The 2024 Wimbledon Championships have been anything but predictable. Top seeds in the men’s and women’s draws, Jannik Sinner and Iga Swiatek, were eliminated by the quarter-finals. It has still been a good tournament for Italy, however, as seventh seed Jasmine Paolini is into her second consecutive grand slam final and 22-year-old Lorenzeo Musetti is up against Novak Djokovic in the men’s semi-finals. Let’s take a look at the three remaining matches in the tournament.
ATP Wimbledon Semi-Finals
Daniil Medvedev (+260) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (-360)
Daniil Medvedev is looking to reach his second grand slam final this season, but he faces a tough task against world No. 3 and defending Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz. Medvedev was runner-up at the Australian Open, losing to Sinner in five sets after taking a 2-0 lead, and got his revenge over the world No. 1 in the Wimbledon quarter-finals. Alcaraz has had to grind for his wins over the last two weeks, most notably against Frances Tiafoe, who took him to five sets in the third round.
Medvedev is 2-4 in his career against Alcaraz and 1-1 at Wimbledon. Both of their matches at the All England Club were decided in straight sets, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance on Friday. They’ve both played multiple four and five set matches already and Medvedev should be playing free and loose now that he finally beat Sinner, to whom he had lost five consecutive matches beforehand.
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Novak Djokovic (-952) vs. Lorenzo Musetti (+540)
Musetti is a major underdog against Novak Djokovic, but he does have a victory over the former world No. 1 and eight-time Wimbledon winner. Djokovic hadn’t played in a month prior to the start of the tournament and had concerns about his health due to a torn meniscus in his right knee. He hasn’t had any issues and should be well rested after getting a walkover win in the quarters against Alex de Minaur.
This has potential to be Djokovic’s easiest path to a grand slam final, especially since Musetti had never been past the fourth round at any grand slam before this week. However, the Italian beat Djokovic in three sets at the 2023 Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters and has twice taken him to five sets at the French Open.
WTA Wimbledon Final
Barbora Krejcikova (-140) vs. Jasmine Paolini (+120)
In an unlikely women’s final, world No. 32 Barbora Krejcikova takes on seventh-ranked Paolini, who is the first Italian woman to play in a final at the All England Club. Krejcikova is a former world No. 2 and one-time grand slam winner who has dealt with a debilitating back injury this year but has looked great at Wimbledon, recently earning a three-set win over Elena Rybakina. Paolini beat Donna Vekic in the semis.
There’s good upset potential here as Paolini is being undervalued. She is 30-12 this season and is into her second straight grand slam final, while Krejcikova was just 7-9 coming into Wimbledon.