition on Friday overnight. Novak Djokovic has dropped a couple of sets but is nonetheless looking like the favorite, although Jannik Sinner, the fourth seed, is also playing well and hasn’t dropped a set yet. 

Weekend Betting Matchups

Daniil Medvedv (-525) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime (+420)

Felix Auger-Aliassime is a player who many projected to have grand slam success by this point in his career, yet he has just one semi-final appearance and his best result in Australia is a quarter-final appearance in 2022. He’s playing great tennis through his first two matches in Melbourne, but now faces Daniil Medvedev, who he is 0-6 against. 

It’s worth noting, however, that Auger-Aliassime went five sets with Medvedev in the 2022 Australian Open quarter-finals and will be motivated to avenge that loss. He’s simply too good, albeit inconsistent, to keep losing to Medvedev. 

Casper Ruud (-255) vs. Cameron Norrie (+215)

Casper Ruud takes on Cameron Norrie in one of the most anticipated third-round matches in the men’s draw. Ruud is 3-0 in three career matches against Norrie, but this is another match with decent upset potential as Norrie is the slightly better hard courts player. He’s also coming off of a momentum-building five-set win over Giulio Zeppieri in which he trailed 2-0. 

Viktoria Azarenka (+114) vs. Jelena Ostapenko (-134)

Viktoria Azarenka is 3-0 in three career matches against Jelena Ostapenko and two of those victories have been on hard courts. She even beat Ostapenko in three sets two weeks ago at the Brisbane Internation. However, there’s a lot more to consider for this matchup.

Ostapenko is 9-1 in her last 10 matches, winning the Adelaide International before the Open with wins over Daria Kasatkina, Caroline Garcia, and Ekaterina Alexandrova. She’s also higher ranked than Azarenka and has spent nearly 1 hour and 30 minutes less time on court than Azarenka in Melbourne. Ostapenko should prevail in a close, three-set match.

Aryna Sabalenka (-650) vs. Amanda Anisimova (+475)

If there’s ever a matchup with strong upset potential in the women’s draw this weekend it’s Sabalenka vs. Amanda Anisimova. Despite being a major betting underdog, Anisimova is 4-1 in five career matches against Sabalenka and even has a win over her in the 2019 Australian Open. Anisimova is also playing at an elite level in her return to tennis after a six-month absence. She hasn’t dropped a set in her three victories.

Sabalenka, the defending champion, won’t go down easy, however, as she has lost just six games in three matches and is coming off a remarkable performance in a 6-0, 6-0 win over Lesia Tsurenko. You can bet on this tournament at one of our favorite tennis bookmakers.

Preview of the Weekend Finals at the Adelaide International

Posted on by Ryan Knuppel

The 2024 Adelaide International is coming to a close this weekend, which means we’re close to the start of the Australian Open, the first of four grand slams on the tennis calendar. The Adelaide International features both a men’s and women’s draw and has had some incredible tennis action thus far with some notable upsets. None of the top five seeds in either draw advanced to the finals.

In the men’s final, unseeded Jack Draper chases his first career ATP title against Jiri Lehecka, who also has yet to win a championship. Both players made their first career final last year. Sixth seed Jelena Ostapenko takes on unseeded Daria Kasatkina in the women’s final. Let’s take a look at how we got here and preview the two finals.

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Men’s Draw Recap

The men’s draw featured top seeds Tommy Paul, Nicolas Jarry, Sebastian Korda, Lorenzo Musetti, and Sebastian Baez. Paul, the top seed, lost to Draper in the quarter-finals. Jarry, the second seed, was also out in the quarters, losing to Lehecka, who then beat Korda in the semi-finals. Draper beat eighth seed Alexander Bublik 7-6 (2), 6-4 in the semi-finals.

Women’s Draw Recap

The women’s draw featured more top-ranked players than the men’s, with Brisbane International winner and 2023 Australian Open finalist Elena Rybakina headlining the field. She lost in the quarter-finals to Ekaterina Alexandrova, who then lost to Ostapenko in the semi-finals. Second seed Jessica Pegula reached the semi-finals, but withdrew from the match due to an illness, leaving Kasatkina with a bye through to the finals. It was the second consecutive walkover win for Kasatkina, who has only had to play two matches in Adelaide, both against qualifiers.

Finals Betting Previews

Jiri Lehecka vs. Jack Draper

Lehecka and Draper play just after midnight ET on Saturday morning for the $100,000 grand prize but, more importantly, the chance to win for the first time on the ATP Tour. Both players are 22 years old and could be among the future stars of the sport.

They’ve never played each other, but Lehecka has the slight advantage in conditioning based on time on court. He has played six hours and 21 minutes this week compared to Draper, who has been on court for 7 hours and 53 minutes. However, Draper has the edge on the hard court surface with a combined record of 31-14 dating back to 2022. Lehecka is 27-19 during that same span. This should be a tight, three-set match, but Draper has yet to lose this season and had a strong finish to the 2023 season. He’s the best pick to win the match.

Jelena Ostapenko vs. Daria Kasatkina

This is a tough one as Kasatkina has played only two matches in Adelaide and hasn’t exactly faced formidable opponents, beating qualifiers Anna Kalinskaya and Claire Liu. The rest may serve her well, but she’s also facing an opponent whom she has had troubles against in her career. Kasatkina is just 2-5 in seven matches against Ostapenko, however has the win in the lone match on hard courts between the two players – she beat Ostapenko 6-3, 6-2 in the 2017 U.S. Open.

Kasatkina is the betting underdog here, but offers good value considering the rest she has had and the fact she has a better career winning percentage on hard courts (152-107 career record compared to 129-102 for Ostapenko).

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Davis Cup Finals Weekend Preview

Posted on by Tyler Vaysman

The 2023 Davis Cup is coming to a conclusion, with just four teams remaining as of Friday, November 24. The final four teams – Serbia, Australia, Finland, and Italy – meet in head-to-head semi-final matches on Friday and Saturday with the champion being crowned Sunday. Each semi-final involves three matches, two singles and one doubles. Serbia was the last of these four nations to win the Davis Cup, doing so in 2010. Australia last won in 2003 and Italy won in 1976. Finland has never been to the championship of the Davis Cup Finals.

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The Final 4: How They Got Here

Australia

Australia finished second in Group B behind Great Britain, securing one of the eight quarter-final spots in the four round robin groups. Players like Alex de Minaur, Thanasi Kokkinakis, and Max Purcell contributed to Australia’s qualification efforts. The Aussies scored a 2-1 victory over Czech Republic in the semi-finals. Jordan Thompson dropped the first match, but de Minaur defeated Jiří Lehečka in three sets and the duo of Purcell and Matthew Ebden beat Lehečka and Adam Pavlásek.

Finland

Finland, which is playing Australia in the first of two semi-final matches on Friday, is a massive underdog in the Davis Cup Finals despite a strong run of play dating back to the Group Stage. Finland finished second in Group D, behind the Netherlands and ahead of the United States. They scored a surprise 2-1 victory over defending champions Canada in the quarterfinals, with the team of Otto Virtanen and Harri Heliovaara scoring the knockout blow of Alexis Galarneau and Vasek Pospisil.

Serbia

Led by Nitto ATP Finals winner and world No. 1 Novak Djokovic, Serbia finished second in Group C behind Czech Republic, although Djokovic only competed in one of three matches for the country in the round robin. Serbia was the lone quarter-final team to sweep its opponent, beating Great Britain 2-0 by winning the first two singles matches. Miomir Kecmanovic beat Jack Draper 7-6 (2), 7-6 (6) and Djokovic beat Cameron Norrie 6-4, 6-4.

Italy

The Italians finished second behind Canada in Group A and punched their ticket to the semifinals with a 2-1 win over the Netherlands in the quarterfinals. After a loss in the first match, Jannik Sinner defeated Tallon Griekspoor in straight sets and Sinner and Lorenzo Sonego secured the victory with a doubles win over Griekspoor and Wesley Koolhof.

Davis Cup Finals Prediction

Australia is the heavy betting favorite in the first semifinal against Finland, especially since the European nation has never been this far in the tournament and are only the first Scandinavian country to reach this point in the tournament since Sweden in 2007. Australia has the advantage in the first two matches with Alexei Popyrin playing Otto Virtanen and de Minaur up against Emil Ruusuvuori.

The second semifinal is a little tougher to predict and will feature the marquee matchup between Djokovic and Jannik Sinner. Italy can still beat Serbia if Sinner loses the match, but the young Italian has actually played quite well against Djokovic in the past – he beat him in three sets earlier this month in the ATP Finals and took him to five sets at Wimbledon in 2022. 

Davis Cup Finals Pick: Italy def. Australia